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OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard

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Mikemarc

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Nov 28, 2005
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Will I be okay going to a USA hockey party in Morristown at 7am - returning after the game around 1pm?

I live in Westfield. Will the ride be tough?
 
D

DHajekRC1984

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Jul 20, 2025
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Freaking AcuWeather still has 1-3" for Ringoes... lol.

I got an 87 year old Home Bound guy I care for in South Brunswick. He has a full time live in caretaker.... and finding someone to shovel-plow the 50' grass driveway is impossible... 1 guy I found wants $300 to do 3" and much more if more. Yikes. Got his groceries delivered this morning seeing this thread.
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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Postman_1 said:
Honest question, anyway this thing could bust this late into it? I'm not talking no snow at all but say less than 5-6" for Central Jersey. (Mercer area)
Click to expand...
I suppose there is a chance give there are some models in the 6-10 range at their lower range and just some shifts east could make big differences...we could have a boxing day setup somewhat all maybe not as extreme
...almost all models have concentrated highest totals at the coast.
 
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WhiteBus

WhiteBus

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Oct 4, 2011
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Sun's out, 50 degrees. Out for a bike ride. Nothing looks like there will be a huge storm in just over 24 hours. Temps through the entire storm in Philly will not get below 30 degrees, mostly holding at 32. Lots of crazy stuff.
Get out and enjoy the day! It will be good for your back while you're shoveling late tomorrow and all day Monday! 😃
Back on the bike!
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
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A few commnts on the NBM (model blend) and ratios. Some think the high snow amounts on the NBM are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF (precip) vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow (which means >10:1, snow:liquid ratio) even along the coast, with a 1.3 ratio at the coast in Long Branch (28.1" snow vs. 2.1" QPF) and especially inland with a 15:1 ration in Allentown (1.1" of QPF giving 16.2" of snow. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 snowfall maps are likely underestimates - if the NBM ratios are correct. We'll see soon.

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C

ClassOf02v.2

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Sep 30, 2010
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Can we talk about the wind forecast for a minute? I know they’re saying very windy near the coast, but how about more inland — say southern Hunterdon County near the PA border? I live in an area with a ton of dead ash trees (thanks emerald ash borer) that are prone to coming down and knocking out power.
 
R

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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Postman_1 said:
Honest question, anyway this thing could bust this late into it? I'm not talking no snow at all but say less than 5-6" for Central Jersey. (Mercer area)
Click to expand...
Yes, 5-6" for CNJ/95 is not an impossibility at all given how fragile this setup is - did you see the low end 10% probability snowfall map I posted a few hours ago showing 1-2" for most? Being 24 hours out and no big changes (well Euro hasn't run yet) with the 12Z models, that low probability map is well out of date now (it was generated 2 model cycles ago around 3 am or ~36 hours out) - maybe that's a 1% probability now - another way to look at it is that the 10% probability map now might be more like a 4-6" snow for 95 instead of the 12-16" being forecast.

When they update the snowfall maps, look at these low/high probability maps - they're interesting and they show the confidence level in the forecast. For 1/25, 36 hours out the low end maps were maybe 3-5" vs. a forecast of 12-18", so they had a lot more confidence in that forecast.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
 
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RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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Mikemarc said:
Will I be okay going to a USA hockey party in Morristown at 7am - returning after the game around 1pm?

I live in Westfield. Will the ride be tough?
Click to expand...
You should be fine. Light snow, melting on paved surfaces is the worst case up until probably 1-2 pm. Visibility could be an issue during periods of maybe moderate snow, but roads should be just wet.
 
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Postman_1

Postman_1

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Mar 12, 2017
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RU848789 said:
Yes, 5-6" for CNJ/95 is not an impossibility at all given how fragile this setup is - did you see the low end 10% probability snowfall map I posted a few hours ago showing 1-2" for most? Being 24 hours out and no big changes (well Euro hasn't run yet) with the 12Z models, that low probability map is well out of date now (it was generated 2 model cycles ago around 3 am or ~36 hours out) - maybe that's a 1% probability now - another way to look at it is that the 10% probability map now might be more like a 4-6" snow for 95 instead of the 12-16" being forecast.

When they update the snowfall maps, look at these low/high probability maps - they're interesting and they show the confidence level in the forecast. For 1/25, 36 hours out the low end maps were maybe 3-5" vs. a forecast of 12-18", so they had a lot more confidence in that forecast.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
Click to expand...
Last time in January they canceled work for me on Friday for that Monday. As of yesterday we were still scheduled to show up on Monday. We are supposed to get way more snow. Im hoping they shut it down.

Just saw the Euro ticked west a bit
 
M

mikebal9

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Oct 15, 2005
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kupuna133 said:
Plans on staying a couple of days? If she doesn’t like driving in bad weather why would she be travelling during a storm that will take 2 days to leave the area?
Click to expand...
My son has a playoff basketball game tonight at 6 in Bound Brook. She lives in Mt Laurel. She was going to drive up for the game and then head home early tomorrow morning.
 
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B

BigEastPhil

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Nov 25, 2007
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The weather channel has a non weather show on right now. Lol.

Weird !

24 hours prior to the Blizzard Eve!

Fox Weather rightfully devoting 24 / 7 to the storm!
 
R

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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RU848789 said:
Just woke up from a nap and my wife and I are listening to Ed Wong on WRSU, as tonight is the 19th Melody Reunion (helped Ed out with moving/setting up at the Elks last night); he still has my favorite radio show anywhere. Anyway, just looked at the insane NAM and HRRR runs - if any of these bomb models actually verify, we're talking 2-3 feet of snow, which would be paralyzing, like Jan-96 or 12/26/2010 (Boxing Day Blizzard) and a few others. It's not a fantasy, but hard to "predict" that as a forecaster, which is why I still think the NWS forecast of 8-12" NW, 12-16" for 95 and 16-20" for the coast as an "average" between the bombs and the less snowy camp.

And nothing has changed at 12Z to make anyone want to change their forecasts, IMO other than maybe adding an inch or two because the Euro just had its best run; also the Euro bumping up snowfall 2-3" across the board will certainly give comfort to forecasters worrying about a major bust, led by the Euro, which has been a concern since that weak run at 0Z last night. Anyway here's the usual model summary below - will update as models come out...

Keep in mind these are all at 10:1 ratios: ratios should be less than that for the first several hours with marginal temps, but then as temps drop below 32F and intensity goes up ratios should go above 10:1 and could go well above that for most with great dendrite formation aloft - but with fairly high winds, dendrites might break up negating that. Since predicting ratios can be such a crap shoot, I usually just use the 10:1 numbers, but if we don't get a lot of breakage, 12-15: ratios are more likely for at least the 2nd half of the event. We'll see.
  • 12Z NAM is an historic bomb w/ a 24" line from New Hope to SI and 16-24" NW of that line and 24-36" SE of that
    • Very similar to 6Z and amazingly, the last 4 runs have been like this.
  • 12Z HRRR is out of its range, but it shows 12-24" for most just through 7 am Monday
  • 12Z RGEM has 5-8" NW, 8-12" for 95, and 12-16" towards the coast (up 1-2" vs 6Z)
  • 12Z ICON has 7-9" NW, 9-13" for 95 and 13-16" towards the coast (fairly similar to 6Z)
  • 12Z GFS has 12-16" NW, 16-22" for 95 and 22-26" for parts of the coast (close to historic and fairly similar to 6Z)
  • 12Z AIGFS has 8-11" NW, 11-15" for 95 and 15-20" towards the coast (2-3" less than 6Z - less precip)
  • 12Z CMC has 5-9" NW, 9-13" for 95 and 13-17" towards the coast (1-2" snowier than 0Z)
  • 12Z UK roughly (it has some odd precip pockets) has 8-12" for NW to 95 and 12-16" for 95 to the coast (similar to 0Z)
  • 12Z HREF (first time the model has a complete storm run) has 12-16" NW, 16-22" for 95 and 22-28" towards the coast
  • 12Z Euro-AIFS is 7-10" NW, 10-13" for 95 and 13-17" towards the coast (about 1" more than 6Z)
  • And last but not least, the 12Z Euro has 7-9" NW, 9-12" for 95 and 12-15" towards the coast - this is the snowiest Euro run yet (another 2-3" increase).
Click to expand...

A bit more on that Euro run and its history for this storm. It has been a laggard for the last 36 hours after coming on board for at least a moderate snowfall on Wednesday night indicating that maybe the storm wouldn't be a whiff. For the last 6 runs it has consistently been on the low side of snowfall from the models, but today's 12Z run puts it firmly in the middle of the pack and it actually took away the low tier of models, since the CMC and RGEM also bumped up a bit (see the animation below). The Euro not being at the bottom of the pack will also give forecasters more confidence that their forecasts won't bust low - it doesn't mean forecasts will now go way up, although I could see a 1-2" bump based on several models bumping up. Hopefully it has no more surprises for us.

https://media.discordapp.net/attach...78fa3c85cc9d6482a1026e&=&width=825&height=638
 
Postman_1

Postman_1

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Blizzard Warning now for a lot of our area!

Blizzard Warning​

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
154 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

NJZ008-010-012-015-220800-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T0900Z-260223T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/
Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-
Including the cities of Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, and
Morristown
154 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
between 16 and 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, and Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with
your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 
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RU848789

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RU848789 said:
Just woke up from a nap and my wife and I are listening to Ed Wong on WRSU, as tonight is the 19th Melody Reunion (helped Ed out with moving/setting up at the Elks last night); he still has my favorite radio show anywhere. Anyway, just looked at the insane NAM and HRRR runs - if any of these bomb models actually verify, we're talking 2-3 feet of snow, which would be paralyzing, like Jan-96 or 12/26/2010 (Boxing Day Blizzard) and a few others. It's not a fantasy, but hard to "predict" that as a forecaster, which is why I still think the NWS forecast of 8-12" NW, 12-16" for 95 and 16-20" for the coast as an "average" between the bombs and the less snowy camp.

And nothing has changed at 12Z to make anyone want to change their forecasts, IMO other than maybe adding an inch or two because the Euro just had its best run; also the Euro bumping up snowfall 2-3" across the board will certainly give comfort to forecasters worrying about a major bust, led by the Euro, which has been a concern since that weak run at 0Z last night. Anyway here's the usual model summary below - will update as models come out...

Keep in mind these are all at 10:1 ratios: ratios should be less than that for the first several hours with marginal temps, but then as temps drop below 32F and intensity goes up ratios should go above 10:1 and could go well above that for most with great dendrite formation aloft - but with fairly high winds, dendrites might break up negating that. Since predicting ratios can be such a crap shoot, I usually just use the 10:1 numbers, but if we don't get a lot of breakage, 12-15: ratios are more likely for at least the 2nd half of the event. We'll see.
  • 12Z NAM is an historic bomb w/ a 24" line from New Hope to SI and 16-24" NW of that line and 24-36" SE of that
    • Very similar to 6Z and amazingly, the last 4 runs have been like this.
  • 12Z HRRR is out of its range, but it shows 12-24" for most just through 7 am Monday
  • 12Z RGEM has 5-8" NW, 8-12" for 95, and 12-16" towards the coast (1-2" up from 6Z)
  • 12Z ICON has 7-9" NW, 9-13" for 95 and 13-16" towards the coast (fairly similar to 6Z)
  • 12Z GFS has 12-16" NW, 16-22" for 95 and 22-26" for parts of the coast (close to historic and fairly similar to 6Z)
  • 12Z AIGFS has 8-11" NW, 11-15" for 95 and 15-20" towards the coast (2-3" less than 6Z - less precip)
  • 12Z CMC has 5-9" NW, 9-13" for 95 and 13-17" towards the coast (1-2" more than at 0Z)
  • 12Z UK roughly (it has some odd precip pockets) has 8-12" for NW to 95 and 12-16" for 95 to the coast (similar to 0Z)
  • 12Z HREF (first time the model has a complete storm run) has 12-16" NW, 16-22" for 95 and 22-28" towards the coast
  • 12Z Euro-AIFS is 7-10" NW, 10-13" for 95 and 13-17" towards the coast (about 1" more than 6Z)
  • And last but not least, the 12Z Euro has 7-9" NW, 9-12" for 95 and 12-15" towards the coast - this is the snowiest Euro run yet (another 2-3" increase).
Click to expand...

Blizzard and Winter Storm Warnings Expanded

The blizzard warnings were extended about a county inland by the NWS (counties in orange) and those watches for counties in NEPA were converted to warnings (pink), as the NWS clearly has more confidence in more snowfall making it that far inland so they upped snowfall for everyone especially west of 95. Below is a bulleted summary of the blizzard/winter storm warnings. Hopefully we'll see a new NWS map soon, as snowfall amounts have been increased, as per these warning amounts. Specifically, the warning for Somerset/Middlesex/Mercer is for 16-20" of snow and the map had us at 12-16" (and this goes for everyone). The links below have the full text for all of the warnings.

Blizzard Warnings from the NWS-Philly and NYC
  • Blizzard Warning for Atlantic-Cape May Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 12 and 20 inches and winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
  • Blizzard Warning for Gloucester-Camden-NW Burlington-Cumberland-Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 14 and 20 inches and winds gusting as high as 45 mph.
  • Blizzard Warning for Monmouth-Ocean-SE Burlington Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 15 and 20 inches and winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
  • Blizzard Warning for Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 16 and 20 inches and winds gusting as high as 45 mph.
  • Blizzard Warning for Passaic-Hudson-Bergen-Essex-Union Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 12 and 18 inches and winds gusting as high as 50 mph
  • Blizzard Warning for Westchester-Manhattan-Bronx-Staten Island-Brooklyn-Suffolk-Queens-Nassau Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 15 and 20 inches and winds gusting as high as 55-60 mph
  • Blizzard Warning for N Westchester-Rockland Counties for blizzard conditions with total snow accumulations between 11 and 15 inches and winds gusting as high as 45 mph
  • Note: blizzard warnings are also up for Delaware and Connecticut, as well as Rhode Island/Mass (not including those details)
Winter Storm Warnings from the NWS-Philly and NYC (very close to blizzard conditions, looking at the winds)
  • Winter Storm Warning for Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton Counties for total snow accumulations between 8 and 16 inches and winds gusting as high as 45 mph
  • Winter Storm Warning for Delaware-Philadelphia-Chester-Montgomery-Bucks Counties for total snow accumulations between 14 and 18inches and winds gusting as high as 40 mph
  • Winter Storm Warning for Sussex-Warren-Hunterdon Counties for total snow accumulations between 13 and 18 inches and winds gusting as high as 45 mph
  • Winter Storm Warning for Salem County for total snow accumulations between 14 and 18 inches and winds gusting as high as 40 mph
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=blizzard warning
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter storm warning

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S

Scarlet4Shore

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Feb 27, 2009
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I just pray I don't lose power. Where I live, we lose power randomly on a good day. With the forecasted winds, I always have a go bag ready just in case.
 
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koleszar

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Jan 1, 2010
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Dowling's Revenge said:
does seem like with these warm temperatures there still could be bust potential
Click to expand...
That's it, keep up the positive vibes. Break out the patio furniture while you're at it. As for me, with a farm (animals) I have no choice but to prep like the end of days is upon us. It's a whole production, wood to the house, generators/snowblower/front loader gassed and in position, barns and chicken coop all cleaned out, 110 gallons of water in drums. It sucks.
 
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Smols

Smols

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koleszar said:
That's it, keep up the positive vibes. Break out the patio furniture while you're at it. As for me, with a farm (animals) I have no choice but to prep like the end of days is upon us. It's a whole production, wood to the house, generators/snowblower/front loader gassed and in position, barns and chicken coop all cleaned out, 110 gallons of water in drums. It sucks.
Click to expand...
Taking care of barnyard animals in the winter is no fun.
 
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