OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
Euro is 3-4 nw nj 4-6 for most of central nj but 6-10 for mom/ocean..10-15 coast
Thats if all snow verbaim..i dont know temp issues will play role there
Thats if all snow verbaim..i dont know temp issues will play role there
Euro clown map you can see the gradient issues here....so the forecasting nightmare is are getting the 3-6/ 4-8 type storm for most of nj away from coast with 6-12 there or do we get widespread 8-16 in NJ with 12-20 toward coast
by the way tomorrow will be beautiful with continued melting of glaciers with highs in the upper 40s touching 50 in some spots
my guess is early calls will say 3-6 from nw nj....6-9 maybe 5-8 central jersey and then 8-12 to the coast for starters and move from there tomorrow as models coalece or dont
Euro finally caved to the GFS 30 minutes ago, which seemed inevitable last night. What an incredible modeling coup for the GFS - assuming we have no major backtracking in the models between now and the storm and we're now just inside 48 hours from the start of the event. As per the quoted post above with all of the 12Z model summaries, expect watches to go up shortly for the potential for 6"+ for everyone and I'd also expect the updated NWS maps to look somewhat like the NBM map (below).
And if things keep trending the way they have been 12-18" is on the table, especially for 95 towards the coast (with 8-12" NW of 95); it also seems very unlikely now that we'll see <4" anywhere as no models are showing even close to that (except well NW). If we see those kinds of numbers, along with wind gusts of 40+ mph, blizzard conditions might even materialize, especially at/near the coast.
FWIW, TWC is forecasting 3-5" well NW of 95, 5-8" for 95, and 8-12" towards the coast and said those numbers could go up. Channel 7 only has 1-3" for NW of 95 and 3-6" for 95 to the coast, but that has to go up (Lee has been a bit too stubborn on this one, IMO.). Steve D and DT are probably in hiding, lol. Will post those maps shortly.
This could be a very serious impactful storm, so take care to have your survival kit in your car if you have to travel in it - i personally love the snow, but hope people are safe out there. Conditions likely won't be too bad before sunset on Sunday, especially for 95 and SE, as temps will likely be 33-35F before then and some of the snow will likely melt (and could see rain to start) and have difficulty accumulating on paved surfaces. However, once night falls and intensity picks up, conditions will likely go downhill quickly. We will also likely have at least minor tidal flooding.
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See my detailed model summary post on the last page - we no longer have big disagreements among the models (the discrepancies now are about the high end of the snow). Euro caved, no models showing anything <4" anywhere except well NW and all show at least 6"+ for 95 and more towards the coast - and about half the models show 12"+ amounts at the coast and 8"+ amounts for 95.
i dont think you can call it a cave necessarily because it has less than half the gfs amounts...there seems to be 2 model camps right now the euro, canadian, ukie vs the gfs nam
the runs tonight and tomorrow are huge for getting the details right
the runs tonight and tomorrow are huge for getting the details right
caved as far as the track - which is what is most important right now. QPF will get clearer closer to storm time
I moved by 6pm flight Sunday up to 11:30 am, hoping I can get outta town before it gets too bad.
Good luck to my wife shoveling us out Monday. I’m sure I won’t get an earful for that!
Good luck to my wife shoveling us out Monday. I’m sure I won’t get an earful for that!
BAC, Numbers, just want to say how much time I appreciate you guys put into this and I appreciate you both.
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That's a definite "oh wow"... things have certainly changed.
This Blows.
My snow or more like ice pack finally started to melt around my house/barns and I was finally able to get the animals out into their pastures. I literally have "sh*t piles" of work in my barns to get done in just two days.
I enjoy the fighting but don't read much of weather sh*t . if we could focus more on the back and forth and eliminate the gPzH1 model bullsh*t would significantly up the interest for many I suspect
It's incredibly fascinating. I never knew how much weather could get some grown men so wound up
You can't anymore post site merger. That feature sadly disappeared.
How‘s the timing looking for NJSIAA team wrestling finals on Sunday at RU?
4 matches apiece at noon and 2:30. Teams coming from all over the state pending tonight’s semifinal results.
4 matches apiece at noon and 2:30. Teams coming from all over the state pending tonight’s semifinal results.
you can't report them anymore either. I don't mean tattling. But reporting dupes and other house cleaning stuff.
I really don't think conditions will be too bad before sunset, but that's a guess 48 hours out and I'd want to revisit that tomorrow, in case models shift and timing shifts. Before sunset is modeled to be lighter snow with marginal temps which is unlikely to accumulate on paved surfaces, especially treated ones, so highways and main secondary roads should be fine. After dark with heavier snow and cooling temps, I would think road conditions will deteriorate, even on treated roads if rates are heavy enough.
Mt Holly disco
KEY MESSAGE 2...A winter storm Sunday into Monday is expected
to bring multiple hazards to much of the area.
A potent H5 trough centered over the Midwest Saturday will
shift eastward towards the region Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. At the surface, low pressure will begin to
develop over the southeastern US in the exit region of the
trough. From there, the low is expected to deepen as it tracks
northeastward off the Mid- Atlantic Coast through Sunday
afternoon and into Sunday night.
Some discrepancies remain amongst model guidance, with the GFS
maintaining a track close to the coast, and significant snowfall
accumulations across the entire region. The ECM remains farther
offshore, but there has been a northwestward shift over the
past couple of model runs. Other deterministic guidance
generally falls into one of these two camps, but both outcomes
would result in accumulating snow across at least portions of
the area. Both the 12Z GEFS and EC Ensemble suites feature a
large consensus in a low track that will be close enough to the
coast to bring potentially significant impacts. In addition to
the surface cyclone off the coast, an inverted trough is
depicted in most guidance, though there is some variance in its
placement and intensity. However, these features tend to
increase snowfall amounts and rates where they set up.
The current expectation is for light precipitation to begin
overspreading the region from southwest to northeast some time
overnight Saturday night. As the low begins to approach from the
southwest Sunday afternoon, precipitation rates should begin to
increase. Temperatures during the daytime hours on Sunday are
expected to be fairly warm, so precipitation will likely be rain
or a rain and snow mix for most of the day. Sunday night,
colder air will begin to infiltrate the area in concert with the
heaviest precipitation rates. Therefore, precipitation is
likely to change to all snow, and be heavy at times. Snow will
likely come to an end from west to east by Monday afternoon.
Total snow accumulations are currently forecast to be 4-6
inches northwest of the I-95 corridor and across much of the
Delmarva, and 6-10 inches southeast of the I-95 corridor. It
should be noted that these amounts will likely need refined as
the low track and positioning of other features such as the
inverted surface trough come into better focus
KEY MESSAGE 2...A winter storm Sunday into Monday is expected
to bring multiple hazards to much of the area.
A potent H5 trough centered over the Midwest Saturday will
shift eastward towards the region Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. At the surface, low pressure will begin to
develop over the southeastern US in the exit region of the
trough. From there, the low is expected to deepen as it tracks
northeastward off the Mid- Atlantic Coast through Sunday
afternoon and into Sunday night.
Some discrepancies remain amongst model guidance, with the GFS
maintaining a track close to the coast, and significant snowfall
accumulations across the entire region. The ECM remains farther
offshore, but there has been a northwestward shift over the
past couple of model runs. Other deterministic guidance
generally falls into one of these two camps, but both outcomes
would result in accumulating snow across at least portions of
the area. Both the 12Z GEFS and EC Ensemble suites feature a
large consensus in a low track that will be close enough to the
coast to bring potentially significant impacts. In addition to
the surface cyclone off the coast, an inverted trough is
depicted in most guidance, though there is some variance in its
placement and intensity. However, these features tend to
increase snowfall amounts and rates where they set up.
The current expectation is for light precipitation to begin
overspreading the region from southwest to northeast some time
overnight Saturday night. As the low begins to approach from the
southwest Sunday afternoon, precipitation rates should begin to
increase. Temperatures during the daytime hours on Sunday are
expected to be fairly warm, so precipitation will likely be rain
or a rain and snow mix for most of the day. Sunday night,
colder air will begin to infiltrate the area in concert with the
heaviest precipitation rates. Therefore, precipitation is
likely to change to all snow, and be heavy at times. Snow will
likely come to an end from west to east by Monday afternoon.
Total snow accumulations are currently forecast to be 4-6
inches northwest of the I-95 corridor and across much of the
Delmarva, and 6-10 inches southeast of the I-95 corridor. It
should be noted that these amounts will likely need refined as
the low track and positioning of other features such as the
inverted surface trough come into better focus
NJZ001-007>010-012>027-210800-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western
Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Pennsville, Somerville, Glassboro,
Camden, Moorestown, Flemington, Morristown, Wharton State Forest,
Sandy Hook, Mount Holly, Ocean City, Long Beach Island,
Hammonton, New Brunswick, Trenton, Jackson, Cape May Court House,
Newton, Atlantic City, Millville, Cherry Hill, Washington, and
Freehold
150 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy snow, with total snow accumulations exceeding 6
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, and southern New
Jersey.
* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western
Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Pennsville, Somerville, Glassboro,
Camden, Moorestown, Flemington, Morristown, Wharton State Forest,
Sandy Hook, Mount Holly, Ocean City, Long Beach Island,
Hammonton, New Brunswick, Trenton, Jackson, Cape May Court House,
Newton, Atlantic City, Millville, Cherry Hill, Washington, and
Freehold
150 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy snow, with total snow accumulations exceeding 6
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, and southern New
Jersey.
* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Mt Holly starting with 6 inch plus for general area but up to 10 in their disco for the southern areas. Decent job to alert people without biting on the snowiest solutions and overdoing it.
their snow map though showing only 3-6 inches for many seems odd?
their snow map though showing only 3-6 inches for many seems odd?
As predicted, the NWS put up winter storm watches for everyone in the NWS-Philly and NYC Office Counties. The watches from the Philly office are for 6"+ of snow for the EPA counties surrounding Philly, including the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, all of the DE counties and MD Eastern Shore counties, and for all of the NJ counties, except Union/Essex/Hudson/Passaic/Bergen. These NJ counties are overseen by the NWS-NYC, along with SENY counties, NYC, southern CT and Nassau County and have watches for 6-10" of snow. Suffolk County's watch is for 10-13" of snow.
The watches wlll likely be converted to warnings for those conditions becoming imminent sometime within 24 hours of the start of the event, probably around 2 pm tomorrow, assuming the forecast still warrants warnings. Sometimes watches get converted to advisories for less snow if that's appropriate and the warnings can be for much more snow if needed (the min is 6" for counties along/N of 276/195 and 5" for counties along/S of that line). Maps and forecasts should be updated shortly, because the point-click hourly graphics have been updated - my forecast went from 4" this morning to 9.2" now, which means the NWS map is going to likely be for 6-10" or so for 95.
Also, the 4-6" amounts in the NWS-Philly discussion for NW areas and the 6-10" amounts for 95 to the coast are almost exactly what I was thinking and posted earlier - I did think they might have the coastal counties with 10-13", like NWS-NYC did for Suffolk, but that's tricker to do with NJ's geography, whereas it's easy to do for LI. Same for the NWS-NYC predictions of 6-10" for all of their area except eastern LI. I thought these were good starting point given some model variability still and not going right for the high amounts several models show, as there's plenty of time to adjust upwards tomorrow if needed and I think it hurts credibility when they go too high too early and have to back down, like they did for 1/25.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter storm watch
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Old map from this morning, despite the time stamp - they really confuse people by doing this. New map should be out soon hopefully; the NYC office part of the map all in yellow for NENJ/NYC/LI looks updated.Mt Holly starting with 6 inch plus for general area but up to 10 in their disco for the southern areas. Decent job to alert people without biting on the snowiest solutions and overdoing it.
their snow map though showing only 3-6 inches for many seems odd?
Edit: @bac2therac et al - fyi, the NWS snow maps are only through 7 am Monday, so they're not complete (probably 1-3" short) - I find it annoying when they do that. They won't issue them until at least 7 pm tonight.
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So what does Sunday look like for being on the roads? My weather app makes it look like a non issue until the evening, with a mix early changing to snow in the afternoon, but less then an inch. Mercer county. Wondering if a HS activity needs to end early.
