Well..... there goes your boner.
OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
In the Meteorology Is Hard category, things trended back a bit more snowy at 6Z, especially the Euro, which jumped NW about 200 miles. Can't make this up. So no storm cancel yet, but also still nothing major in the 6Z models.
Specifically, at 6Z we have the GFS showing 1-2" for 95 and 2-4" towards the coast, the Euro-AIFS showing 3-5" for 95 and 5-7" towards the coast, and the Euro-Op showing 1-2" for 95 and 2-4" towards the coast (nearly identical to the GFS). The AIGFS, which was the last model showing 6-12" at 0Z, took a big step back, only showing 2-4" for 95 and 3-5" towards the coast, but Weathernext2 jumped up to 6-10" for 95 and NW and 8-12" towards the coast. The Euro ensemble mean also made a nice bump up in snowfall. The rest of the models don't run out long enough at 6Z.
Specifically, at 6Z we have the GFS showing 1-2" for 95 and 2-4" towards the coast, the Euro-AIFS showing 3-5" for 95 and 5-7" towards the coast, and the Euro-Op showing 1-2" for 95 and 2-4" towards the coast (nearly identical to the GFS). The AIGFS, which was the last model showing 6-12" at 0Z, took a big step back, only showing 2-4" for 95 and 3-5" towards the coast, but Weathernext2 jumped up to 6-10" for 95 and NW and 8-12" towards the coast. The Euro ensemble mean also made a nice bump up in snowfall. The rest of the models don't run out long enough at 6Z.
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one of the best things about the boardwalk. If its sunny and not windy or even if the wind is coming off the bay it can feel very warm up there even if its in the teens. I've only missed a day or two of walking outside this whole winter.
Yeah but you're one bad Mamma Jamma so not the best example.
Being surrounded by water makes it a damp cold that goes right thru ya when windy.
give it a rest. your entire 'contribution' to these boards consists of stupid posts like this.
Makes sense. That'll be a little over three days out so things should be in better focus. As of now, the good news is that it appears to be trending toward a lesser event. Even the cold shot they predict next week has the Tuesday high at 32 which is more than enough to get a good melt on treated surfaces.
The 6Z Euro run may have been the harbinger of things to come, as the 12Z suite is starting off with a bang, with the GFS and CMC both showing a much less progressive/flat evolution (more meriodonal flow, i.e., south to north up the coast instead of out to sea) and much more snow. I'll update this as 12Z continues and the WPC seems to be on board with significant snow, now, as per the graphic below. Interesting times.
- The ICON still didn't have much snow at 12Z, but made major improvements in track and aloft
- The GFS was very much snowier, with 4-6" for 95 (less NW) and 6-10" towards the coast
- The AIGFS stepped back a bit showing a general 1-3".
- The CMC was close to a bomb with 6-10" for 95 (less NW) and 10-15" towards the coast
- The UK moved the low about 200 miles NW giving 3-6" S of 276/195, but very little north of there as it moved too far east
- And to muddy things up even more, the AIFS stepped back a little bit with 2-4" for 95/4-6" for the coast...
- ...and the Euro went back to being largely a miss to the SE. So much for being a harbinger, lol.
- WeatherNext 2 backed off a bit from 6Z, showing 2-4" for 95 and NW and 4-7" towards the coast.
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So we can get an inch or over a foot. Glad you narrowed that down!
Why is anyone putting out amounts right now? Way too early. Seems like Tomer Burg is searching for a longshot scenario that fits his need to talk about a big storm.
So we can get an inch or over a foot. Glad you narrowed that down!
Why is anyone putting out amounts right now? Way too early. Seems like Tomer Burg is searching for a longshot scenario that fits his need to talk about a big storm.
agree I don’t see the point of showing amounts after every run.
way too early for that. Right now is about trends.
According to 6ABC Philadelphia the Euro has this as a miss with most South of Philly and the Jersey Shore. Way too much time to be talking any specifics on a storm 4 days away.
exactly but that he does...clown maps are stupid at this point....Nimbers and the clown crew on americanwx model hugging each run 4-6 days out
There is no way you're getting 4.723 inches. Max will be 4.722 in your area!
euro, ukmet icon are still nothing
gfs ensembles are way less vs the gfs op more of a grazer like the ai euro
the only 2 models giving a moderate storm are the gfs and canadian and even then concentrates most of precip toward coast, in fact the gfs verbatim really struggles to give precip to NW new jersey and nw of 78
gfs ensembles are way less vs the gfs op more of a grazer like the ai euro
the only 2 models giving a moderate storm are the gfs and canadian and even then concentrates most of precip toward coast, in fact the gfs verbatim really struggles to give precip to NW new jersey and nw of 78
You are almost correct. I'd say 0-12" is the reasonable range right now. I see no issue discussing model data - it's a weather thread and people are interested in what the models say and the trends we may or may not see. Nobody is putting out a forecast yet that I know of, given the incredible range and uncertainty.So we can get an inch or over a foot. Glad you narrowed that down!
Why is anyone putting out amounts right now? Way too early. Seems like Tomer Burg is searching for a longshot scenario that fits his need to talk about a big storm.
This has been such a strange winter. Freezing cold many days, much colder than the last several winters and for a much longer period of time. But many days are bright and sunny, not the typical months on end of grey days. I don't get it.
The GFS, CMC and UK all jumped 200+ miles NW (and the UK gives decent snow along/S of 195), which is notable. The AI models all still show a few to several inches of snow for most, but a bit less than at 6Z and the Euro was a big fail, which is important. Overall, this is a significant increase in snow vs. 0Z last night, but not consistent enough to make a forecast on, given several models showing little snow and the ensembles showing a decrease in snow.
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WELL????? How many inches are they forecasting? C'mon, we desperately need to know this information!
By saying 1-12 is a forecast. A terrible forecast but without a doubt people are putting amounts right now.
Seems like we see this same setup all the time. Wasn't the last one just like this? As we get closer to Friday the storm will go out to sea. Always seems to happen.
I was thinking this. Why 5-6 days out is it snowmaggedon and then it disappears. Never the other way around. NJ just doesn’t get much snow.
I have 4 friends that live in his area and are certified snow spotters. They will drive around and keep him honest!
You simply don't understand what that word means. It's not a forecast at all. Period. It's saying what the potential range of outcomes are and it's not even the full range - the full range is more like 0-20". A forecast would be something like 2-4" for 95, 1-2" well NW of 95 and 4-8" towards the coast. That is possible but I wouldn't be willing to put that out as a forecast and nobody else should either. That's why the NWS won't put out a forecast for the whole storm until Friday afternoon as they only forecast 72 hours out and the storm probably wouldn't be done until noon on Monday. Some folks might put out a forecast before then, but that's a recipe for being wrong.
Why would you say that? 12/14, 12/26 and 1/25 were nowhere close to going out to sea and became decent hits and even 2/15, which looked like it would be out to sea, came back over the final 36 hours and delivered 1-3". Yes, the last one on 2/1 missed completely out to sea, but it also never really had much of a chance for being a storm and never should have had a thread for it. Also, 1/17 and 1/18 did not go out to sea (but they were more clippers where out to sea isn't much of a risk). And we don't know yet whether this one is going out to sea, although it's very possible.
No I understand. But not many do. People all day coming in and talking about the foot of snow we are getting. What is even the point of posting any measurement. Just to get people interested? Nonsense. You certainly don't understand that posting measurements 4 days out is silly.
And to have any faith with the NWS in Mount Holly is also silly. They couldn't get where and how much rain we were going this morning. The actual amount was zero.
The NAM which is out of its range at this point has a very flat wave developing which wont be conducive to a storm
posting the NAM results at this range is just as silly as posting amounts at this range.
im glad you acknowledge its out of its range.
That's all you needed to say. It's useless right now. The ICON was improved at 18Z and the GFS is close to a bomb (6-9" for 95 and 9-15" towards the coast). But until we see the Euro on board there will be doubts about significant snow.
I didnt give nam qpf..just indicating where it stands
Odd post why start a thread then
The ensembles have not been on board with this storm
You can see even on that ridiculous 18z gfs that it wants to go east southeast
Most of NJ would collectively sh-- itself if it woke up to a surprise 2-in snowfall, let alone a real storm. Be happy it works that way and not the reverse
Would be hilarious reading the ensuing breakdown here, tho.