OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
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When is this supposed to happen? I’m seeing 41 degrees on Monday and 59 on Wednesday on Accuweather. I saw maybe rain or a dusting on Sunday late night possibly but 3-7”. Seems like that’s coming out of nowhere
Time for a thread for a potential snowfall for many, starting Sunday evening and going through about sunrise on Monday. This is probably my last weather post before 6 pm tomorrow as I have an all-day disc golf tourney in the leftover snow in Ft. Washington (NW Philly burbs), but the potential for snowfall for many, starting Sunday evening and going through about sunrise on Monday keeps increasing.
The chance of at least a minor (1-2") snowfall is now pretty high with several models (NAM, NAM3km, UK, Euro now showing a general 1-2+" event while the AIGFS, ICON and Weathernext show a 2-4" type event for most N of 276/195 (or even Philly to Toms River and N) up to 78 or 80, so the chance of a moderate (2-4") snowfall is now decent. And even a significant (4-8") storm is no longer a pipe dream, with the GFS showing 6-12" area-wide (the higher amounts south of 276/195 actually) and the AIFS showing a 3-6" event area-wide. Only the Canadian models aren't showing any snow, with precip all south of Philly to AC as rain.
And Lee Goldberg weighed in, changing his forecast from 11:00 to 11:20 pm, probably because he saw the GFS which came out around 10:45 pm, lol. He's now calling for 1-2" for much of the area, as per the map below and noted that this may have to be increased further if ongoing trends continue. Note that most of the models showing snow have marginal temps (maybe 32-34F) for 95 towards the coast, so there may be some initial melting, but snow at night will accumulate more easily especially if there are at least moderate rates and in addition, with marginal temps there will be a rain/snow line likely somewhere south of 276/195 (maybe Philly to Toms River?), which means if the storm moves further north/closer to the coast rain could keep accumulations down into CNJ.
This is a very finicky, complex setup with so many moving parts, making uncertainty very high and meaning a much wider range of solutions are on the table inside of 48 hours from the event than normal, as this truly could be anything from a whiff to a minor event (1-2") to a moderate event (2-4") to even a significant snowstorm (4-8"). Even the curmudgeonly Tomer Burg (one of the best young mets out there) is saying everything is on the table (link below): "Until models get a better handle on this feature gradually over the next 1-2 days, I would be wary of outright dismissing a major (6”+) snowstorm potential, and especially wary of assuming no snow is a guarantee." Stay tuned.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62557-february-2026-obs-discussion/page/72/
Yep really shows that even in 2026 what absolute trash the models are. Flopping like fish and none really in full agreement...30 hours before a storm and Mt Holly will have to throw darts to make a forecast
12z models continue to be all over the map from a whiff to 4 inches or so
Models a complete embarrassment
Models a complete embarrassment
48 and beautiful right now
I gotta be honest, I really don't have a problem with trashy models. Just sayin'.
Gfs has cut way back from its silly runs
Mt Holly has a general inch on its map across of NJ. 1-2 possibility in their disco
This will occur at night but may have difficulty sticking to paved especially treated surfaces initially and with a holiday and warming temps Monday morning really shouldnt be a big deal
Mt Holly has a general inch on its map across of NJ. 1-2 possibility in their disco
This will occur at night but may have difficulty sticking to paved especially treated surfaces initially and with a holiday and warming temps Monday morning really shouldnt be a big deal
I think they are just covering their bases with the two-inch-high-end estimate. Treated surfaces and temps being high enough on a holiday Monday, this isn’t a huge deal. And for the record since Numbers invoked the great Lee Goldberg’s name: he never dismissed the possibility of snow, just the possibility of a major snowstorm. That appears to be playing out.
Everybody said, make a thread, so I made a thread and now y'all are only posting in this thread, lol. Just got back, got caught up and posted an update. Looking like a 1-3" event for most with a low chance for a bit more (but less so now) and a low chance for <1". Considering that this threat was essentially dead 2 days ago, even just getting a couple of inches would be a major score for snow lovers.
https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/...onday-am-very-high-uncertainty-still.8683904/
https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/...onday-am-very-high-uncertainty-still.8683904/
The models are better than they've ever been, especially with the added AI models - you just have very unrealistic expectations. John Homenuk/earthlight said it very well earlier today to someone on the boards complaining about the models:
"That is not how this works with hyper sensitive/mesoscale driven events. There is no trend to a consensus, what you are seeing is a level of randomness and uncertainty that is a result of the intricacies of the setup. The Euro ticked north, the GFS south, NAM north/snowier, RGEM not having it, it’s all noise. Each physical model is handling the very intricate setup differently every time it’s being run. Hopefully by tonight we see some better consensus but until then this is a really difficult forecast. Even the AIFS has been jumpy which is exceedingly rare at this range."
Tomorrow is looking to be very nice as well. Upper 40s!
Stop defending the models. They were horrible 5 days out.. went nutso yesterday and now in process of backing up
The wishcasting in this thread is biblical.
Still can't believe the thread title "up to 1" snow" lol.
Nothing to slushy 2 inches covers the low and high end. Im going with a very slushy inch and Mt Hollys snow map is about an inch for most
Big flakes melting into the abyss oncontact
Such a shame
Such a shame
You haven't been paying attention. Enjoy this coming week, as models keep shifting colder after about 2/20 with multiple chances of snow after that, including signals for a significant winter storm sometime in the 2/22-23 timeframe (which is not way out in fantasy land; tonight's UK, GFS and Euro-AIFS show significant snowstorms around then, with the GFS being a bomb) and there are threats beyond that. It's always possible they don't materialize, but it's kind of foolish to declare winter dead with another 4-6 weeks of winter ahead.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62557-february-2026-obs-discussion/page/76/
It's extremely rare to see this much consensus (5 of 7 models with significant to major snow for some/most of us) - often one might see 2-3 at this range) on a significant to major winter storm 6 days out, but that's what we're seeing with most models showing that last night and at 12Z today. Today's 12Z models showed the following for our area. At this point, far from a guarantee of snow or even a storm, but absolutely worth monitoring.
- GFS: 6-12" (was 12-24" last night)
- ICON: 12-24"
- UK: 8-14"
- Euro-AIFS: 4-8" (and it has shown this amount plus or minus a bit for 7 straight runs, which is unheard of this far out)
- CMC: nada, but shows 3-6" north of 84 on 2/21-22 (timing difference)
- Euro: nada, but it has a large storm several hundred miles to our south
- AIGFS: a large winter storm with rain/mix/snow from SE to NW
- Weathernext 2 (Google AI model): 8-12"
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Lol you do this all the time
Its rare we see consensus 6 days out...just go back to a couple of weeks ago
4 not 5 of those 7 models show snow and the ICON is embarrassing for you lump in with others..its 3 out if 6..and those amounts have been cut verbatim since yesterday
That you even are throwing verbatim amounts out is strange since the models will change a dozen times
Why hype an event except to say there is potential but beyond that we really have no idea
Its rare we see consensus 6 days out...just go back to a couple of weeks ago
4 not 5 of those 7 models show snow and the ICON is embarrassing for you lump in with others..its 3 out if 6..and those amounts have been cut verbatim since yesterday
That you even are throwing verbatim amounts out is strange since the models will change a dozen times
Why hype an event except to say there is potential but beyond that we really have no idea
Hahaha now the 18z ICON whiffs to the storm way to the south giving us nothing and 18z GFS 3-6 storm continuing to slice from its one wacky run
And the 1/25 storm which showed pretty good consensus 5-6 days out delivered, so what's your point? The 2/1 event never had anywhere near consensus, which is part of why I didn't start a thread on it and said you shouldn't have.
Also, there was nothing inaccurate in what I posted and it's 5 of 7 - take the ICON out and it's 4 of 6, which is still unusually high. And the verbatim amounts are simply illustrative, not a forecast in any way. This is how people talk about medium range threats. If I wanted to hype it, don't you think I could say way more than what I said? Just stating facts here and noting that a miss is still very possible.
And the AIFS shows a monster - so what? We're still in the early stages here and models will move around a lot for at least a couple more day.
Now this is fascinating and something I've never seen from a model, as far as I can recall. We've had 8 straight runs of the Euro-AIFS model, showing a significant to major+ snowstorm 6+ days out (over the last 42 hours). I kind of feel like we might be watching the meteorological equivalent of Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak, where we're maybe about 18 games into the streak, lol. I'll actually be amazed if it keeps this streak up. Still doesn't guarantee anything, but it's a stronger signal than we usually have for snow.
As an aside this AI model from the Euro folks has quickly become the best model this year in verification scores and has done especially well for patterns several days out. It was the first model 2-3 days out to show measurable snow for our area for yesterday's storm and then the rest of the models followed. It has done well on other storms too, but is also not perfect by any stretch and has not done well in mixed precip setups near the event (like 1/25), because it doesn't have actual physics and physical chemistry equations built in that try to predict such things.
As an aside this AI model from the Euro folks has quickly become the best model this year in verification scores and has done especially well for patterns several days out. It was the first model 2-3 days out to show measurable snow for our area for yesterday's storm and then the rest of the models followed. It has done well on other storms too, but is also not perfect by any stretch and has not done well in mixed precip setups near the event (like 1/25), because it doesn't have actual physics and physical chemistry equations built in that try to predict such things.
The models were all wrong 5 days out from last nights non event of grass coating
BAC................why the Fu&**KKKK don't you just put RU numbers on ignore?
If you posted here more than what you think you would put us all to sleep/. Your analysis of these storms are so long winded I bet all the pages you keep on storms are more than the Epstein files.
The UK, GFS, and CMC all showed big snowstorm hits last night at 0Z, while the AIFS backed off a bit and showed a moderate snowfall and the Euro continued to show no storm at all for us and the AIGFS showed a big storm with mixed precip for 95/coast and snow inland; the ICON showed a miss.
At 6Z, the AIFS went back to showing a major snowstorm and the AIGFS had more snow/less rain, while the GFS showed a pretty big snowstorm, but the biggest news was the Euro finally showing decent snowfall (several inches) for the first time in days and the Euro ensemble showing a nice bump-up in snowfall indicating that the Op move wasn't an outlier. The major ensemble model means all continue to show a good signal for at least moderate to significant snowfall (and Weathernext 2 is similar).
Bottom line is there is still a long way to go, as the storm start (if we get one) would likely be Sunday morning after sunrise, which is about 5 days out. At this point, a moderate to significant snowstorm (with potential for more) is looking like at least a ~50% chance, but a miss to the east is probably still a ~40% possibility (including scenarios where there is some snow at the coast) and a mostly rain event for 95/coast is maybe a 10% probability (rain for all is a very low probability). These are guesses mostly based on the ensemble runs showing probabilities like this and reading what several well-respected mets are saying (I don't do this stuff on my own). IMO, we're not ready for a thread yet, as the miss probability is still too high - if we're still seeing most Op models showing snow in the runs today tonight and tomorrow morning, then maybe a thread tomorrow morning.
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If whatever dropped a coating of hail and had people posting on social media “what were all of those explosions last night” (thunder) in North County San Diego makes it your way, good luck.
Been out all day playing disc golf and just got back and did a quick check of the models and the GFS, UK, CMC, AIFS, AIGFS, Weathernext2, and ICON all showed a major (8-14") to even historic (14"+) snowstorm for pretty much the entire Philly-NJ-NYC area (and down to DC and up to Boston in most models). However, the Euro shows maybe an inch or so as there is no phasing of the two systems, which the others mostly have.
Historically, the Euro has been the best model (the Euro-AIFS is now, but the Euro is 2nd still), so that is a red flag, but confidence in at least a significant (4-8") snowstorm is growing, although we're still about 5 days from the start of the storm vs. the 12Z model start time (7 am EST and precip as modeled starts around 7 am Sunday i most models +/- 6 hours), so a complete miss is still a decent possibility as the setup, like most NE US snowstorms, is very fragile and sensitive and could still fall apart. There's a thread on this now on AmericanWx...
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62604-winter-storm-threat-feb-22-24th/page/8/
Historically, the Euro has been the best model (the Euro-AIFS is now, but the Euro is 2nd still), so that is a red flag, but confidence in at least a significant (4-8") snowstorm is growing, although we're still about 5 days from the start of the storm vs. the 12Z model start time (7 am EST and precip as modeled starts around 7 am Sunday i most models +/- 6 hours), so a complete miss is still a decent possibility as the setup, like most NE US snowstorms, is very fragile and sensitive and could still fall apart. There's a thread on this now on AmericanWx...
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62604-winter-storm-threat-feb-22-24th/page/8/
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