Ok folks...its just about time. Not a full update and not sure if its worth doing full capsules of every school given how traffic has plummeted dramatically here. Here is just my idea on how things stand right now. It looks like its not a crowded bubble at all. I am noticing that there are alot more mediocre 500 type SEC/Big 12 schools than in most years. Although I will say last year through me for a loop as the selection committee did reward alot of bulky loss schools such as Texas while gifting a schoo bereft of quality wins a tourney bid that being UNC so its become more of a crapshoot.
68 schools selected, 31 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 37 at larges
Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these schools would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.
So now getting to the at larges. ....37 at large bids available. Going to group them by catagory.
MORTAL LOCKS (would take act of God to miss)
LOOKING LIKELY (well above the bubble having built strong profiles and only need to avoid implosion down the stretch)
That makes 21 of 37 at large bids accounted for.
Here are my projected #1 seeds: MICHIGAN, DUKE, ARIZONA, CONNECTICUT. MICHIGAN/DUKE have gained some seperation from the rest of the field. They meet this weekend so the winner there will become the overall #1 seed and all but lock up a #1 seed. ARIZONA has dropped back to back Big 12 games, their first 2 losses of the season. No longer in first in the Big 12, they have not lost their #1 seed for now and a big matchup at Houston looms this weekend. CONNECTICUT one seed is the most tenuous because of weaker overall metrics and overall weakness of the Big East. Plus HOUSTON now making a major push and with a win over Iowa State tonight could push them past the Huskies for that last #1. Yet the Coulgars with games vs Arizona and at Kansas to follow may not be able to hold that 1. At the moment there would not appear to be anyone else that pull into the fight for a one.
33 schools fighting for 16 remaining bids. Note that SAINT LOUIS/UTAH STATE have strong at large profiles and excellent chances for at large bids if they do not win their conference AQ. MIAMI (OHIO) although not as strong of a profile may be able to receive an at large with a loss or two.
BUBBLICIOUS (in order from safest to last in)
WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE
Multiple Bid League
SEC: 11
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 8
Big East: 3
WCC: 3
68 schools selected, 31 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 37 at larges
Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these schools would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.
- SEC: FLORIDA
- BIG 12: HOUSTON
- BIG 10: MICHIGAN
- BIG EAST: CONNECTICUT
- ACC: DUKE
- MWC: UTAH STATE
- A10: SAINT LOUIS
- CUSA: LIBERTY
- WCC: GONZAGA
- MVC: BELMONT
- AAC: SOUTH FLORIDA
- BIG WEST: UC IRVINE
- SOUTHERN: EAST TENNESSEE STATE
- IVY: YALE
- WAC: CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
- CAA: UNC WILMINGTON
- BIG SOUTH: HIGH POINT
- SUMMIT: NORTH DAKOTA STATE
- HORIZON: WRIGHT STATE
- SUN BELT: SOUTH ALABAMA
- SOUTHLAND: STEPHEN F AUSTIN
- BIG SKY: PORTLAND STATE
- MAC: MIAMI (OHIO)
- A SUN: AUSTIN PEAY
- A EAST: NJIT
- MAAC: MERRIMACK
- PATRIOT: NAVY
- OH VALLEY: TENNESSEE MARTIN
- MEAC: MORGAN STATE
- NEC: LONG ISLAND
- SWAC: BETHUNE COOKMAN
So now getting to the at larges. ....37 at large bids available. Going to group them by catagory.
MORTAL LOCKS (would take act of God to miss)
- ARIZONA
- PURDUE
- ILLINOIS
- IOWA STATE
- KANSAS
- NEBRASKA
- MICHIGAN STATE
- VANDERBILT
- TEXAS TECH
- ALABAMA
- ARKANSAS
- VIRGINIA
- TENNESSEE
- LOUISVILLE
- SAINT JOHN'S
- NORTH CAROLINA
- BYU
- KENTUCKY
LOOKING LIKELY (well above the bubble having built strong profiles and only need to avoid implosion down the stretch)
- CLEMSON
- VILLANOVA
- WISCONSIN
That makes 21 of 37 at large bids accounted for.
Here are my projected #1 seeds: MICHIGAN, DUKE, ARIZONA, CONNECTICUT. MICHIGAN/DUKE have gained some seperation from the rest of the field. They meet this weekend so the winner there will become the overall #1 seed and all but lock up a #1 seed. ARIZONA has dropped back to back Big 12 games, their first 2 losses of the season. No longer in first in the Big 12, they have not lost their #1 seed for now and a big matchup at Houston looms this weekend. CONNECTICUT one seed is the most tenuous because of weaker overall metrics and overall weakness of the Big East. Plus HOUSTON now making a major push and with a win over Iowa State tonight could push them past the Huskies for that last #1. Yet the Coulgars with games vs Arizona and at Kansas to follow may not be able to hold that 1. At the moment there would not appear to be anyone else that pull into the fight for a one.
33 schools fighting for 16 remaining bids. Note that SAINT LOUIS/UTAH STATE have strong at large profiles and excellent chances for at large bids if they do not win their conference AQ. MIAMI (OHIO) although not as strong of a profile may be able to receive an at large with a loss or two.
BUBBLICIOUS (in order from safest to last in)
- AUBURN
- NORTH CAROLINA STATE
- IOWA
- MIAMI FLA
- TEXAS
- INDIANA
- SAINT MARY'S
- USC
- CENTRAL FLORIDA
- SMU
- TEXAS A&M
- SANTA CLARA
- UCLA
- MISSOURI
- TCU
- GEORGIA
WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- NEW MEXICO
- SETON HALL
- OHIO STATE
- CALIFORNIA
- STANFORD
- VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
- VIRGINIA TECH
- OKLAHOMA STATE
- WEST VIRGINIA
- BOISE STATE
- NEVADA
- TULSA
- GRAND CANYON
- SYRACUSE
- GEORGE MASON
- MC NEESE STATE
Multiple Bid League
SEC: 11
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 8
ACC: 8
Big East: 3
WCC: 3
