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OT: Stock and Investment Thread

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gmay8

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2005
2,617
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RIVN up 31% today.... pretty awesome. My plan of buying a bunch 2 years ago with the rollout of the R2 in early 2026 appears to be paying off. Been a bumpy ride to get here....

Now the always tough question, do I sell or do I hold?
 
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R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,902
3,499
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gmay8 said:
RIVN up 31% today.... pretty awesome. My plan of buying a bunch 2 years ago with the rollout of the R2 in early 2026 appears to be paying off. Been a bumpy ride to get here....

Now the always tough question, do I sell or do I hold?
Click to expand...
I can’t wrap my head around RIVN and would be inclined to sell…is the story that most competitors are now shifting production away from EV + Tesla is floundering so that is good RIVN? On the other hand, the reason for the shift/floundering is because EVs have fallen out of favor, charging infrastructure stalling out, getting undercut by the Chinese, and policies of current administration. Does the R2 alleviate all these negative catalysts?
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,766
19,771
113
gmay8 said:
Funny you comment on AMZN today, I just bought at $200 even. I own a bunch already, but saw it drop from a high of $250 earlier this year, so figured grabbing some at $200 made sense
Click to expand...
I f'ing missed RIVN again! LOL.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,766
19,771
113
gmay8 said:
RIVN up 31% today.... pretty awesome. My plan of buying a bunch 2 years ago with the rollout of the R2 in early 2026 appears to be paying off. Been a bumpy ride to get here....

Now the always tough question, do I sell or do I hold?
Click to expand...
Remember, it doesn't need to be all or nothing. You can sell enough to cover your original investment and then let the rest ride (essentially for free).
 
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B

Bueller

Junior
Nov 28, 2025
248
250
63
RUAldo said:
I’ve heard people are buying up computers now because of coming price hikes due to chips. Sort of like EVs right before gov’t handout expired.
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Its also because of RAM prices going to the moon and Microsoft Windows 11 freaking users out (many don't want more Windows after W10 reached end of update service ). Old hardware/PCs are hot now. MS might buy Discord and Discord is moving to Hoover-up personal data.



 
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R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
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gmay8 said:
RIVN up 31% today.... pretty awesome. My plan of buying a bunch 2 years ago with the rollout of the R2 in early 2026 appears to be paying off. Been a bumpy ride to get here....

Now the always tough question, do I sell or do I hold?
Click to expand...
I sold calls. $20, sometime in March.

Trend since April 2024 is upward but plenty of volatility. $22.50 ish is the 52 week high, and the high since that 2024 bottom.

Also have to watch out for what looks like a head and shoulders formation right here at this price.

I might buy puts as well.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
9,219
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RUAldo said:
I can’t wrap my head around RIVN and would be inclined to sell…is the story that most competitors are now shifting production away from EV + Tesla is floundering so that is good RIVN? On the other hand, the reason for the shift/floundering is because EVs have fallen out of favor, charging infrastructure stalling out, getting undercut by the Chinese, and policies of current administration. Does the R2 alleviate all these negative catalysts?
Click to expand...
Other tailwinds:

R2 rollout.

Autonomous.

VW backing.
 
T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,766
19,771
113
RU05 said:
And the market has held up in spite of that.

Plenty of debate as to whether this is bullish or not in the longer term.
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+1
Super bullish for the longer term. Also, pretty amazing to see the S&P flat when the biggest 7 stocks are down so much. Maybe leaps for MSFT and AMZN?
 
L

Letitrip

All-Conference
Sep 4, 2007
2,386
4,225
66
RUAldo said:
I can’t wrap my head around RIVN and would be inclined to sell…is the story that most competitors are now shifting production away from EV + Tesla is floundering so that is good RIVN? On the other hand, the reason for the shift/floundering is because EVs have fallen out of favor, charging infrastructure stalling out, getting undercut by the Chinese, and policies of current administration. Does the R2 alleviate all these negative catalysts?
Click to expand...
TSLA floundering? DBAE
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,902
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T2Kplus20 said:
Then explain the data. I'm open to other reasons.
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I think the point was that Chamath is one of the shadiest dudes on Wall Street. Made a ton of money off a trail of empty bag holders. Buffett and the good old boys had insiders everywhere. Although I would argue that democratizing investing info across the internet likely a huge factor in addition to regulation.
 
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RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,902
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Sticking with my anything but software theme - bought MCW (Mister Car Wash) yesterday. This morning it was announced they are being taken private. Only 17% gain and unfortunately not a huge position but I’ll take it.

FUN looks really interesting at these levels it’s taken such a beating; could get some momentum heading into Six Flags parks season plus market rotation.

LUCK is up 11% in a week. After seeing Sphere crush earnings these entertainment properties could be a good place to look for gains.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
9,219
113
Been watching AVAV for a couple months as it dove from $390 to $230m before bouncing to $260 after JPM set a $325 price target.

Bought it today.

Military grade autonomous drones. Sub 10x price to revs. With nice growth expected.
 
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R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
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PANW which has struggled pretty mightily, was down a bunch again after earnings last night.
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
9,219
113
CLF, if it can hold here at $10 looks interesting.

MS with a$16.80 price target, based in large part on a deal with POSCO (South Korean steel company) going through which should help alleviate CLF's dept.
 
R

rigi19040

Senior
Aug 1, 2024
1,120
673
113
T2Kplus20 said:
Big wow if true (watch the clip):

Click to expand...



Is that even news?

Isn't it step past insider info when an insider is given options that GUARANTEE a profit?

It would be nice if the rest of us got options to buy a $20 stock for $5. #BAC

Options should be prohibited by insider trading or we should all get the same opportunity.
 
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N

Navion N8865H

Junior
Oct 27, 2021
128
289
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Anyone have thoughts on GPC? Near lows and they are going to separate the Industrial & Auto segments. Wasted money or worth a turnaround?
 
R

RUAldo

All-Conference
Sep 11, 2008
4,902
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Navion N8865H said:
Anyone have thoughts on GPC? Near lows and they are going to separate the Industrial & Auto segments. Wasted money or worth a turnaround?
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If GPC is still just a parts distributor I’d probably pass. Tariffs, margin erosion, dependence on auto sector, robust competition, etc. = too much for me to digest.

Started a new position in MTN today. Bought more FUN.
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,766
19,771
113
Postman_1 said:
Rough start to the year for the mag 7

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FYI - Big changes to Tom Lee's GRNY. Still waiting for the video and press release, but they added a bunch of energy and materials names. Also swapped a few industrial stocks. Got rid of the following:

LAM - surprising, but it had a huge run
EMR
SPGI
PANW - software (even though cybersecurity should be fine in the long-run)
CRWD - same as ^^^
EXPE
AXON - tariffs have been killing this stock
SOFI

I'm surprised that MSTR is still in this quarter, but I guess you can't dump the largest DAT when you run the second largest DAT! LOL. Overall, love these updates. Happy to add to my position.

GRNY Holdings - GRNY GRNJ GRNI | Fundstrat Granny Shots ETFs

grannyshots.com grannyshots.com
 
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T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman
May 1, 2007
31,766
19,771
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Time to corner the grains market before the Dukes do! :)

Grains should be turning up sharply this year if cycles continue to work as they have historically

My mention of the Agricultural stocks’ outperformance lately warranted some study of the grains cycles, as Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans all made intermediate-term lows back in 2020.

While this composite might not always continue to work going forward, there seems to be a prevalent six-year cycle in grains prices that should turn up sharply this year and aligns with what my cycle composite shows is likely for Soybeans prices between now and Q4 of 2026.

This cycle composite on weekly Soybeans going back since 2003 mirrors what Corn and Wheat are also showing to be possible for this year, and I anticipate that all three of these should begin turning higher sooner than later.

As mentioned last week, the intermediate-term trends have not turned up sufficiently yet to be able to make a bullish technical call for a rally. Yet, Soybeans appear stronger than either Corn or Wheat and look close to beginning its move higher.

Not many ETFs are liquid enough to make suggestions on ways to follow grain prices without trading commodity futures, but Teucrium has several that might be worthy of consideration. WEAT +1.78%, CORN -0.06%, and SOYB -0.13%are all grain-related ETFs that correspond to the prices of Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans, respectively. Additionally, DBA +0.51%is Invesco’s DB Agriculture Fund, which also looks close to turning higher following the last month of consolidation.

Overall, I am bullish for a grain rally in 2026 and expect strength throughout much of 2026 in grains prices.

Soybean Cycle Composite


Source: Foundation for the Study of Cycles
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
9,219
113
Navion N8865H said:
Anyone have thoughts on GPC? Near lows and they are going to separate the Industrial & Auto segments. Wasted money or worth a turnaround?
Click to expand...
Not familiar, but a quick look says not expensive, with some decent growth forcasted. 3.5% div.

Just took a dump on earnings, as it missed on eps as well as eps guidance, back down to the low end of a 5 year range it's been stuck in.

Elliot is in there as an activist investor.

If you like to bottom fish, I'd say this looks pretty good, just don't let it break too much lower. Stop at $110 maybe?
 
R

RU05

All-American
Jun 25, 2015
14,806
9,219
113
Selling those RIVN calls was a good idea.

Should have bought some puts though.
 
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