KenPom projected results for final 8 games
- Thread starter akaukswoosh
- Start date
the only guaranteed loss to me is at florida.
I actually think we are much more likely to go 5-3 than 3-5. I could see anything from 3-5 to 6-2 though. Our resume of Quad 1 wins will get us a good sees by tourney time especially if we pick up 3-4 more. Going to be very similar to last years record and a similar resume more likely than not.
I think 4-4 and ending up 20-11 is about right. Win 1 SEC game and 21-12 with a 6 or 7 seed headed into the NCAA.
Noledynasty2490
The Battles's End Collective Member
The Battle's End enables FSU athletes to maximize the value of their NIL. Click Here to Sign Up
IF this team has truly found their identity, and IF they continue to play with the effort and intensity, then yes it’s within the realm of possibility
That being said, I’m feeling 5-3. No analytics, just a gut feeling. Obviously can be and most likely will be wrong
Dang that is one freaking tough schedule to end the year. Show me a tougher one........
No, actually at 11 losses.
It is too simplistic to simply count the # of games below 50%. Why? There is a HUGE difference in being predicted to win at 99% (eg. playing SW Idaho St) vs at 53% (vs UT). So to get a better estimate, you want to add the probabilities up, which gives us the estimated number of wins for those 8 games, and that comes out to 3.67 which means 4.33 losses. Of course you can't have partial wins & losses, so we round that off to going 4-4, which would be a record of 20-11.
Lastly, I am not defending double digit losses, or certainly the magnitude of most of our losses so far. But when you have the toughest schedule in the country you should have more losses than if you have a easier schedule.
We aren't getting swept by Florida and Vandy. Florida may sweep us, it's possible..but I expect us to come out very vengeful vs. Vandy after being blown out at their place. I don't see UK losing the final three games of the season (two of which are at home) either.
The floor could actually be 2-6
People really feeling their oats right now but I have to warn everyone look at that schedule. 6 quad 1 games and 2 quad 2 games left.
Kentucky might only be favored to win 2 or 3 more games.
If Kentucky played great and won a couple really tough games they still might only go 4-4.
Their is a very real chance they could go something like 2-6 the rest of the way.
I sure hope Kentucky can keep it up but they have the most brutal of schedules.
Florida twice, Vanderbilt who you already lost by 25 to, Tennessee looking for revenge, 1st place Texas A&M, At Auburn, At South Carolina a place even the best of Kentucky teams lost at (2010 and 2014 to name a couple)
Brutal
I'm thinking 21-10 with wins over Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. It would also not surprise me if we split with Florida and possibly win at Auburn.
Take care of business at home and get 2 wins on the road. I’m going 6-2!
+6.5, same for the Tennessee game.
Don't care what the lines say, if we bring our A game, we can beat anybody. That's why they play the games.
You don’t understand statistics. Kenpom’s own site shows a projection of 11 losses. Think of it this way: if the number 1 team played the number 2 team 50 times on a neutral court, the number 1 team would be the projected winner of every game with a probability of 51% to 49%, but do you think anyone would expect the number 1 team to go 50-0 in those games?
All I have to say is buckle your seat belts, buy your antacids and take your heart pills. The rest of this season is probably going to be edge of our seat games.
I think we sweep Tennessee, beat Georgia & S.Carolina plus beat Florida & Vandy in Rupp. If we beat Auburn on the road that could have us at 13-3 which could win the SEC.
Yep. With this team it can go any direction. So instead of guessing I'll just say, "We'll see". We will all know the final answer in 1 month & 1 day.
As a Florida fan, UK has looked like they have figured something out. Winning so many close games is a tough thing to do. I’d be surprised if UK finished the season 3-5. I’d guess 5-3 at worst, and I typically assume a split series between UF and UK no matter how good either team is playing. These two teams have been battling for SEC supremacy for 20 years and the games are usually exciting.