Does this man have two twitter accounts or something? I keep seeing his name brought up and when I go to his Twitter page he has no recent posts besides one pinned from this most recent storm.
OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
- Thread starter RU848789
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Correct- I cut off the last part by mistake. I have edited my original post to show his full assessment.
So freaking great. I'm screwed either way. I'm either going to have to stay here a few extra days to miss the storm down the coast and drive down into crap early next week, or drive down thru it (NOT!), or go down early and let Armageddon happen here and worry about the home. (Annual relocation to Murrell's Inlet, SC for February check-in is Sunday.) This settles it. From now on I'm flipping my winter migration to Feb-Fla/March-SC.
You're killing me. Supposed to check in Murrell's Inlet Sunday for the month. Then we go to Panama City Beach for March. That's insane. (ps, drove back thru New Bern a few years ago to check it out. Lovely. )
I like Dan's thinking on this. I might go with slightly different numbers: 25% direct hit (just because of historic trending tendencies), 50% coastal hugger, and 25% complete whiff.
Today's 12Z model summary: None show a direct hit, but CMC/GFS show a few inches for 95 and 4+" for the coast (and even 8" in spots), while the Euro, UK and ICON show a complete whiff well offshore and the Euro-AIFS shows an inch or two for the coast and that's it. Wide range of outcomes which is not surprising almost 5 days out for an exquisitely volatile setup meaning it's more uncertain than most setups. Let's keep tracking.
18Z models put the storm back in play. Euro made a huge jump NW and now has a bit of snow for the coast, just like the Euro-AIFS with big snows 50 miles offshore and the Euro ensembles also made a nice jump NW and show a few inches for 95 and several inches for the coast, as does the AIGFS. The GFS shows an inch or two for 95 and 6" towards the coast, while the GFS ensembles show a bit more than that.
Basically, we now have no major 18Z models (other than the ICON) showing a whiff, with some showing just a bit for the coast and nada inland with others showing significant snow for the coast and minor to moderate snowfall inland. But none of these is a direct hit, which would be a foot plus, which every model shows offshore 25-75 miles, so the storm will be a big one if it moves a decent amount further NW. Long way to go still and these very volatile setups are very difficult to get right this far out, so everything from a bomb to a whiff is still on the table.
One more comment: most of the models are showing this as being a 960-something mbar pressure storm, which is as strong as a Cat 2 hurricane. Nor'easters don't have the same high winds at similar pressures as hurricanes, because they're much larger storms (and cold core, not warm core), but that's a pretty strong nor'easter and there is a very high probability of 50+ mph gusts at the coast and of significant coastal flooding and beach erosion impacts even if the snow is a whiff. And if the storm ends up being a direct hit (still a low probability, but not zero), it would likely be a 12"+ blizzard.
Not looking good here for central and eastern NC.... Heavy snow and wind seem very likely. Model variations differ in snowfall totals, but not by much. Correct? Local network TV forecasters (e.g. WRAL) here are not offering confident outlooks after missing on the last event. Your thoughts Msr. #s?
yeah I think we've already decided to push our trip down until next week (Tues) vs. Sat.
Last night's 0Z models and this mornings 6Z models are a mix of whiffs and coastal scrapers which put down an inch or two for 95 and several inches for the coast, with the Euro at 6Z being the snowiest and the GFS having a bit of snow and the CMC, UK, AIFS and ICON being whiffs (with significant snow just offshore). However, the ensemble means for the Euro, GFS and CMC are all showing a couple of inches for 95 and several inches for the coast, meaning that the operational runs for the GFS and CMC are somewhat outliers to the easy (the Euro Op is consistent with the ensemble mean) and ensemble means are still very relevant 4+ days out.
At this point, the chance of a big blizzard hit for all has gone down (to maybe 5-10%) and the chances of a coastal scraper and a whiff are pretty similar (~40-50% each). Still too far out to rule out a significant storm for all, as this kind of setup is very volatile and capable of significant changes still, as we've seen for these kinds of Miller A's before (like the 12/26/10 blizzard, which looked dead until 36 hours before the storm), but that's not the way to bet now. Many mets are talking about the evolution of the TPV (tropospheric polar vortex) lobe in eastern Canada being uncertain (this could drive the system to come up the coast more) and that that won't be well known until at least tomorrow so until then we monitor this one; see Tomer Burg's discussion of this below and also see the latest NWS discussion below.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
456 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026
KEY MESSAGE 2...A rapidly deepening storm will develop off the
east coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast
details remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of
the area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong
winds, and coastal flooding.
Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring
beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly
deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east
Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent
upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long
wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic
zone along the coast.
In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this still hinges on
the exact track the storm takes which remains uncertain at this
time. The latest GFS trended west a little. However, the latest
GEM trended east, like the latest EC. It is worth noting that
there continues to be spread in the GFS ensemble members (the
GEFS) with the ensemble mean a bit farther east than the
deterministic . So this all said, it boils down to whether the
storm tracks farther northward along the coast before turning
east (bringing the area greater impacts) vs. being quicker to
turn east meaning the track would stay farther away bringing
more limited impacts. Potential impacts include not just heavy
precipitation but also strong winds and coastal flooding as the
storm will have a tight pressure gradient with a very strong
wind field. Timing wise, the earliest this would arrive is late
day Saturday with the brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night
into Sunday if we get it. Given the very cold temperatures in
place both at the surface and aloft, all snow is strongly
favored in terms of precip type.
The latest NBM probabilistic data has trended downward a bit.
For snow amounts greater than 2 inches (plowable), the range is
from around 50 percent near the coast to 40 percent near the
I-95 corridor with lower probabilities N/W of the urban
corridor. For 6+ inches, these probs are around 30 percent near
I-95 up to 40 percent near the coast. These probabilities seem
reasonable at this point. Regardless of snow amounts, the storm
will likely track close enough to bring the area increasing
winds Saturday night into Sunday morning. Our current forecast
has N/NE winds forecast to be 15 to 25 gusting 25 to 35 mph
inland Sunday with winds 25 to 35 gusting up to 50 mph along the
coast. Winds could even end up a bit stronger than this if a
more N/W track with the storm occurs. This could lead to some
damage and power outages and will also help cause water to pile
up along the coast.
Dan Zarrow update Wednesday morning:
In Tuesday morning's weather blog entry, I laid out three broad storm track scenarios. According to my read of the latest model guidance, I believe all three of them are technically still alive. I can update the probabilities for each thusly:
1.) Complete Miss — 40%
2.) Direct Hit — 5%
3.) Coastal Hugger / Glancing Blow — 55%
While it would be foolish to take the "statewide snow bomb" option completely off the table, that possibility appears unlikely at this point. The other two are almost a toss-up, and I currently give the slight edge to the "glancing blow" solution. Most operational models have shifted notably east, away from the coast. But recent coastal storms have trended northwesterly in their final days. (Including last weekend's snowstorm.) My gut says it just makes sense to be thinking about at least some snow from this storm, especially to the southeast. But I also want to be clear that zero snow is absolutely a possibility here.
Read More: NJ weather: Update on frigid temps and weekend coastal storm | https://nj1015.com/nj-weather-frigi...2yWegg&utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
In Tuesday morning's weather blog entry, I laid out three broad storm track scenarios. According to my read of the latest model guidance, I believe all three of them are technically still alive. I can update the probabilities for each thusly:
1.) Complete Miss — 40%
2.) Direct Hit — 5%
3.) Coastal Hugger / Glancing Blow — 55%
While it would be foolish to take the "statewide snow bomb" option completely off the table, that possibility appears unlikely at this point. The other two are almost a toss-up, and I currently give the slight edge to the "glancing blow" solution. Most operational models have shifted notably east, away from the coast. But recent coastal storms have trended northwesterly in their final days. (Including last weekend's snowstorm.) My gut says it just makes sense to be thinking about at least some snow from this storm, especially to the southeast. But I also want to be clear that zero snow is absolutely a possibility here.
Read More: NJ weather: Update on frigid temps and weekend coastal storm | https://nj1015.com/nj-weather-frigi...2yWegg&utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
Nothing from the last 3-4 suites of model runs, including the 12Z models, which just came out changes my thinking of: 5-10% chance of a direct hit for everyone (6-12"+ for all), 40-50% chance of a coastal grazer (a few inches for 95 and 6"+ at the coast), and 40-50% chance of a whiff (with maybe 1-2" in AC/Cape May). And given it'll be in the 20s everywhere, any precip that falls will be snow of the light and fluffy kind and it will accumulate easily.
Briefly, the CMC is a grazer with an inch or so for 95 and 6"+ for the coast, the Euro is kind of a grazer with an inch for 95 and a couple of inches for the coast, the GFS, AIGFS are near whiffs with an inch or so at the coast and the ICON/UK are total whiffs (with the UK heading towards Bermuda, lol).
But the Euro, CMC and GFS ensemble means continue to show an inch or two for 95 and several inches for the coast, indicating there is still potential for a NW shift, since some of the individual ensemble runs are well NW of the mean. In addition, the NBM (model blend) is snowier than any model (not sure why) with several inches for 95 and 6}" fo the coast. Frankly the ensembles and NBM are why so many pros and the NWS are holding off on declaring the threat for a bigger storm dead.
Also, the 12Z runs (data from 7 am today) are still 4 days out from the event start, which is around 4-7 am Sunday, so 50-100 mile track shifts are still possible and even a 50 mile track shift in this storm would bring major changes to a forecast.
Regardless of snowfall amounts, this storm will become quite powerful (with the pressure of a Cat 3 hurricane, but not the winds) with 50+ mph winds at the coast likely, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding. And the snowfall in the Carolinas/SE VA/DelMarVA could be very impressive (6-12"+).
Lastly, after the brutal cold this week with temps possibly heading to 0F or below for many the next 3 mornings and highs around 20F, it'll still stay cold through the first 10 days in February with highs possibly not reaching above 32F - and there are several other snow threats in the long range modeling.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62552-its-coming-131-21/page/35/
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Looks like we'll be leaving Raleigh for New Bern on Friday morning, ahead of the storm's arrival. We've successfully brought Boone's winter to Raleigh, and now we're bringing it on to New Bern. Hope they're appreciative.
I spent today pulling off a rusted tire/wheel off my Yard Tractor Plow in an unheated garage at 25 degrees, took it to get an inner tube , and will re-install chains and wheel tomorrow.. just to be sure no snow no comes here this weekend lol.
After being teased by the 18Z Euro which showed a few inches for 95 and several inches for the coast, at 0Z tonight there is not an Operational model that shows more than 1" at the NJ coast and none show anything for 95 and several have any precip 50+ miles off the coast. So that should mean the threat is dead right? Almost, but not quite, as the Euro, GFS and CMC ensemble mean snowfall maps still show a few inches for 95 and several for the coast, likely because in their ensemble runs there are a few big hits that skew the mean and the model can't just "ignore" them. Tomer Burg's tweet thread below does a nice job of explaining the breakdown of ensemble means relative to the spreads around those means due to high runs.
We're still 3.5 days out and the uncertainty is still too high to dismiss the chance of at least a coastal scraper to give 95 an inch or two and the coast several inches, but the probability of that has lowered and the probability of a big hit for all is getting close to zero. I'd say we're now at maybe 2-3% for a big hit for all, 35-45% for a coastal scraper and 55-65% for a whiff (with maybe <1" for the coast). I also included Lee Goldberg's first guess for the event, which looks reasonable. However, the NWS remains more bullish on this threat, probably because of the ensembles and NBM showing some snow for 95 and even inland.
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And the cheese stands alone. The 6Z EPS ensemble mean is the last model of any I know of (to be fair I didn't check the Tanzanian - that's an inside joke on the weather boards) to still show appreciable snow inland from the coast (due to a few western hits) and just about all other models aren't even showing snow at the coast anymore (not counting Montauk). The CMC and GFS ensembles have finally thrown in the towel also. Yes, we're still 3+ days out so it's still possible for significant shifts west, but that's not the way to bet, especially in the time of AI models, which I don't recall making big shifts inside 3 days (but could be wrong on that).
So, I'd now say the chances of a big hit for all are just about zero (let's say 0.1% because there is some tiny possibility), the chances of a coastal scraper with a few inches near 95 and several inches towards the coast are maybe 10-20% and the likelihood of a complete whiff (with perhaps <1" at the immediate coast) is probably 80-90%. Certainly not a thread worthy storm.
So, I'd now say the chances of a big hit for all are just about zero (let's say 0.1% because there is some tiny possibility), the chances of a coastal scraper with a few inches near 95 and several inches towards the coast are maybe 10-20% and the likelihood of a complete whiff (with perhaps <1" at the immediate coast) is probably 80-90%. Certainly not a thread worthy storm.
Last I checked Sunday still looks like a coastal flood and dangerous wind day.
With help I finally was able to get thru the ice pack and get my car out of the garage Tuesday afternoon. I don't want more for a while.....please
Yes, but even the coastal flooding threat is being called minor right now and the winds may be up to 50 mph gusts at the coast so a wind advisory might be needed, but the further offshore the storm is, the lesser these risks become.
Only the Euro is showing >6" for most of western NC/SC (most are showing 3-6"), but other than that it looks reasonable, especially for eastern sections of SC/NC/VA . I'd go with the Euro-AIFS at this point as it's been the most consistent so far, while the Euro has been the snowy outlier.
As an aside, it's easy to see from this map, why some are still not counting out snow completely for our area, especially at the coast, as 1-3" snows are only 20-40 miles from the coast and 6" snows are only 50-75 miles away and we've seen shifts like that at 3.5 days out.
Dan Zarrow this morning
However, I think it would be foolish to downplay this storm too much and call it a complete miss at this time. As my first call snow forecast map indicates, I think there is a reasonable chance that light accumulating snow develops from late Saturday into Sunday along the southern and eastern edges of the state. As it stands, I do not expect statewide snowfall. And only minor travel impacts would occur with 2-inch snowfall.
But here's the thing: The storm is still almost 72 hours away. And so the track is still very much subject to change and "wiggle" some more, either closer to or farther away from the Jersey coast. As it does, this forecast may also need to be adjusted. I could see snow totals possibly doubling along the coast, going as high as 4" if the storm track drifts closer. Or going as low as zero statewide, if this thing clearly swings safely out to sea.
Because of that uncertainty, I may be a little early in putting out an initial snow map. But I felt the need to get ahead of some of the hype. This really is not turning into the impressive storm that it could have been. You may have read it being called a bomb cyclone, nasty nor'easter, or massive blizzard? Well, not for New Jersey. It's just a glancing blow.
Read More: NJ weather: Cold air gets colder, weekend storm a glancing blow | https://nj1015.com/nj-weather-weeke...MaZHcg&utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
However, I think it would be foolish to downplay this storm too much and call it a complete miss at this time. As my first call snow forecast map indicates, I think there is a reasonable chance that light accumulating snow develops from late Saturday into Sunday along the southern and eastern edges of the state. As it stands, I do not expect statewide snowfall. And only minor travel impacts would occur with 2-inch snowfall.
But here's the thing: The storm is still almost 72 hours away. And so the track is still very much subject to change and "wiggle" some more, either closer to or farther away from the Jersey coast. As it does, this forecast may also need to be adjusted. I could see snow totals possibly doubling along the coast, going as high as 4" if the storm track drifts closer. Or going as low as zero statewide, if this thing clearly swings safely out to sea.
Because of that uncertainty, I may be a little early in putting out an initial snow map. But I felt the need to get ahead of some of the hype. This really is not turning into the impressive storm that it could have been. You may have read it being called a bomb cyclone, nasty nor'easter, or massive blizzard? Well, not for New Jersey. It's just a glancing blow.
Read More: NJ weather: Cold air gets colder, weekend storm a glancing blow | https://nj1015.com/nj-weather-weeke...MaZHcg&utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
It's fascinating that the NWS Philly is still hugging the NBM (model blend), which is an outrageously snowy outlier right now (as is the NWS-Boston), but not the NWS-NYC, which is favoring the rest of the models showing little to no snow outside of eastern LI. See the discussions below from the NWS-Philly and NYC. I think the NBM can be a good tool, but it is time lagged (it includes current and previous runs of over a dozen models), which is good for not bouncing all over the place, but I don't understand relying on it when it's this much of an outlier. I'm including the NBM map below just to illustrate how far removed it is from any forecast or model.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
246 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the
exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at
this time. Generally speaking, the latest 00z deterministic
guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the
storm`s precip (snow) shield. The GFS has shifted slightly
farther N/W with the storm track and precip shield compared to
the 12z run. It offers light QPF for extreme E/SE NJ and south
Delaware. The CMC has moved its QPF sharply S/E and now barely
has any QPF for our area. The ECMWF has remained steady with
some light totals for NJ/DE. It offers a few inches of snow for
DE and 1 to 2 for Eastern NJ. Our present forecast will have
some of this in our (ending 12Z Sunday) snow fcst. More snow
could fall after 12Z Sunday. A decent amount of uncertainity
remains.
Potential storm impacts include not just precipitation but also
strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a
tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing
wise, the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with
the brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we
get it. Given the very cold temperatures in place both at the
surface and aloft, all snow is strongly favored in terms of
precip type.
When compared to Wednesday, the latest (01Z) NBM probabilistic
data has remained steady near the shore but trended down for
places close to the Delaware Valley. For snow amounts greater
than 2 inches (plowable), the range remains around 60-70 percent
near the coast to 25-35 percent near the I-95 corridor with
lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ inches,
these probs have dropped and are now around 20 percent near I-95
up to 35-50 percent near the coast.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming
weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing
would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday
evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling
continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with
the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave
pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to
progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the
500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of
Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the
vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras.
Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our
area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at
this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely
scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be
completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some
room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would
bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to
moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms
of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for
any changes.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
246 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this hinges on the
exact track the storm takes which still remains uncertain at
this time. Generally speaking, the latest 00z deterministic
guidance has our forecast area near the N/W fringe of the
storm`s precip (snow) shield. The GFS has shifted slightly
farther N/W with the storm track and precip shield compared to
the 12z run. It offers light QPF for extreme E/SE NJ and south
Delaware. The CMC has moved its QPF sharply S/E and now barely
has any QPF for our area. The ECMWF has remained steady with
some light totals for NJ/DE. It offers a few inches of snow for
DE and 1 to 2 for Eastern NJ. Our present forecast will have
some of this in our (ending 12Z Sunday) snow fcst. More snow
could fall after 12Z Sunday. A decent amount of uncertainity
remains.
Potential storm impacts include not just precipitation but also
strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a
tight pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing
wise, the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with
the brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we
get it. Given the very cold temperatures in place both at the
surface and aloft, all snow is strongly favored in terms of
precip type.
When compared to Wednesday, the latest (01Z) NBM probabilistic
data has remained steady near the shore but trended down for
places close to the Delaware Valley. For snow amounts greater
than 2 inches (plowable), the range remains around 60-70 percent
near the coast to 25-35 percent near the I-95 corridor with
lower probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ inches,
these probs have dropped and are now around 20 percent near I-95
up to 35-50 percent near the coast.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming
weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing
would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday
evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling
continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with
the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave
pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to
progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the
500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of
Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the
vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras.
Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our
area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at
this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely
scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be
completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some
room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would
bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to
moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms
of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for
any changes.
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Dan and I have been well aligned for awhile now - seems like a reasonable call and as expected, AccuWeather/Channel 7 has also decreased forecast snowfall, as per below , which is pretty consistent with Zarrow. The NWS has only issued partial snowfall maps through 7 am Sunday (if the storm hits, precip would last through Sun afternoon, so not worth posting these maps).
That's only through 7 am Sunday, which is why I didn't include it (don't love these partial event maps) - it would be significantly more through the end of the event with an inch or two along 95 and several inches at the coast based on the NBM.
Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in...the 12Z NAM moved the snow shield ~50 miles NW and now has <1" at the coast with a few inches just 20 miles off the coast. Thought maybe I could stop tracking, but no, lol.
Oh well, the RGEM didn't move and the GFS got worse and then the UK/CMC/Euro/AIFS all got a little worse or more, so no obvious NW trend, likely just model noise. Personally, I'll still watch this closely through the 0Z models tonight, as that's only 60 hours out and big trends rarely happen after that, so it's mostly dead, but not dead yet.
Oh well, the RGEM didn't move and the GFS got worse and then the UK/CMC/Euro/AIFS all got a little worse or more, so no obvious NW trend, likely just model noise. Personally, I'll still watch this closely through the 0Z models tonight, as that's only 60 hours out and big trends rarely happen after that, so it's mostly dead, but not dead yet.
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