OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
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Did he mention the high uncertainty and that it was more likely to not have a storm than to have one? If no, then I think that's a bit irresponsible, but if he did, I think it's fine to discuss possible storms in the medium range with the appropriate caveats.
But wait, there's more. We got 1/4" of snow overnight, bringing our total up to 12.0". I feel beat up after yesterday after shoveling ~18" worth of snow (3.5" of sleet has the mass of 10.5" of 10:1 snow and we had 8.3" of snow that was probably about 12:1 or ~7" of 10:1 snow). And driving wise, as I showed last night, driving on sleet is probably worse than on snow as it slides more easily, plus it melts more slowly. My 12.0" is higher than most in my area, but that's because I followed meteorologist Bill Syrett's (from PSU's renowned weather lab) guidance to measure the sleet separately to avoid compaction (would've been 11.0" just measuring depth); until this storm I've been lower than folks in Metuchen and Edison this winter.
https://theconversation.com/how-is-...-how-volunteers-tally-up-winter-storms-175628
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Thanks again for your reliable weather updates. It is appreciated.
Got between 15”-16” total in Succasunny. Didn’t get an OTG read before the storm but it was probably around 3”. Had about 2” of sleet throughout the day
He did not say that there is a high degree of uncertainty. It came across as if it were likely to occur. Maybe he will qualify it later but in the report I saw it seemed like a probable event.
Here's what I just posted elsewhere with regard to the ongoing cold and snowy pattern, which looks to continue through at least the first week of February.
The cold and snowy pattern continues with brutal cold this week and below normal temps next week and a growing chance for a snowstorm this Sat night/Sunday. I'm sure that's not what most people want to hear, but with regard to the cold, temps are unlikely to go above 25F through Sunday and might not go above 32F for another week after that, with many nights this week in the single digits this week and it looks like Thursday and Friday morning's lows will be below 0F. That's dangerous cold.
Also, for several days various long-range model runs have occasionally shown a big winter storm for this coming Sat night into Sunday, but most weren't. That changed last night with the Euro and Euro-AIFS models showing significant to major snowstorms and near misses on the GFS/CMC. And today's 6Z and new 12Z runs of all 4 models show a major snowstorm either hitting us or just missing us to the SE (with some snow at the coast).
It's not worth discussing each model this far out, as they're going to change, which is why most of the pros rely on the ensemble runs (where each model has its data inputs tweaked to evaluate model sensitivity, such that the mean has higher confidence) at this range and they all show the potential for at least a significant snowstorm this weekend. So, yes, the pattern is loaded with potential for a significant to major snowstorm, but too early to call for anything specific yet, given the high uncertainty in the outcome this far out inherent in numerical weather prediction.
But if you want to follow the ongoing discussion for this threat, see the thread below on AmericanWx, where they just started a thread on this risk - yes, almost 6 days out, which is unusual. Also, the Twitter thread below featuring a number of mets is worth perusing, as they're talking about this weekend's possible big storm; the first tweet is an old one, but below that are posts from Ryan Maue, Tomer Burg and Mark Margavage - included his tweet too, as it shows the Miller B style storm we just had with a primary low approaching from our SW and then reforming off the coast and the Miller A style storm, whichstarts along the Gulf of Mexico coast and rides up the east coast - these are often our most dynamic storms.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...-sleet-secs-124-126/page/175/#comment-7963813
The cold and snowy pattern continues with brutal cold this week and below normal temps next week and a growing chance for a snowstorm this Sat night/Sunday. I'm sure that's not what most people want to hear, but with regard to the cold, temps are unlikely to go above 25F through Sunday and might not go above 32F for another week after that, with many nights this week in the single digits this week and it looks like Thursday and Friday morning's lows will be below 0F. That's dangerous cold.
Also, for several days various long-range model runs have occasionally shown a big winter storm for this coming Sat night into Sunday, but most weren't. That changed last night with the Euro and Euro-AIFS models showing significant to major snowstorms and near misses on the GFS/CMC. And today's 6Z and new 12Z runs of all 4 models show a major snowstorm either hitting us or just missing us to the SE (with some snow at the coast).
It's not worth discussing each model this far out, as they're going to change, which is why most of the pros rely on the ensemble runs (where each model has its data inputs tweaked to evaluate model sensitivity, such that the mean has higher confidence) at this range and they all show the potential for at least a significant snowstorm this weekend. So, yes, the pattern is loaded with potential for a significant to major snowstorm, but too early to call for anything specific yet, given the high uncertainty in the outcome this far out inherent in numerical weather prediction.
But if you want to follow the ongoing discussion for this threat, see the thread below on AmericanWx, where they just started a thread on this risk - yes, almost 6 days out, which is unusual. Also, the Twitter thread below featuring a number of mets is worth perusing, as they're talking about this weekend's possible big storm; the first tweet is an old one, but below that are posts from Ryan Maue, Tomer Burg and Mark Margavage - included his tweet too, as it shows the Miller B style storm we just had with a primary low approaching from our SW and then reforming off the coast and the Miller A style storm, whichstarts along the Gulf of Mexico coast and rides up the east coast - these are often our most dynamic storms.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...-sleet-secs-124-126/page/175/#comment-7963813
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Holy F that sucked to shovel/blow. I had to bust it up with a metal shovel first. It broke into big wafers that I shoveled of blew away. The stuff I didnt bust up the snow blower stayed on top of and I had to do several passes to get to pavement. I was trying to push the front of my blower down while doing it.
And this is why I "preach" about how impactful sleet is despite it often being ignored as "not snow." It's also a big reason NYC streets are still mostly snow covered despite being salted (along with the unusual cold)
It was heavy too. I’ll take 18” of pure snow over that ****.
They already have a thread for the “next one” on AmericanWx. I saw FB filled with maps already. All hype for now. I even got a text from a co worker saying he hear we are getting a foot next weekend lol
Wow, this is damn cold. If forecast temps verify, this will be the coldest 5-day stretch in most of the NE megalopolis, including here, since Jan 1994, which was one of the two coldest stretches I can recall, along with Dec-83. I was in Ireland for work for the '93 stretch, but I remember '83 as I was a senior at RU. I especially remember my crappy VW Rabbit (hand-me down from my dad), seizing up on Metlars Lane when it was about 0F and smoke was coming from the hood and when I opened up the hood the engine was on fire, lol. That was the end of that car.
Yep, my snow/sleet had the same frozen mass as 18" of 10:1 snow. See my post above on the weekend threat with the American link - it's all over FB too, where I post a bunch. The consensus for a significant to major winter storm is important for confidence in a threat - the question is going to be track.
You shouldn't have gone out. You ignore advice that intelligent people say every time it snow. Stay off the damn roads.
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Thats true. He shouldnt be exempt from staying off the roads. No one should be out joying riding and people could have killed plus obstructing any snow removal operations
The roads were plowed and safe to drive on by evening and there were no formal restrictions on travel - just a recommendation to stay home, which is a good one, but heading out on a 5-minute drive to get some food (numerous places were open) with very few on the road wasn't a capital crime and wasn't close to joy-riding. First time I got stuck in 40+ years and I did get myself out with a little help. And you and your brother ignore advice from intelligent people every day, so there's that.
There's fairly high confidence in a significant coastal storm, but low confidence in its track this far out, such that the range of outcomes is quite wide, including a decent chance at a complete miss to our SE, but also a decent chance of significant snow in these parts. For this past storm, the models locked in fairly well on a significant storm for us about 5-6 days out and I made this thread about the storm early Tues am, which was about 5 days out (which would be about now with a Sat evening start for this storm) but I'm guessing this one will take more time, as Miller A's are notoriously difficult to forecast well - so maybe 3.5 days out, like Wednesday morning, assuming we have pretty good model consensus on an impactful storm (even if there are differences among the models).
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I broke the chain on my left rear tire 24hp Craftsman plow just as I finished up Sunday pm and this morning blew out the right rear tire off the rim trying to deal with the massive piles to push.
Sounds like that get out of dodge early thing for trip south sat morning may just materialize.geez.. even with all my prep..generac, plumbing shut offs, etc..I kinda feel a bit stressed about going with these temps and storms.
Statistics also show most accidents occur when one is lapping up vodka and can't even spell anymore.
Selective statistics - they also show that the major contributing factors to auto accidents are driver complacency, distraction, or fatigue on familiar, routine routes - regardless of snowy conditions or not.
Unless there is a state of emergency, one is free to drive as they see fit. Hopefully they are prepared with appropriate tires and drive appropriately for the conditions - but we have no control over that.
Quite honestly, I’m way more concerned with the many more idiots I have to share the road with in good conditions!
Now back to the weather discussion - hopefully, certain folks who seem to dislike this thread will stay in the other one if they just want to come here to stir the pot.
At 18Z, major snowstorm on the Euro-AIFS, significant snowstorm for the coast on the Euro (not much NW of 95) and a close miss off the coast on the GFS. Point is they're all showing substantial storms but the track disagreement is 200+ miles, which is fairly normal at this stage for a Miller A. The Euro is a "Cat 3" nor'easter (960 mbar pressure which is typical of a cat 3 hurricane, but nor'easters don't generate those kinds of winds as they're larger cold core systems) which would be a monster blizzard if the track shifts NW by 50-75 miles. Just sharing the potential of this system, not predicting it.
Me 2....and i wyz speckin of me own vodka consumption tenden c's.
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Used to live on Brookside Rd, 3 houses from the Mendham border. Mt Freedom!
I'm not too far from there. We get to Rosie's once in a while (has expanded significantly) and sometimes grab-go from Burrini's.
Sheeesh.... On Sunday we're relocating from Raleigh NC (where we've spent January) to New Bern where we'll spend the month of February, all this to escape the harsh winter back home in Boone, mind you. Great timing for this potential weather amidst our next move, ay?
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Every major global model at 0Z last night and 6Z this morning showed a powerful storm with over a foot of snow...offshore by 50-100 miles, with some models showing several inches for the coast and little for 95 and west. But those runs are still ~5 days before the start of the event (which looks to be about the same as Sunday's storm, around 4-7 am). However, the ensemble means from the major globals are a bit further NW with a few inches of snow for all of us, suggesting that the Op runs are too far SE.
And last week 5 days out the NBM (model blend) and most models were showing a precip shield putting our area on the northern fringe and most were concerned about suppression keeping the storm south of us. As we know now, the precip shield moved nearly 200 miles north over the next 5 days and we got hammered.
Doesn't guarantee it will move north at all for this storm, as it's different and even if there is a tendency for major snowstorms to move north over time in the models (this is true much of the time and we've seen it this winter too as 12/14 and 12/27 also trended north in the last 2-3 days before the event), that might not happen this time. But for most of the models right now, we don't need a 200 mile move north - 75-100 miles would suffice to hammer the vast majority of folks in the NE US. And that is obviously still possible, as it's well within the normal trach error at this range. So we track.
And last week 5 days out the NBM (model blend) and most models were showing a precip shield putting our area on the northern fringe and most were concerned about suppression keeping the storm south of us. As we know now, the precip shield moved nearly 200 miles north over the next 5 days and we got hammered.
Doesn't guarantee it will move north at all for this storm, as it's different and even if there is a tendency for major snowstorms to move north over time in the models (this is true much of the time and we've seen it this winter too as 12/14 and 12/27 also trended north in the last 2-3 days before the event), that might not happen this time. But for most of the models right now, we don't need a 200 mile move north - 75-100 miles would suffice to hammer the vast majority of folks in the NE US. And that is obviously still possible, as it's well within the normal trach error at this range. So we track.
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As I just posted, keep in mind we often see north or NW (on coastals like this one) trends from 5 days out - at this point last week folks from Raleigh to Richmond were looking at 12"+ of snow and they ended up with mostly sleet/freezing rain and rain as the storm shifted nearly 200 miles north. It's quite possible New Bern ends up with mostly rain (but big snow in Raleigh) if the storm moves NW by 75-100 miles - which, of course would turn our coastal scraper/near miss into a major snowstorm.
I would say we got about 6-8 inches of snow and ice here in Middletown, Delaware. You can walk across the snow now and not even leave a foot impression. The brutal cold and winds are worse than the snow. Also kind of sucks that my HOA takes care of driveway and walkways- because I sold my snowblower and they only got to our driveways about 4am this morning. And it is pure ice.
Da Zarrow this morning on the upcoming potential storm:
Scenario #1: Total Miss
This is where the Euro model currently sits. The giant cold air mass and high pressure to the north help steer the coastal low out to sea. We would see clouds and rough surf, and that's it.
I give this scenario a 30% chance of happening.
Scenario #2: Direct Hit
Perfect track, perfect phasing, perfect temperatures would yield an extended period of heavy snow and another "heck of a storm" day. Widespread 1 to 2 feet of snowfall across New Jersey.
I give this scenario a 10% chance of happening. Possible, but the least likely of these scenarios.
Scenario #3: Coast Hugger
This solution would be somewhere in the middle of #1 and #2, with a storm track that puts the left side of the storm along the Jersey Shore. In such a case, impactful snow would clip part — but not all — of New Jersey. Southern and eastern portions of the state would get the most snow, closest to the center of low pressure. Northwestern New Jersey would likely be the least snowy.
The problem is that there is a wide variety of possible outcomes that fall under this scenario, ranging from just a few inches right along the coast to a foot of snow. It all depends on the precise storm track. That will make for an incredibly tricky and precarious forecast.
Because of that variety, and because of the number of operational and ensemble forecast models that currently show some flavor of this solution playing out, I give this scenario a 60% chance of happening.
Read More: NJ weather: Highs only in the 20s, watching weekend coastal storm | https://nj1015.com/nj-weather-froze...iM2TBA&utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
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There's no percentage on his scenario #3... should we assume that's 60% as the other two options add up to 40%?