OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,189
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I measured in 3 different spots in Hamilton. Avg about 6", since then we got a bunch of sleet. Was hard to get a accurate measurement because of the drifts. It was so much easier to snow blow/shovel right as the sleet started. Once the sleet built up it was much heavier. Was out there for about 2 hours. I wanted more pure snow its so much easier. With the crazy range in model forecasts one of them had to be right. Some models busted some didn't. Snow was very dry as the leaf blower I was using to clear the cars.

Two weather threads sucks tbh. I've been posting in both.
It was silly to start another thread as I had been talking about the storm in this thread for days and it's pretty obvious it was about this storm once I updated the title.
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
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Official Snow Totals as of 1 PM from the NWS - most should have another 1-2" or so of sleet/snow since then (except maybe AC).
Allentown, PA: 9.2"
AC Airport, NJ: 5.9"
Philadelphia, PA: 7.4"
Reading, PA: 8.4"
Trenton, NJ: 7.2"
Wilmington, DE: 5.5"
EWR 8.0"
Central Park 7.2"
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,189
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Current snow/sleet line (the bright yellow color in NNJ that runs between 80 and 78), which hasn't budged in awhile.

1769375355781.png
 

Postman_1

Heisman
Mar 12, 2017
8,089
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Pretty rough out there

Type of snow you could pass out shoveling in and they find you in February.

 

thegock

All-Conference
Jul 30, 2012
1,397
1,268
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Measured in Central UC at half time. 8", 9",9.5",10"

Had to listen to my neighbor complaining about the plows burying her sidewalk as she shovels the third or 4th time. Time for a Jameson.
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
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As of 3 pm, we got another 1/4" of sleet (1" so far, on top of our 8.3" of snow), so we're up to 9.3" of sleet/snow. Temp up to 17F now and pretty windy.

We have another 0.7-0.8" of QPF (precip) to go as per the latest HRRR, that's 2-2.5" of sleet to go if all sleet (see the meso discussion below, which implies mostly/all sleet), but it also shows 0.1-0.2" QPF as freezing rain along 95 after 7 pm (assume that means sleet NW of 95 and rain SE of 95 during that time). Really don't want ZR, but since we might, I'm going to leave some sleet on my driveway/sidewalk to absorb any possible ZR rather than having an ice rink.

View attachment 1163723

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Just got in from shoveling a 3rd time, but this was the 2" of mostly sleet that have fallen since around 1 pm (6" worth of 10:1 snow by mass) and it was tough. So, between 3 and 5 pm we got 1" of pure sleet giving us 2" since 1 pm, when we had 8.3", so we're now at 10.3" of sleet/snow, besting my 10.1" guess. It's up to 17F and hoping no ZR in the last 0.4-0.5 QPF the HRRR says we'll get (mostly sleet) by midnight, but the HRRR is showing 0.1" ZR. What a storm!
 

newell138

Heisman
Aug 1, 2001
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How much snow/sleet did you get? A spotter reported 6" at 11:30 am. Any freezing rain so far? Looks like plain rain now with temps in the mid-30s.
Had about 6 inches then a few hours of sleet,maybe an inch but pouring rain now
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,189
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Just got in from shoveling a 3rd time, but this was the 2" of mostly sleet that have fallen since around 1 pm (6" worth of 10:1 snow by mass) and it was tough. So, between 3 and 5 pm we got 1" of pure sleet giving us 2" since 1 pm, when we had 8.3", so we're now at 10.3" of sleet/snow, besting my 10.1" guess. It's up to 17F and hoping no ZR in the last 0.4-0.5 QPF the HRRR says we'll get (mostly sleet) by midnight, but the HRRR is showing 0.1" ZR. What a storm!
As of 6 pm, we've gotten 2.5" of mostly sleet since 1 pm (1/2" the past hour, which is 1.5" worth of snow as we've been under an intense band); that brings our total up to 10.8" of snow/sleet and we have a shot at a foot. 17F.
 

ru109

All-American
Sep 18, 2011
6,909
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We have 16" so far with TWC calling for another 2-3" so they hit the mark pretty good for us.
 

Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
88,565
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Had about 6 inches then a few hours of sleet,maybe an inch but pouring rain now
Looks like that is headed up the coast.

Any thoughts- have a about 1 inch of compacted snow and sleet on the driveway--leave that in place and let it rain over it, or clear the driveway now before/during rain. Thinking the former is best.
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
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Some very recent area reports, so far: Bridgeport 13.0", Islip 11.2", Newark 9.8", LGA 9.0", CPK 8.8", JFK 8.3", Wash Hts 13.1", Wayne 14.0", Bayonne 12.5", Ridgefield 12.0", AC 6.0", Mt. Holly 8.4", Boonton 11.8", Pt. Pleasant 9.3", Hillsborough 11.5", Stockholm (Sussex Co.) 17.0", Philly 7.4", Edison, 10.5", Colts Neck 12.0"

Some locations in NWNJ/Poconos/Hudson Valley are going to hit 24" - insane snowfall rates up there - what could've been, lol. My 8-12" thinking for CNJ and 95 from Philly to NYC looks pretty good right now.

Will do a recap after I get some sleep, lol, but for now it's worth noting that the precip was driven by a serious baroclinic zone driving lift and precip even without a powerful low. One met on a board put the model battle well. Said the NAM was terrible with the pre-sleet snow thump, which is true, as it was showing 3-6" S of 78, but the other models were showing 7-10" (10:1) before any sleet and that verified pretty well. The NAM, however, was very good with the speed of the warm air advection from late morning through mid-afternoon as the sleet line was in Cape May around 9 am, but zoomed up to 78 by 2 pm; however, the NAM was also showing the sleet making it up to 84, but it never even made it to 80, allowing everyone along/north of 80 to be looking at 16"+. IMO, the CMC/RGEM both did really well since yesterday, showing the big thump and showing the sleet line making it up to 78 and giving folks S of 78 2"+ of sleet.
 
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fatsam98

Heisman
Mar 23, 2005
43,381
37,829
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Some very recent area reports, so far: Bridgeport 13.0", Islip 11.2", Newark 9.8", LGA 9.0", CPK 8.8", JFK 8.3", Wash Hts 13.1", Wayne 14.0", Bayonne 12.5", Ridgefield 12.0", AC 6.0", Mt. Holly 8.4", Boonton 11.8", Pt. Pleasant 9.3", Hillsborough 11.5", Stockholm (Sussex Co.) 17.0", Philly 7.4", Edison, 10.5", Colts Neck 12.0"

Some locations in NWNJ/Poconos/Hudson Valley are going to hit 24" - insane snowfall rates up there - what could've been, lol. My 8-12" thinking for CNJ and 95 from Philly to NYC looks pretty good right now.

Will do a recap after I get some sleep, lol, but for now it's worth noting that the precip was driven by a serious baroclinic zone driving lift and precip even without a powerful low. One met on a board put the model battle well. Said the NAM was terrible with the pre-sleet snow thump, which is true, as it was showing 3-6" S of 78, but the other models were showing 7-10" (10:1) before any sleet and that verified pretty well. The NAM, however, was very good with the speed of the warm air advection from late morning through mid-afternoon as the sleet line was in Cape May around 9 am, but zoomed up to 78 by 2 pm; however, the NAM was also showing the sleet making it up to 84, but it never even made it to 80, allowing everyone along/north of 80 to be looking at 16"+. IMO, the CMC/RGEM both did really well since yesterday, showing the big thump and showing the sleet line making it up to 78 and giving folks S of 78 2"+ of sleet.
I live well north of 80 and it's been sleeting here for at least a couple hours
 
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Kbe4

Senior
Nov 25, 2025
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BTW, my wife showed me an article as to what age one should stop with the snow shoveling.
It was 45.
So I relented and we now have our landscaper do it...mostly.
Well, it turns out we don't need our landscaper to clean things up. My next door neighbor's kid took care of it all with this giant snow blower they have. He wouldn't even take the cash that I offered him for the help.
See...it's not always about the money.
 

Postman_1

Heisman
Mar 12, 2017
8,089
13,021
113
Got a little over 2” of sleet out there now. Seems like it’s gonna be a pita to shovel or snow blow tomorrow. Hopefully it’s not as bad as I anticipate
 

newell138

Heisman
Aug 1, 2001
36,877
47,315
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Looks like that is headed up the coast.

Any thoughts- have an about 1 inch of compacted snow and sleet on the driveway--leave that in place and let it rain over it, or clear the driveway now before/during rain. Thinking the former is best.
We shall see. I cleared it all when the rain started so may wake up to a sheet of ice but I have nowhere to go so not the worst thing
 
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Sweet Pea's Corner

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Sep 10, 2001
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Well, it turns out we don't need our landscaper to clean things up. My next door neighbor's kid took care of it all with this giant snow blower they have. He wouldn't even take the cash that I offered him for the help.
See...it's not always about the money.
That's awfully rude to the landscaper if he has you on his list.I ve had that done to me and after driving to his place it pissed me off. At least give him a call not to come.
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,189
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As of 6 pm, we've gotten 2.5" of mostly sleet since 1 pm (1/2" the past hour, which is 1.5" worth of snow as we've been under an intense band); that brings our total up to 10.8" of snow/sleet and we have a shot at a foot. 17F.
As of 8 pm, we have 3.3" of sleet since 1 pm (0.8" the past 2 hours, which is 2.4" worth of snow - still under heavy bands), which brings our total up to 11.6" of snow/sleet, so I think we're going to hit a foot, which I didn't think would happen once it changed to sleet with 8.3" of snow o the ground. It's up to 19F.

And here's the embarrassing but life affirming thing that happened afterwards. In every storm, once the local roads are plowed I like to drive around a little just to see how the roads are and maybe to pick up something to eat. So I stopped at Wawa and then, when Mickey D's was closed, the lights at Popeye's were on, so I pulled in without realizing their parking lot hadn't been plowed, but with my Forester, I was going through it fine until I was about to merge onto Old Post Rd (Edison) and got stuck in a plowed bank I couldn't see well. D'oh!

I went across the street to a gas station to ask for a shovel to borrow/buy and luckily the man working there (an Indian gentleman about my age) said he didn't have a shovel, but said we could use the windshield squeegee thing and came with me to help try to get me out which was fantastic. He and I dug the wheels out for 5-10 minutes and then I rocked it back and forth a few times and got free. I thanked him profusely and offered him $50, but he declined and said we all need good karma (he was Indian) and enjoys helping people and I said how I've done the same thing many times and he smiled and said the world needs more people who just help each other. So a ****** situation became a very nice moment. And I need to get shovels for our cars, lol.
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,189
44,271
113
Looks like that is headed up the coast.

Any thoughts- have a about 1 inch of compacted snow and sleet on the driveway--leave that in place and let it rain over it, or clear the driveway now before/during rain. Thinking the former is best.
If you might get freezing rain, let it fall on some sleet/snow, where it'll get absorbed and be fairly easy to clear; clearing it will allow the ZR to just form a skating rink glaze on your driveway, especially if you get ZR with temps in the 20s, which you appear to be in. I left an inch of sleet on my driveway for that reason, just in case we get ZR.
 
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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,189
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Got a little over 2” of sleet out there now. Seems like it’s gonna be a pita to shovel or snow blow tomorrow. Hopefully it’s not as bad as I anticipate
As long as you do it during the day when it's in the upper 20s and hopefully won't freeze too bad, then wait, but it's going to be in the single digits tomorrow night and won't get above 20F all week, so don't wait until then.
 

Knight Shift

Heisman
May 19, 2011
88,565
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If you might get freezing rain, let it fall on some sleet/snow, where it'll get absorbed and be fairly easy to clear; clearing it will allow the ZR to just form a skating rink glaze on your driveway, especially if you get ZR with temps in the 20s, which you appear to be in. I left an inch of sleet on my driveway for that reason, just in case we get ZR.
ZR had me scratching my head. I looked it up. Freezing rain!
I know have ZR and warm nose in my vocabulary after this storm. I will be riot at cocktail parties with the weather weenies.
 

FastMJ

All-American
Jan 6, 2007
33,929
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ZR had me scratching my head. I looked it up. Freezing rain!
I know have ZR and warm nose in my vocabulary after this storm. I will be riot at cocktail parties with the weather weenies.
I'd love to know why they call it a warm nose!
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,189
44,271
113
As of 8 pm, we have 3.3" of sleet since 1 pm (0.8" the past 2 hours, which is 2.4" worth of snow - still under heavy bands), which brings our total up to 11.6" of snow/sleet, so I think we're going to hit a foot, which I didn't think would happen once it changed to sleet with 8.3" of snow o the ground. It's up to 19F.

And here's the embarrassing but life affirming thing that happened afterwards. In every storm, once the local roads are plowed I like to drive around a little just to see how the roads are and maybe to pick up something to eat. So I stopped at Wawa and then, when Mickey D's was closed, the lights at Popeye's were on, so I pulled in without realizing their parking lot hadn't been plowed, but with my Forester, I was going through it fine until I was about to merge onto Old Post Rd (Edison) and got stuck in a plowed bank I couldn't see well. D'oh!

I went across the street to a gas station to ask for a shovel to borrow/buy and luckily the man working there (an Indian gentleman about my age) said he didn't have a shovel, but said we could use the windshield squeegee thing and came with me to help try to get me out which was fantastic. He and I dug the wheels out for 5-10 minutes and then I rocked it back and forth a few times and got free. I thanked him profusely and offered him $50, but he declined and said we all need good karma (he was Indian) and enjoys helping people and I said how I've done the same thing many times and he smiled and said the world needs more people who just help each other. So a ****** situation became a very nice moment. And I need to get shovels for our cars, lol.
Sleet finished up around 9:15 pm and we added 0.2" more sleet for 3.5" total sleet + 8.3" snow for a grand total of 11.8" (unless we get some light snow overnight, which is possible), exceeding my 10.1" guess which I actually thought was aggressive yesterday morning, lol. Season total is up to 29.3", which is more than an average winter (about 28" in NB) and we have a lot more winter to go with plenty of cold air over the next 2 weeks and a few chances for more snow. Just reached our high temp for the day of 20F. My 4th and last shovel of the last 2" of dense sleet was tough - gonna sleep well tonight.
 

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,189
44,271
113
Mike Masco predicting a possible snowstorm for next Sunday!

See his Twitter !
Been tracking this one for days. Euro has a monster snowstorm, AIFS has a significant snowstorm, especially for the coast, GFS/UK have a near miss with significant snow just offshore (and a bit for the coast), while the CMC is a miss offshore, but 12-24 hours earlier these models all showed nothing or near misses and before that, occasionally one model has shown a big storm but the others haven't. This is why the ensembles are better at this range and they all show a few to several inches for next Sunday, with the Euro-AIFS ensembles showing a 7-day record of 6-7" for all - supposedly a record at this range and the AIFS has been the best model this year. So, yes, loaded with potential for a major snowstorm, but too early to call for anything specific yet. Which is why I didn't update this thread for yesterday's storm until about 4.5 days out.
 
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RUGuitarMan1

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Apr 5, 2021
2,472
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I was watching TWC this morning and Cantore is in NYC where he covered this storm. He was doing a summary wrap up of this storm, then mentions a potential storm for next weekend. He drops the “B” word as in blizzard for the mid Atlantic and Northeast for next weekend. Come on man, do we need to mention this now? Can’t they wait until Wed or Thurs? So much can change over the next 3 or 4 days. It seems very sensationalistic at this point.