Toggle sidebar

OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms

R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,192
44,274
113
Just for fun, here are the latest 0Z models showing total snowfall using 10:1 (snow:liquid) ratios, so folks can try to see which model did best after the storm. I'm also including, for New Brunswick (this is a Rutgers sports board after all and NB is a point on these maps) the total precip (QPF - quantitative precipitation forecast) for each model and the total freezing rain (ZR), so one can subtract the snow and ZR from the total QPF to get how much sleet is being predicted.

Keep in mind that the snow totals are at 10:1 ratios, which nobody thinks will occur, except near the coast, since for much of the heaviest snow, the column will be very cold and vertical lift will be strong, which typically grows great dendritic flakes which typically would make at least 15:1 ratio snow, but that ratio will get lower as the sleet line nears, so I've been thinking 13:1 might be a good ratio for the 95 corridor, whereas ratios N of 78 where it'll be mostly/all snow could get ratios of 15-20:1. Snow ranged from 5.6" to 12.4" with most in the 8-11" range, while sleet was all over the place ranging from 0 to 2.6" with no "camps" really. And ZR was less than 0.2" for all cases.

First up the HRRR: 1.5" QPF - 11.6" of snow (1.16" QPF) - 0.12" ZR = 0.22" QPF as sleet or 0.66" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)
1769316824466.png


Next up the NAM: 1.4" QPF - 5.6" of snow (0.56" QPF) - 0.02" ZR = 0.82" QPF as sleet or 2.46" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)
1769317382208.png

ICON: 1.5" QPF - 6.3" of snow (0.63" QPF) - 0.00" ZR = 0.87" QPF as sleet or 2.61" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)
1769317460638.png

RRFSA (new NAM): 1.3" QPF - 12.4" of snow (1.24" QPF) - 0.06" ZR = 0.0" QPF as sleet or 0.0" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)
1769318081546.png


GFS: 1.5" QPF - 5.9" of snow (0.59" QPF) - 0.16" ZR = 0.75" QPF as sleet or 2.25" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)
1769318418539.png

GDPS (CMC): 1.8" QPF - 9.5" of snow (0.95" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.85" QPF as sleet or 2.55" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)
1769318467733.png


UK: 1.1" QPF - 10.2" of snow (1.02" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.08" QPF as sleet or 0.24" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)
1769318664249.png


Euro-AIFS: 1.3" QPF - 12.2" of snow (1.22" QPF) - 0.0" ZR = 0.08" QPF as sleet or 0.24" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)
1769318974768.png


Euro: 1.2" QPF - 7.2" of snow (0.72" QPF) - 0.1" ZR = 0.38" QPF as sleet or 1.14" sleet (assumes 3:1 ratio)
1769320267997.png
 

Attachments

  • 1769317717302.png
    1769317717302.png
    512.2 KB · Views: 3
  • Like
Reactions: phs73rc77gsm83
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,192
44,274
113
RU848789 said:
New NWS map and warnings are posted...

Got stuff to do, so this will actually be brief as there's not a lot more to say. Looking at the new snowfall map and warnings, it seems odd that NWS lowered warnings so much, especially for CNJ, changing the warning from 7-13" to 6-10" for Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer (and the 95-bordering counties in SEPA/SNJ). They could've just keep it at Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer and SEPA and at 8-12" and put the SNJ counties at 5-8" with Monmouth/Ocean, since the CNJ/EPA counties are all in the 8-12" swath.

I'm also missing something on the further reductions as almost every model shows 6-8" of 10:1 snow for CNJ (8-11" with 13:1 ratios) and some show 8-11" of 10:1 snow and the NBM is still showing 9-10" (at model ratio); only the 12Z NAM shows 4-6" of 10:1 and the brand new 18Z NAM that just came out shows 5-7" of 10:1 snow (6-8" at 13:1). And then add another 1"+ of sleet and sticking with their 7-13" range (or 8-12" which I like better) would've been fine, IMO. In addition, the rest of the 18Z models, so far have ticked a bit snowier.

The Poconos, Lehigh Valley and Sussex Warren are all under warnings for 10-13. From the NWS-NYC, they kept W. Passaic, the Hudson Valley and the coastal CT counties at 10-16" and lowered the NENJ/NYC/LI counties from 10-14" to 8-12". Obviously, with precip mostly unchanged and lowered snowfall forecasts, the difference will be sleet with 1-2" of sleet probably being common for all counties south of 78. The freezing rain (ZR) forecast was lowered a bit to 0.1-0.2" for areas near 95 in CNJ/SNJ (and Monmouth) with <0.1" elsewhere.

Also, as I've said since their first map came out, they should've started with 8-12" and adjusted upwards if needed; starting at 12-18" for everyone was a recipe for walking it back for 2+ days. Oh well.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=OKX&wwa=winter storm warning

View attachment 1161762

View attachment 1161786
Click to expand...
Looks like the NWS heard me, lol, as they bumped their warnings back to where they were last night increasing snowfall across the board. Still don't know why they dropped amounts earlier today. Anyway, here are the updated warnings; maps aren't out yet.

NWS-Philly Counties
  • For Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton, the warning is for 10-16" of snow/sleet, but no freezing rain (ZR)
  • For counties in PA/NJ south of 78 (except coastal counties south of Ocean), i.e.,Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Chester-Montgomery (and Newcastle/Kent in DE), the warnings are for 7-13" of snow and sleet with up to 0.1" of freezing rain accretion, especially SW of Trenton as per the ice map below.
  • For Monmouth, Ocean, SE Burlington, Atlantic and Cape May counties the warning is for 6-10" of snow/sleet plus about 0.1" ZR
  • For all of Delaware the warnings are for 5-8" of snow/sleet and up to 0.2" of ZR
NWS-NYC Counties
  • For W. Passaic, the entire Hudson Valley and the coastal CT counties, the warning is for 12-16" of snow
  • For NENJ (Union/Essex/Hudson/Bergen/E Passaic), NYC and LI, the warning is for 8-12" snow/sleet plus a light glaze of ZR
,
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,192
44,274
113
Ok boyz and grrrrrllls - as of 6:30 am we have 3/4" of the most exquisite pixie dust snow imaginable otg at 11 frikkin' degrees F! Woke up for a minute at about 4:50 am and snow had just started then.
 
  • Like
Reactions: runrutgersrun
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,192
44,274
113
RU848789 said:
Looks like the NWS heard me, lol, as they bumped their warnings back to where they were last night increasing snowfall across the board. Still don't know why they dropped amounts earlier today. Anyway, here are the updated warnings; maps aren't out yet.

NWS-Philly Counties
  • For Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton, the warning is for 10-16" of snow/sleet, but no freezing rain (ZR)
  • For counties in PA/NJ south of 78 (except coastal counties south of Ocean), i.e.,Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Chester-Montgomery (and Newcastle/Kent in DE), the warnings are for 7-13" of snow and sleet with up to 0.1" of freezing rain accretion, especially SW of Trenton as per the ice map below.
  • For Monmouth, Ocean, SE Burlington, Atlantic and Cape May counties the warning is for 6-10" of snow/sleet plus about 0.1" ZR
  • For all of Delaware the warnings are for 5-8" of snow/sleet and up to 0.2" of ZR
NWS-NYC Counties
  • For W. Passaic, the entire Hudson Valley and the coastal CT counties, the warning is for 12-16" of snow
  • For NENJ (Union/Essex/Hudson/Bergen/E Passaic), NYC and LI, the warning is for 8-12" snow/sleet plus a light glaze of ZR
,
Click to expand...
Here's the final NWS-Philly snow and ice maps they put out around 4 am, reflecting the small increases relative to yesterday (last graphic for reference) as seen in the updated warnings in the quoted post above. The ice forecast is a bit of a decrease vs. yesterday, which is good. The rest is watching the sky and the radar.

Edit: added in the NWS total event snowfall map first. Didn't notice that the map I posted below starts at 7 am and areas SW of Philly got a few inches from 4 am to 7 am, which is why the first map has more SW of Philly. It's a bit annoying they aren't all event maps or at least don't label the "partial" maps as not including what has fallen before time x.

1769347298738.png

1769342960753.png

1769342973906.png


1769343021183.png
 

Attachments

  • 1769343116874.png
    1769343116874.png
    471 KB · Views: 3
Last edited:
G

GeoRingoes

All-Conference
Jan 19, 2015
926
1,325
93
Sweet Pea's Corner said:
Plow just came thru Raritan Twp 7 am. Half inch here. John Elliot CBS euro 11.8 nam 8.3
Click to expand...
Off Johanna Farms Rd in Raritan Twp. 1 1/2" maybe closer to 2" on top of patio table.
Driveway will be plowed later today but I'll need to snow blow a pee loop in back yard for our dog. Not sure best time to do that given the sleet/freezinf rain forecast for this afternoon. Suggestions welcome.
 
Sweet Pea's Corner

Sweet Pea's Corner

All-American
Sep 10, 2001
17,824
5,684
113
GeoRingoes said:
Off Johanna Farms Rd in Raritan Twp. 1 1/2" maybe closer to 2" on top of patio table.
Driveway will be plowed later today but I'll need to snow blow a pee loop in back yard for our dog. Not sure best time to do that given the sleet/freezinf rain forecast for this afternoon. Suggestions welcome.
Click to expand...
Pretty close neighbor. Moved here last August. When us that smell gonna go away from Johanna Farms? First thing I noticed. Gonna be a wee wee and pooping pad for Sweet Pea today. Wanted nothing to do with going out.
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,192
44,274
113
4" in AC, 8" in Baltimore so far, a bit ahead of forecasts for this time and AC is already at where the NAM had it for the whole storm with sleet not in sight yet, so...

Reports of 20-30: ratios in our area - haven't measured to confirm, but it's pixie dust and bone dry
 
J

JL23

Junior
Oct 4, 2005
845
284
63
GeoRingoes said:
Off Johanna Farms Rd in Raritan Twp. 1 1/2" maybe closer to 2" on top of patio table.
Driveway will be plowed later today but I'll need to snow blow a pee loop in back yard for our dog. Not sure best time to do that given the sleet/freezinf rain forecast for this afternoon. Suggestions welcome.
Click to expand...
I remember JF Road when it was just a dirt road
I dated the girl in high school who's family owned Johnana Farms, and had a buddy who lived on JF Road for years (before all those McMansions got built)
They sold their house a few years back and retired down to Florida - but many memories on that road
 
J

JL23

Junior
Oct 4, 2005
845
284
63
Sweet Pea's Corner said:
Pretty close neighbor. Moved here last August. When us that smell gonna go away from Johanna Farms? First thing I noticed. Gonna be a wee wee and pooping pad for Sweet Pea today. Wanted nothing to do with going out.
Click to expand...
Didn't see your replay, told Geo I'm very familiar w/JF Road
Lots of time spent there
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,192
44,274
113
RU848789 said:
As of 7:30 am snow intensity and flake size have increased and we have 2.0" otg at 11F, so 1.25" last hour. This stuff has to be 15-20:1 ratio snow, it's so light and fluffy.
Click to expand...
As of 8:00 am 2.6" otg at 11F, so 0.6" the last 30 min - can't imagine not making it to at least 8" with at least 5 hours of >1"/hr rates before any changeover (and hopefully the changeover is after that and rates are more than 1" per hour until then).
 
thegock

thegock

All-Conference
Jul 30, 2012
1,408
1,271
113
Union County

Wind picked up noticeably around 7:48am. Flakes more prevalent, 2.

No one on the road. Almost all business closed downtown. 1.8 inches so far.

2601.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: Smols and borochop
F

FastMJ

All-American
Jan 6, 2007
33,929
6,614
68
GeoRingoes said:
Off Johanna Farms Rd in Raritan Twp. 1 1/2" maybe closer to 2" on top of patio table.
Driveway will be plowed later today but I'll need to snow blow a pee loop in back yard for our dog. Not sure best time to do that given the sleet/freezinf rain forecast for this afternoon. Suggestions welcome.
Click to expand...
Pee loop lol. That’s a new phrase I haven’t seen
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,192
44,274
113
RU848789 said:
As of 8:00 am 2.6" otg at 11F, so 0.6" the last 30 min - can't imagine not making it to at least 8" with at least 5 hours of >1"/hr rates before any changeover (and hopefully the changeover is after that and rates are more than 1" per hour until then).
Click to expand...
As of 8:30 am snowing moderately and we have 3.1" otg (1.1" last hour) and it's 11F.
 
G

GeoRingoes

All-Conference
Jan 19, 2015
926
1,325
93
FastMJ said:
Pee loop lol. That’s a new phrase I haven’t seen
Click to expand...
K dog did ok this morning, but will need a "Pee Loop" if >6" or won't go beyond the patio. The deer will use it to gain access to the grass. Had 9 deer in backyard at 8am.
 
G

GeoRingoes

All-Conference
Jan 19, 2015
926
1,325
93
Sweet Pea's Corner said:
Pretty close neighbor. Moved here last August. When us that smell gonna go away from Johanna Farms? First thing I noticed. Gonna be a wee wee and pooping pad for Sweet Pea today. Wanted nothing to do with going out.
Click to expand...
I'm southwest of Johanna Foods; no problems. Have head from others about smell. Good luck with Sweet Pea. "Kaley" begins to bottom out if >6-8" . Deer, have a lot as we backup against Zang and Mavrode farms, will use "Pee Loop" to get to the grass, esp if snow ices and freezes up.
 
T

TheREALRutgers1976

Redshirt
Jun 30, 2025
15
10
3
About 18 degrees down here in South Wall. Started about 4:30AM or so. I'm estimating at least 3" so far, but since it is so windy here, there's plenty of drifting. Coming down pretty heavily now. Already made a pee loop for the dog, but will have to update that a few times.
 
RutgersK1d

RutgersK1d

All-Conference
Dec 1, 2020
1,016
1,291
93
I’d say 2-3” inches in Mercer County (Hamilton) Roads are a mess but nothing the jeep can’t handle. Stay warm and safe everyone.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Postman_1
Postman_1

Postman_1

Heisman
Mar 12, 2017
8,089
13,021
113
RutgersK1d said:
I’d say 2-3” inches in Mercer County (Hamilton) Roads are a mess but nothing the jeep can’t handle. Stay warm and safe everyone.
Click to expand...
I'm in Hamilton as well. Roads are always a mess especially the side roads. They have not plowed mine once this season so far.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RutgersK1d
newell138

newell138

Heisman
Aug 1, 2001
36,909
47,363
112
RU848789 said:
4" in AC, 8" in Baltimore so far, a bit ahead of forecasts for this time and AC is already at where the NAM had it for the whole storm with sleet not in sight yet, so...

Reports of 20-30: ratios in our area - haven't measured to confirm, but it's pixie dust and bone dry
Click to expand...
I’m not buying 4 inches in AC. We have maybe 3 here in OC
 
R

RuBird

Heisman
Jun 28, 2001
18,720
23,778
113
RU848789 said:
1/19/26 Edit: Go to the last page for discussion of the potential 1/25 snowstorm

Well, I've certainly been less interested in RU sports this year, so my posting here is way down. Not even sure how interested I am in doing weather threads if my sports interest is down, but let's see how this one goes. Anyway, most of the global models are showing shots of Canadian warming over the next 2 weeks "stretching" the Polar Vortex, which typically circulates tightly from west to east above 60N latitude near the North Pole and these stretching events can lead a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event for the stratospheric (above about 50,000 feet) portion of this polar vortex, leading to an actual reversal of the wind from westerly to easterly at 60N and 10 hPa (about 150,000 feet up).

SSW's occur every few years, but there has never been one in November during the satellite era. SSW's often lead to displacements in the tropospheric part (from 50,000 feet down to the surface) of the polar vortex (TPV), causing cold polar air to spill down fairly far south into parts of Eurasia and North America, often including the eastern US, potentially creating wintry conditions if the cold air intrusion of the polar vortex trough lines up well with the jet stream around the periphery of that trough, allowing it to drive storm systems into the eastern US, sometimes including wintry nor'easters. The first graphic shows the "normal" stratospheric polar vortex and tropospheric polar vortex, while the 2nd graphic shows what can happen when an SSW occurs and lobes of the TPV rotate down into more temperate latitudes like ours.

So what does this mean for us? Well, the models are showing our area being warmer than normal through about Thanksgiving, but then turning colder than normal (and possibly much colder than normal at times) for at least the subsequent 2-3 weeks into mid-December, likely due to the SSW event, as per the 3rd graphic below. It's still not a given that the SSW materializes and leads to polar vortex cold air intrusions into our area - and even if those two things do occur, if the storm tracks don't align well with when we have cold air in place, we might not see appreciable snow - but probabilistically, setups like these are more likely to have above normal snowfall for that period than not. Regardless, it should be an interesting time to track the weather.

The first link, below, is to Judah Cohen's blog on the polar vortex - he's one of the foremost experts on the polar vortex and SSW's and I'd call him skeptical, but quietly excited for the prospects of a SSW and possible wintry weather. The 2nd link is to a simple FB search on SSW's, which has a host of interesting posts from the past day or two by a number of meteorologists on all of this (a few are clickbait - rule of thumb is to ignore the posts by non-mets).

https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

https://www.facebook.com/search/top?q=stratospheric%20warming

View attachment 1007970
View attachment 1007971
View attachment 1007972
Click to expand...
image.jpg
About 3 inches so far in Hawthorne.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU848789 and thegock
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,192
44,274
113
RU848789 said:
As of 8:30 am snowing moderately and we have 3.1" otg (1.1" last hour) and it's 11F.
Click to expand...
As of 9:30 am, snowing moderately to heavily now with 4.0" otg (0.9" last hour) and it's still 11F. Just spent the last 40 minutes shoveling and discovered a new broom technique that worked fantastic: had two wide push brooms, one in each hand and pushed them together about 8-10' to make a big pile without the snow falling to the sides as much - then just used the shovel to throw the pile aside. Wish I had thought of that 33 years ago, lol - works very well for 3" of light powder.
 
thegock

thegock

All-Conference
Jul 30, 2012
1,408
1,271
113
Temperature in the UC are running 3 or 4 degrees below the forecast.

Thoughts, #'s ?
 
R

RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
65,192
44,274
113
RU848789 said:
As of 9:30 am, snowing moderately to heavily now with 4.0" otg (0.9" last hour) and it's still 11F. Just spent the last 40 minutes shoveling and discovered a new broom technique that worked fantastic: had two wide push brooms, one in each hand and pushed them together about 8-10' to make a big pile without the snow falling to the sides as much - then just used the shovel to throw the pile aside. Wish I had thought of that 33 years ago, lol - works very well for 3" of light powder.
Click to expand...
As of 10:30 am, snowing legitimately heavily (1/4 mile visibility) with a bit larger dendrites and we now have 5.2" otg (1.2" last hour) at 13F (10F dewpoint). Just went for a Jeb Walk and took a few pics - gorgeous out there.

May be an image of fog, arctic and tree
 
  • Like
Reactions: runrutgersrun
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom