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MAYBE only Martinelli is blameless in this trainwreck

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Sec_112

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And his defense is far from perfect.

But this team and no single player outside of Martinelli does ANYTHING well that you can depend on night after night. Free-throw shooting, perimeter defense, interior D, 3-pt shooting, inside game, shot selection, getting to the line. Nothing.

The problems go well beyond the upper-classmen who take a beating out here.

1) Max Green was brought here to simply score and shoot 3s. He's shooting 21% from 3. It's clear this was a big leap for him like others, yet he seems to get a pass. He's had a slow release. He's often not ready to shoot, and he's clearly uncomfortable shooting off the dribble even though he often gets open. Shot fake, dribble, drive get to the lane, pass out to a team that can't shoot a 3.

And I won't even bother with his defense. However, it's starting to improve almost to the point of acceptable. But not quite.

2) This team needed Singleton to be more than a freshman. He'll be ok, but unfortunately, this year, he's a freshman.

3) To keep this reasonably short, I don't know what Collins is thinking most nights this year. He's making a bad situation worse. I understand he's doing a lot of culture/program-building, but he's really going overboard.

a) To give Clayton the time he gets and give absolutely nothing to KJ would be one of my top-five post-season questions if I were Jackson. Windham better have done something truly damning, or it's just a serious problem as a coach.

b) You have a bad defensive team. And you have one guy who can strongly guard all five positions in a switching defense. And now Mullins is getting the KJ treatment?!?!?! Unf-ing beliveable!!

c) For me, Collins absolutely kills his short-term credibility when he finds a "teachable moment" for any number of players making, dumb minor mistakes, but gives Clayton an endless number of opportunities despite some really bad play. Regular dumb on-court decisions vs. the correct decision and repeatedly poor execution? The outcome is the same.

When you try to make examples of four of your ten reasonably-potential rotation guys, the problem is more than the players.

d) You just can't play West and Reid at the same time. I don't blame anyone who wants Reid in a more secondary role, but both of them at the same time makes a bad situation worse.

e) Collins is far too in love with his Charlie Hustle guys - Clayton (as I may have mentioned), Ciaravino and Mullins until a few games ago. All of them are generally the same, nice defense (nothing great), okay rebounding, take care of the ball, crappy outside shooting and not much other offense. You just can't play any of these two guys at the same time. Far too often, the scoring droughts have two of these guys in the lineup.

Admittedly, I have hope for better play from Ciaravino, but he needs to show that minimal production against Nebraska on a regular basis.

For me, CC is nowhere near a hot seat, but he hasn't helped this group this year. This is an all-around mess that goes WAY beyond as specific players or one or two on-court weaknesses.
 
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Medill '03

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Sec_112 said:
And his defense is far from perfect.

But this team and no single player outside of Martinelli does ANYTHING well that you can depend on night after night. Free-throw shooting, perimeter defense, interior D, 3-pt shooting, inside game, shot selection, getting to the line. Nothing.

The problems go well beyond the upper-classmen who take a beating out here.

1) Max Green was brought here to simply score and shoot 3s. He's shooting 21% from 3. It's clear this was a big leap for him like others, yet he seems to get a pass. He's had a slow release. He's often not ready to shoot, and he's clearly uncomfortable shooting off the dribble even though he often gets open. Shot fake, dribble, drive get to the lane, pass out to a team that can't shoot a 3.

And I won't even bother with his defense. However, it's starting to improve almost to the point of acceptable. But not quite.

2) This team needed Singleton to be more than a freshman. He'll be ok, but unfortunately, this year, he's a freshman.

3) To keep this reasonably short, I don't know what Collins is thinking most nights this year. He's making a bad situation worse. I understand he's doing a lot of culture/program-building, but he's really going overboard.

a) To give Clayton the time he gets and give absolutely nothing to KJ would be one of my top-five post-season questions if I were Jackson. Windham better have done something truly damning, or it's just a serious problem as a coach.

b) You have a bad defensive team. And you have one guy who can strongly guard all five positions in a switching defense. And now Mullins is getting the KJ treatment?!?!?! Unf-ing beliveable!!

c) For me, Collins absolutely kills his short-term credibility when he finds a "teachable moment" for any number of players making, dumb minor mistakes, but gives Clayton an endless number of opportunities despite some really bad play. Regular dumb on-court decisions vs. the correct decision and repeatedly poor execution? The outcome is the same.

When you try to make examples of four of your ten reasonably-potential rotation guys, the problem is more than the players.

d) You just can't play West and Reid at the same time. I don't blame anyone who wants Reid in a more secondary role, but both of them at the same time makes a bad situation worse.

e) Collins is far too in love with his Charlie Hustle guys - Clayton (as I may have mentioned), Ciaravino and Mullins until a few games ago. All of them are generally the same, nice defense (nothing great), okay rebounding, take care of the ball, crappy outside shooting and not much other offense. You just can't play any of these two guys at the same time. Far too often, the scoring droughts have two of these guys in the lineup.

Admittedly, I have hope for better play from Ciaravino, but he needs to show that minimal production against Nebraska on a regular basis.

For me, CC is nowhere near a hot seat, but he hasn't helped this group this year. This is an all-around mess that goes WAY beyond as specific players or one or two on-court weaknesses.
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This is what's so worrisome about the year so far, even more than the record. The coaching makes no sense, unless there's a lot of damning information we don't know, which is even worse news! You're right, outside of Nick on offense, we can't find a single consistent positive from this season so far.
 
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Catdude

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The Windham thing is so strange. As far as we know, he’s not suspended or injured, so he is available to play and Collins is simply choosing not to play him. When asked about it, Collins keeps saying that he believes in Windham, that Windham did nothing wrong, and that it is purely a coaching decision to play other guys instead because they are practicing and/or playing better.

I really hope that is not the truthful answer and there is a more reasonable explanation. If Collins really thinks some of these other guys are better than Windham and that Windham should get ZERO minutes, then we have a big evaluation problem.
 
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ThatadultfromHolland

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If you want to complain about roster construction, I’m all for it. That’s a very fair critique. I don’t really agree with most of the rotation criticism though. I don’t think any realistic rotation tweaks would have materially changed the win loss results so far. At some point it’s probably worth deferring to a widely respected coach who sees these guys every day in practice and has a much better feel for what’s happening behind the scenes.

I’ll try to respond to OP in the order of the points you brought up.

I agree that Martinelli is the most consistent offensive player on this team. That’s really the one thing you can count on night to night. Defensively he’s meh. Not a plus, but also not the liability he was early in his career. He’s become serviceable and he’s not actively hurting you on that end. I would argue Mullins and Gelo are the two players who bring the most consistency defensively. I’d also add Reid in terms of running the offense. Despite a poor showing yesterday, he’s a big reason the turnover numbers have been relatively low this season. For how much the ball is in his hands, he doesn’t give it away much and he creates a lot of good looks for others. Whether those looks get converted is a separate issue.

Green’s shot not falling is a real problem, agreed. He was brought in to make shots, and that hasn’t happened consistently. His defense is subpar, but I do think his athleticism is a bit underrated compared to how he’s talked about on this board. Part of the struggle is adjusting to Big Ten play, and part of it is that nobody outside of Martinelli is really making shots from deep either. Shooting is contagious, both good and bad. It’s hard to justify heavy minutes for a guy when his primary skill isn’t producing.

Singleton is catching way too much flak. He’s a solid defender, a solid rebounder, and he handles the ball decently for his size. The main things he’s not doing are hitting threes and generating his own offense. It’s really hard to use his size as a mismatch when defenses don’t have to respect shooters, and the paint is constantly congested. He’s actually pretty smooth in the post, but that’s the most crowded area of the floor with this roster. Contrary to a lot of board opinion, I think Tre has been playing quite well for a freshman.

I’ve said this before, but Clayton playing heavy minutes lowers the ceiling of the team. That said, he hasn’t even logged ten minutes in each of the last two games. West has been taking those minutes, and it took some time for that to happen for a reason. West clearly has a higher ceiling, but he’s struggled defensively and made typical freshman mistakes offensively. As he’s limited those mistakes, he’s earned more time and passed Clayton in the rotation.

Mullins really struggles shooting threes and scoring in general. He drives at one speed, and defenses don’t respect his shot at all. That makes life harder for everyone else. Most of NU’s scorers want to operate inside, and when Mullins is on the floor his defender can sag and clog the paint. Gelo fills a similar role but offers slightly better shooting and has more years left.

With a young team where no one is clearly separating themselves, what else can you really do besides live with a lot of teachable moments? Most of these guys have much higher ceilings than what they’re showing right now. Clayton is probably the closest to his ceiling of anyone on the roster, and unfortunately he’s been better than several higher upside players early in the season. That’s not a good thing in the big picture.

You really can’t play Gelo and Mullins together. Green isn’t making shots consistently. West is starting to show some offensive promise, and Reid is your best option to run the offense. Defensively it’s not pretty, but you still have to find a way to score, and West is beginning to earn those minutes. There are already so many defensive holes that playing two offense first guards together isn’t suddenly the breaking point. Martinelli isn’t a strong defender. Page isn’t even average. Even your best lineups are still weak defensively, so at some point you try to outscore people. The issue is they’re struggling to do that too.

You also can’t complain about Mullins not getting enough minutes and then complain when he does get minutes.

The biggest problem in my opinion is roster construction. A lot of these guys have multiple years of eligibility left. Hopefully they’re learning a ton this season, hit the offseason hard, and take a real step forward next year. It was always going to be a rebuilding year, but that doesn’t make watching it any easier.
 
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Purple Pile Driver

Purple Pile Driver

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NUera said:
In this day and age, one can't help but think this is now a de facto redshirt year and "he gone."
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You mean a wasted year. No idea what’s going on, but to be fair, KJ has looked lost since the first game. I am betting he scores next year, wherever that be, but he exhibits no confidence at all this year. Give Fish a try.
 
Purple Pile Driver

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ThatadultfromHolland said:
If you want to complain about roster construction, I’m all for it. That’s a very fair critique. I don’t really agree with most of the rotation criticism though. I don’t think any realistic rotation tweaks would have materially changed the win loss results so far. At some point it’s probably worth deferring to a widely respected coach who sees these guys every day in practice and has a much better feel for what’s happening behind the scenes.

I’ll try to respond to OP in the order of the points you brought up.

I agree that Martinelli is the most consistent offensive player on this team. That’s really the one thing you can count on night to night. Defensively he’s meh. Not a plus, but also not the liability he was early in his career. He’s become serviceable and he’s not actively hurting you on that end. I would argue Mullins and Gelo are the two players who bring the most consistency defensively. I’d also add Reid in terms of running the offense. Despite a poor showing yesterday, he’s a big reason the turnover numbers have been relatively low this season. For how much the ball is in his hands, he doesn’t give it away much and he creates a lot of good looks for others. Whether those looks get converted is a separate issue.

Green’s shot not falling is a real problem, agreed. He was brought in to make shots, and that hasn’t happened consistently. His defense is subpar, but I do think his athleticism is a bit underrated compared to how he’s talked about on this board. Part of the struggle is adjusting to Big Ten play, and part of it is that nobody outside of Martinelli is really making shots from deep either. Shooting is contagious, both good and bad. It’s hard to justify heavy minutes for a guy when his primary skill isn’t producing.

Singleton is catching way too much flak. He’s a solid defender, a solid rebounder, and he handles the ball decently for his size. The main things he’s not doing are hitting threes and generating his own offense. It’s really hard to use his size as a mismatch when defenses don’t have to respect shooters, and the paint is constantly congested. He’s actually pretty smooth in the post, but that’s the most crowded area of the floor with this roster. Contrary to a lot of board opinion, I think Tre has been playing quite well for a freshman.

I’ve said this before, but Clayton playing heavy minutes lowers the ceiling of the team. That said, he hasn’t even logged ten minutes in each of the last two games. West has been taking those minutes, and it took some time for that to happen for a reason. West clearly has a higher ceiling, but he’s struggled defensively and made typical freshman mistakes offensively. As he’s limited those mistakes, he’s earned more time and passed Clayton in the rotation.

Mullins really struggles shooting threes and scoring in general. He drives at one speed, and defenses don’t respect his shot at all. That makes life harder for everyone else. Most of NU’s scorers want to operate inside, and when Mullins is on the floor his defender can sag and clog the paint. Gelo fills a similar role but offers slightly better shooting and has more years left.

With a young team where no one is clearly separating themselves, what else can you really do besides live with a lot of teachable moments? Most of these guys have much higher ceilings than what they’re showing right now. Clayton is probably the closest to his ceiling of anyone on the roster, and unfortunately he’s been better than several higher upside players early in the season. That’s not a good thing in the big picture.

You really can’t play Gelo and Mullins together. Green isn’t making shots consistently. West is starting to show some offensive promise, and Reid is your best option to run the offense. Defensively it’s not pretty, but you still have to find a way to score, and West is beginning to earn those minutes. There are already so many defensive holes that playing two offense first guards together isn’t suddenly the breaking point. Martinelli isn’t a strong defender. Page isn’t even average. Even your best lineups are still weak defensively, so at some point you try to outscore people. The issue is they’re struggling to do that too.

You also can’t complain about Mullins not getting enough minutes and then complain when he does get minutes.

The biggest problem in my opinion is roster construction. A lot of these guys have multiple years of eligibility left. Hopefully they’re learning a ton this season, hit the offseason hard, and take a real step forward next year. It was always going to be a rebuilding year, but that doesn’t make watching it any easier.
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Yep, I really don’t know how you change this rotation and suddenly produce wins. I’ve said this many times, but Gelo, Mullins, KJ and Clayton can throw the ball in the Ocean. You would expect one to get on a roll at some point. Green’s shoot looks good out of his hands but it rarely goes in.

Agree that the Tre criticism is way too harsh. He is sturdy and is starting to use his body way better. One of the few guys that I think is doing his job.
 
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Smolmania

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If Tre learns how to NOT use his hands playing defense this year (and getting the resultant touch fouls 25' from the basket :() then his first year at NU will have been a resounding success. He's big, strong, and pretty darn skilled for a guy his size. By the middle of next year he will be far and away our best big man, even if Page is still on the team.

I simply cannot fathom how KJ has fallen this far. At the end of last year, even playing the point once Leach got hurt, he was one of our top 3 players. Where did it go? National college hoops writers were picking him as one of the breakout stars for this season. . . what the heck happened?
 
CatManTrue

CatManTrue

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The coaches absolutely whiffed in the portal. This roster starts and ends with them.

Martinelli has played his heart out; but he is not surrounded by Big Ten talent and it shows.

Like many fans, I feel bad for Marty andlikind of wish he had transferred.
 
Purple Pile Driver

Purple Pile Driver

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CatManTrue said:
The coaches absolutely whiffed in the portal. This roster starts and ends with them.

Martinelli has played his heart out; but he is not surrounded by Big Ten talent and it shows.

Like many fans, I feel bad for Marty andlikind of wish he had transferred.
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Geezus, you wish our best player had transferred. WTF.
 
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Sec_112

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ThatadultfromHolland said:
1) I don’t really agree with most of the rotation criticism though. I don’t think any realistic rotation tweaks would have materially changed the win loss results so far.
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ThatadultfromHolland said:
2) Despite a poor showing yesterday, he’s a big reason the turnover numbers have been relatively low this season. For how much the ball is in his hands, he doesn’t give it away much and he creates a lot of good looks for others.

3) You also can’t complain about Mullins not getting enough minutes and then complain when he does get minutes.
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Just a few responses TAFH ...

1) I agree rotation tweaks would not have made much of a difference. But Collins is clearly trying to play some motivation and rotation games with at least three (if not four) fairly representative rotation players. The negative effect of that will go beyond wins and losses.

2) I'd argue Reid's really poor shot selection is similar to many turnovers - especially on a poor rebounding team. It may not show up in the stats as a TO, but there goes the opponent back down the court.

3) The complaint about Mullins is not whether he's a good player or mediocre one. It's a lesser-of-three evils discussion that his defense deserves more time - especially now that Clayton is often playing the 3 with Reid and West on the court at the same time.
 
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cedricmelons said:
I spoke with someone who personally knows the Windham family. He said that KJ sprained his ankle at the start of the season. He also said that KJ is planning on transferring.
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I would be shocked if KJ returned next season. I also have no problem with CCC not playing KJ if this is true. Not sure when it happened or how serious the ankle sprain was, but despite the KJ love on the board, he hasn’t looked right from game one. Give Gill a few minutes. Clayton seems like a great teammate but he doesn’t fit with a team that can’t score much.
 
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Catdude

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Between expired eligibility and transfers out, I can’t imagine we’ll return many players next season. We only have two incoming freshmen (one of whom just tore his ACL), so Collins is going to have to hit the portal hard to build a roster. The hopeful news is that so many programs have shown that immediate improvement is possible if you play the portal right. And that can mean the right guys, not necessarily the best guys, in building a “sum is greater than its parts” team.
 
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CappyNU

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Looking at some 3-man combos in our 12 P5 games, minimum 30 possessions on one side of the ball together:

With Mart at the 4 or 5, or without Mart playing
Players+/-Possessions (off/def)Notes
Reid-Clayton-GeloA slightly misleading -17 due to possession imbalance85/95Horrific 3-point shooting, but just 5 turnovers on offense; an endless layup line and good 3-point defense but horrendous rebounding on defense
Reid-Green-Gelo-270/71Excellent shooting, horrific defense
Reid-KJ-Gelo-1459/55Bad shooting and 14 turnovers, good rebounding and getting to the FT line on offense, Bad everything on defense
Reid-Green-Mullins-531/30Scoring at the rim and not turning it over on offense, automatic points on the 23 possessions where we didn't force a turnover
Reid-Clayton-Mullins-1038/39Same as Reid-Green-Mullins, except more midrange-focused on offense and 10 turnovers on defense with auto points on the remaining 29 possessions
Reid-KJ-GreenA misleading +2 due to possession imbalance36/23An unfathomable eFG% of 21% and 7% from 3 on offense, not terrible on defense aside from 44% rebounding allowed.

With Mart in the trio
Players+/-Possessions (off/def)Notes
Reid-Gelo-Mart-17311/315Pretty solid on offense - rebounding mediocre and ok 3-point shooting, defense is mediocre-to-bad aside from defending 3-point line well
Reid-Clayton-Mart-25134/142Too much reliance on midrange shots, mediocre rebounding and FT line, but very low turnovers on offense, free layups on defense when not being fouled.
Reid-Green-Mart+14125/115Really good on offense, but not great offensive rebounding, awful shooting percentages but forcing 24 turnovers while somewhat limiting rebounds on defense.
Reid-Mullins-Mart-20105/110Nonexistent offensive rebounding and weak layup shooting percentage, but otherwise decent on offense, abysmal rebound and foul rates with mediocre shooting percentages but forcing a decent amount of turnovers on defense.
West-Gelo-Mart+391/91Efficient on offense with good 3-point shooting, fewer turnovers forced (13), fewer rebounds allowed (35%) and shooting reverting closer to mean (27% from 3, 57% from 2).
Reid-KJ-Mart-2974/68Yeesh. Bad shooting, but decent rebounding and good FT rate on offense, defense is hide-your-eyes bad - eFG% of 72%, 36% rebounding allowed and a parade to the FT line
West-Clayton-Mart-567/68Poor shooting, no offensive rebounding but only 6 turnovers and getting to the FT line at a decent clip on offense, great shooting percentages but too much fouling, only 7 turnovers forced and 35% rebounding allowed on defense
West-Mullins-Mart-362/57Mediocre shooting, bad ball handling and no rebounding on offense, mediocre shooting, 11 turnovers forced, bad rebounding and too much fouling on defense.
Reid-West-Mart+960/56Our best offensive trio - excellent across the board on offense, allowing too many 3s, not enough turnovers forced and too many rebounds allowed on defense.
West-Green-Mart+1148/42Efficient on offense despite poor 3-point shooting and rarely getting to the FT line, 12 turnovers forced and 18% 3-point shooting, but 50% rebounding allowed and 68% shooting on 2s on defense.
West-KJ-Mart-536/32Bad shooting, good ball control, poor rebounding but gets to the FT line on offense, Bad shooting, not enough turnovers forced, abysmal rebounding but no fouling on defense.
 
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ThatadultfromHolland

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Sec_112 said:
Just a few responses TAFH ...

1) I agree rotation tweaks would not have made much of a difference. But Collins is clearly trying to play some motivation and rotation games with at least three (if not four) fairly representative rotation players. The negative effect of that will go beyond wins and losses.

2) I'd argue Reid's really poor shot selection is similar to many turnovers - especially on a poor rebounding team. It may not show up in the stats as a TO, but there goes the opponent back down the court.

3) The complaint about Mullins is not whether he's a good player or mediocre one. It's a lesser-of-three evils discussion that his defense deserves more time - especially now that Clayton is often playing the 3 with Reid and West on the court at the same time.
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1.) impossible to tell unless you have behind the scenes information.

2.) I’d argue his shot selection isn’t that bad and he’s missing a lot of shots he should hit specifically around the rim. Also given the quality of the rest the offense around him someone has to get a shot off.

3.) You complained about him not playing enough then in point 3b. Then complained Collins fell in love with the Charlie hustle guys (including Mullins in this description) in point 3e. Take a look at my 3rd to last paragraph and Cappys stats below on lineups that supports that take.

I just am not aligned with the take that these rotation choices are terrible or that Collins needs to drastically change them. The team just flat out isn’t very good this year.
 
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hdhntr1

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Sec_112 said:
Just a few responses TAFH ...

1) I agree rotation tweaks would not have made much of a difference. But Collins is clearly trying to play some motivation and rotation games with at least three (if not four) fairly representative rotation players. The negative effect of that will go beyond wins and losses.

2) I'd argue Reid's really poor shot selection is similar to many turnovers - especially on a poor rebounding team. It may not show up in the stats as a TO, but there goes the opponent back down the court.

3) The complaint about Mullins is not whether he's a good player or mediocre one. It's a lesser-of-three evils discussion that his defense deserves more time - especially now that Clayton is often playing the 3 with Reid and West on the court at the same time.
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Anybody notice that the other night against NEB Rebounding was pretty descent?
 
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macarthur31

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hdhntr1 said:
Anybody notice that the other night against NEB Rebounding was pretty descent?
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We held them to 22.2% OReb, which on its face is really good - nat'l average is 31.0% OReb. However, we allowed 42.3% from 3FG, and 59.3% on 2FG, so there really weren't any ORebs for them to grab. All in all, NEB scored 1.28 PPP - it's so hard to win when the opponent is that kind of efficient.

We grabbed 29% of our misses, which is about our season average. Nick grabbed 5 misses, but a few of those were on one play alone where he was playing patticake with the backboard. I certainly appreciate his high motor - but, again, as we noted above, 29% is just average.
 
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hdhntr1

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macarthur31 said:
We held them to 22.2% OReb, which on its face is really good - nat'l average is 31.0% OReb. However, we allowed 42.3% from 3FG, and 59.3% on 2FG, so there really weren't any ORebs for them to grab. All in all, NEB scored 1.28 PPP - it's so hard to win when the opponent is that kind of efficient.

We grabbed 29% of our misses, which is about our season average. Nick grabbed 5 misses, but a few of those were on one play alone where he was playing patticake with the backboard. I certainly appreciate his high motor - but, again, as we noted above, 29% is just average.
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Tips don't count unless they go in. I was thinking he had gotten credit for two on that series, I have not watched to verify so if I am incorrect, so be it.
 
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SouthportCat

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One thing I would argue is lost in this discussion is we are a couple bad plays/bad breaks/inability to hit open dagger shots from being something like 3-5 in the BIG. We had Virginia beaten (in Nick’s worst game of the season so far), and lost a toss up to Butler.

The results are obviously disappointing and hard to watch at times, but I don’t think it is valid to say we whiffed in the portal. Reid and Page are very obviously major conference talents. Not perfect or complete, but then if they were they’d be starting for Arizona instead of NU. I think Green (assuming he stays a ‘Cat) has a higher ceiling than Langborg because of his size and athleticism.

Excepting Nick and KJ, all our returning minutes were glue guys/role players and if KJ looked at his situation and decided he’d rather play elsewhere that at least explains his playing time. It was a hell of an ask for a defense-first culture to ask 7-8 first years or transfers to integrate to our system when all of them appear to be offense-first players.

I don’t know how anyone can watch Gelo this year and be anything but pleased. He has made huge gains in literally every aspect of the game. The open threes haven’t fallen, but I expect he will take about 100,000 of them over the summer and next year be ready for an all-BIG type year. He is arguably our most important cog along with Singleton for the next two seasons to get back to NCAA appearances.
 
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TheC

TheC

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macarthur31 said:
We held them to 22.2% OReb, which on its face is really good - nat'l average is 31.0% OReb. However, we allowed 42.3% from 3FG, and 59.3% on 2FG, so there really weren't any ORebs for them to grab. All in all, NEB scored 1.28 PPP - it's so hard to win when the opponent is that kind of efficient.

We grabbed 29% of our misses, which is about our season average. Nick grabbed 5 misses, but a few of those were on one play alone where he was playing patticake with the backboard. I certainly appreciate his high motor - but, again, as we noted above, 29% is just average.
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Yep... I commented in the game thread that we actually were rebounding well on the defensive end. The biggest difference was that Nebraska was hitting shots and we simply weren't.
 
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TheC

TheC

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
19,214
1,300
62
SouthportCat said:
One thing I would argue is lost in this discussion is we are a couple bad plays/bad breaks/inability to hit open dagger shots from being something like 3-5 in the BIG. We had Virginia beaten (in Nick’s worst game of the season so far), and lost a toss up to Butler.

The results are obviously disappointing and hard to watch at times, but I don’t think it is valid to say we whiffed in the portal. Reid and Page are very obviously major conference talents. Not perfect or complete, but then if they were they’d be starting for Arizona instead of NU. I think Green (assuming he stays a ‘Cat) has a higher ceiling than Langborg because of his size and athleticism.

Excepting Nick and KJ, all our returning minutes were glue guys/role players and if KJ looked at his situation and decided he’d rather play elsewhere that at least explains his playing time. It was a hell of an ask for a defense-first culture to ask 7-8 first years or transfers to integrate to our system when all of them appear to be offense-first players.

I don’t know how anyone can watch Gelo this year and be anything but pleased. He has made huge gains in literally every aspect of the game. The open threes haven’t fallen, but I expect he will take about 100,000 of them over the summer and next year be ready for an all-BIG type year. He is arguably our most important cog along with Singleton for the next two seasons to get back to NCAA appearances.
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I don't believe that winning or losing close games is random. It hasn't just been bad luck that we lost all those games. There is a mental toughness that guys have to have to keep playing well as the game tightens. There has to be a plan and excellent execution down the stretch. I'm a fan of CCC, but his teams have generally been bad at this except when they had an upperclassman version of Boo Buie who thrived in those moments. I think Nick has the mental toughness, but he just doesn't have the playmaking abilities to go create a shot for himself in crunch time without his teammates.
 
C

CappyNU

Senior
Mar 2, 2004
5,260
519
113
TheC said:
I don't believe that winning or losing close games is random. It hasn't just been bad luck that we lost all those games. There is a mental toughness that guys have to have to keep playing well as the game tightens. There has to be a plan and excellent execution down the stretch. I'm a fan of CCC, but his teams have generally been bad at this except when they had an upperclassman version of Boo Buie who thrived in those moments. I think Nick has the mental toughness, but he just doesn't have the playmaking abilities to go create a shot for himself in crunch time without his teammates.
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It is interesting how since the first dance, every year we've had a bad team, our underlying metrics look way better than our overall record, hence the "Luck" stat at Kenpom.

SeasonKenPom rank (Pre/Post)RecordSOSRoster Experience/ContinuityLuckSenior leaders
2013-1486/13414-19121.96/43.2%101/351Crawford
2014-1579/12215-17561.66/56.7%161/351Cobb, Sobo
2015-1671/6820-121002.09/67.4%178/351Olah, Demps
2016-1761/3824-12461.93/54.7%135/351Lumpkin, Taphorn
2017-1818/8515-17432.33/71.5%326/351BMac, Lindsey, Skelly
2018-1957/7413-19412.52/48.4%348/353Law, Pardon, Taylor
2019-2086/1328-23111.03/31.7%334/353Spencer, Turner
2020-21* COVID season70/799-1521.72/64.7%321/347Gaines
2021-2248/8715-16511.89/68.3%331/358Nance, Greer
2022-2370/3822-12312.46/53.5%117/363Boo, Audige, Beran
2023-2440/4122-12372.51/52.3%148/362Boo, Langborg, Berry, Big Matt
2024-2551/4417-16362.23/51.3%350/364Barnhizer, Leach, Berry, Big Matt
2025-2657/708-10331.63/35.3%365/365Mart, Mullins

We know what went wrong in 2017-18. 2018-19 was a mix of no PG post-BMac (Jordan Lathon disaster), poor transfers (Turner, Taylor), injuries (Falzon, Ash), and overreliance on frosh (Kopp, Nance, Greer). Last year the experience/continuity numbers would've been way higher and we would've likely made the tourney but BB and Leach injuries tanked the season.

It's clear though that, as some of you have noticed, we do our best when we have a veteran roster with strong personalities as senior leaders while retaining a majority of the minutes from the previous season. This year is...neither of those things.
 
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H

Hungry Jack

All-Conference
Nov 17, 2008
37,486
2,979
67
I blame Collins for much of this. The transfers are his. They are not fitting our model, and the coaches have not been able to get consistent production from them. The team is a mess.
 
Last edited:
S

SDakaGordie

Junior
Dec 29, 2016
2,503
239
53
Hungry Jack said:
I blame Collins for much of this. The transfers are his. They are not fitting our model, and the coaches have not been able to get consistent production from them. The team is a mess.
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You think you know “our model” better than Collins? And I remember when our BB teams were a mess. Even with no wins to-date, we are far from a mess.
 
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AdamOnFirst

AdamOnFirst

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
10,068
1,664
113
CappyNU said:
Looking at some 3-man combos in our 12 P5 games, minimum 30 possessions on one side of the ball together:

With Mart at the 4 or 5, or without Mart playing
Players+/-Possessions (off/def)Notes
Reid-Clayton-GeloA slightly misleading -17 due to possession imbalance85/95Horrific 3-point shooting, but just 5 turnovers on offense; an endless layup line and good 3-point defense but horrendous rebounding on defense
Reid-Green-Gelo-270/71Excellent shooting, horrific defense
Reid-KJ-Gelo-1459/55Bad shooting and 14 turnovers, good rebounding and getting to the FT line on offense, Bad everything on defense
Reid-Green-Mullins-531/30Scoring at the rim and not turning it over on offense, automatic points on the 23 possessions where we didn't force a turnover
Reid-Clayton-Mullins-1038/39Same as Reid-Green-Mullins, except more midrange-focused on offense and 10 turnovers on defense with auto points on the remaining 29 possessions
Reid-KJ-GreenA misleading +2 due to possession imbalance36/23An unfathomable eFG% of 21% and 7% from 3 on offense, not terrible on defense aside from 44% rebounding allowed.

With Mart in the trio
Players+/-Possessions (off/def)Notes
Reid-Gelo-Mart-17311/315Pretty solid on offense - rebounding mediocre and ok 3-point shooting, defense is mediocre-to-bad aside from defending 3-point line well
Reid-Clayton-Mart-25134/142Too much reliance on midrange shots, mediocre rebounding and FT line, but very low turnovers on offense, free layups on defense when not being fouled.
Reid-Green-Mart+14125/115Really good on offense, but not great offensive rebounding, awful shooting percentages but forcing 24 turnovers while somewhat limiting rebounds on defense.
Reid-Mullins-Mart-20105/110Nonexistent offensive rebounding and weak layup shooting percentage, but otherwise decent on offense, abysmal rebound and foul rates with mediocre shooting percentages but forcing a decent amount of turnovers on defense.
West-Gelo-Mart+391/91Efficient on offense with good 3-point shooting, fewer turnovers forced (13), fewer rebounds allowed (35%) and shooting reverting closer to mean (27% from 3, 57% from 2).
Reid-KJ-Mart-2974/68Yeesh. Bad shooting, but decent rebounding and good FT rate on offense, defense is hide-your-eyes bad - eFG% of 72%, 36% rebounding allowed and a parade to the FT line
West-Clayton-Mart-567/68Poor shooting, no offensive rebounding but only 6 turnovers and getting to the FT line at a decent clip on offense, great shooting percentages but too much fouling, only 7 turnovers forced and 35% rebounding allowed on defense
West-Mullins-Mart-362/57Mediocre shooting, bad ball handling and no rebounding on offense, mediocre shooting, 11 turnovers forced, bad rebounding and too much fouling on defense.
Reid-West-Mart+960/56Our best offensive trio - excellent across the board on offense, allowing too many 3s, not enough turnovers forced and too many rebounds allowed on defense.
West-Green-Mart+1148/42Efficient on offense despite poor 3-point shooting and rarely getting to the FT line, 12 turnovers forced and 18% 3-point shooting, but 50% rebounding allowed and 68% shooting on 2s on defense.
West-KJ-Mart-536/32Bad shooting, good ball control, poor rebounding but gets to the FT line on offense, Bad shooting, not enough turnovers forced, abysmal rebounding but no fouling on defense.
Click to expand...
So what I'm seeing is despite Green shooting poorly we should honestly see a lot of Reid/West-Green-Mullins-Mart on the floor and can sometimes sub off Green and have both Reid and West on the floor or even go small and just have all five.
 
S

SDakaGordie

Junior
Dec 29, 2016
2,503
239
53
Catmandoo78 said:
I mean, let’s be honest. We aren’t that far from a mess.
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It depends how you want to characterize a mess. If we were consistently getting blown out, I would say we would be an unequivocal mess. Since we are not, I am not there. And in our more recent bad years where we won 3 or 4 games in the BIG, we still were very competitive and some could see a better future. I think we are in a pretty similar place now.
 
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C

Catmandoo78

Sophomore
Nov 12, 2025
293
166
43
SDakaGordie said:
It depends how you want to characterize a mess. If we were consistently getting blown out, I would say we would be an unequivocal mess. Since we are not, I am not there. And in our more recent bad years where we won 3 or 4 games in the BIG, we still were very competitive and some could see a better future. I think we are in a pretty similar place now.
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In January, we have lost every game by double digits except for Rutgers, who is one of the very worst teams in P4 basketball.
 
C

Catdude

Redshirt
Aug 27, 2001
1,011
43
48
CappyNU said:
It is interesting how since the first dance, every year we've had a bad team, our underlying metrics look way better than our overall record, hence the "Luck" stat at Kenpom.

SeasonKenPom rank (Pre/Post)RecordSOSRoster Experience/ContinuityLuckSenior leaders
2013-1486/13414-19121.96/43.2%101/351Crawford
2014-1579/12215-17561.66/56.7%161/351Cobb, Sobo
2015-1671/6820-121002.09/67.4%178/351Olah, Demps
2016-1761/3824-12461.93/54.7%135/351Lumpkin, Taphorn
2017-1818/8515-17432.33/71.5%326/351BMac, Lindsey, Skelly
2018-1957/7413-19412.52/48.4%348/353Law, Pardon, Taylor
2019-2086/1328-23111.03/31.7%334/353Spencer, Turner
2020-21* COVID season70/799-1521.72/64.7%321/347Gaines
2021-2248/8715-16511.89/68.3%331/358Nance, Greer
2022-2370/3822-12312.46/53.5%117/363Boo, Audige, Beran
2023-2440/4122-12372.51/52.3%148/362Boo, Langborg, Berry, Big Matt
2024-2551/4417-16362.23/51.3%350/364Barnhizer, Leach, Berry, Big Matt
2025-2657/708-10331.63/35.3%365/365Mart, Mullins

We know what went wrong in 2017-18. 2018-19 was a mix of no PG post-BMac (Jordan Lathon disaster), poor transfers (Turner, Taylor), injuries (Falzon, Ash), and overreliance on frosh (Kopp, Nance, Greer). Last year the experience/continuity numbers would've been way higher and we would've likely made the tourney but BB and Leach injuries tanked the season.

It's clear though that, as some of you have noticed, we do our best when we have a veteran roster with strong personalities as senior leaders while retaining a majority of the minutes from the previous season. This year is...neither of those things.
Click to expand...
That is very interesting. I wonder if we are dead last in aggregate “luck” by a comfortable margin over the past 10 years. We were in the bottom 10% seven times and bottom 5% four times!! That is being so incredibly bad so often in close games.

That is a large enough sample size to attribute some (most?) blame to coaching. The poor performance in close games is just too regular within and between seasons to be blamed on bad luck or tough breaks.

It feels like we could have made two or three more tourneys by being simply average rather than terrible in close games.
 
S

SouthportCat

Sophomore
Mar 8, 2006
375
178
37
Catdude said:
That is very interesting. I wonder if we are dead last in aggregate “luck” by a comfortable margin over the past 10 years. We were in the bottom 10% seven times and bottom 5% four times!! That is being so incredibly bad so often in close games.

That is a large enough sample size to attribute some (most?) blame to coaching. The poor performance in close games is just too regular within and between seasons to be blamed on bad luck or tough breaks.

It feels like we could have made two or three more tourneys by being simply average rather than terrible in close games.
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If a wide open corner three bricks out (your table is ready, Mr. Clayton), is that coaching though? Our game plans are putting us in a position to win… at some point you play BIG hoops you need to make a shot.
 
Purple Pile Driver

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,614
2,956
113
SouthportCat said:
If a wide open corner three bricks out (your table is ready, Mr. Clayton), is that coaching though? Our game plans are putting us in a position to win… at some point you play BIG hoops you need to make a shot.
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Every time we lose it’s Coaching. The nature of message boards. Even average shooting gives this team 2-3 more wins and that’s about what they are.
 
H

Hungry Jack

All-Conference
Nov 17, 2008
37,486
2,979
67
SDakaGordie said:
You think you know “our model” better than Collins? And I remember when our BB teams were a mess. Even with no wins to-date, we are far from a mess.
Click to expand...
I guess all it took was me posting that.

The issue is relying so heavily on transfers whose skill sets aren’t well suited for our style. We won last night with Kropp getting 28 minutes, and West 34 at the expense of Reid and Page.
 
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