* Ya did.
# Maybe since it’s not a weather board.
+ Because like the first part on the topic of weather, it’s about you. Always has been. About 8x in this post alone.
#Bazinga
OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
# Maybe since it’s not a weather board.
+ Because like the first part on the topic of weather, it’s about you. Always has been. About 8x in this post alone.
#Bazinga
Nope, did not. And if it was about me wanting attention or whatever, I'd just start weather threads for every little thing, but I don't out of respect for trying to not clutter up the board - and in fact on TOS I was asked to keep things all in one thread for the season and add in events with title changes to keep the board from being cluttered and it has worked out well. Also, if I wanted attention, I could make that other board of ours go bonkers, but I don't - I just don't have any desire to deal with that kind of crap in my life anymore. Lastly, if I wanted attention why would I be thinking about not posting here anymore? Your logic is flawed on this.* Ya did.
# Maybe since it’s not a weather board.
+ Because like the first part on the topic of weather, it’s about you. Always has been. About 8x in this post alone.
#Bazinga
Edit: note that there is no "forecast" prediction yet as it's still way too early for that as it's still possible we could only get an inch or two, despite no models showing less than 3-5" for CNJ right now (suppression is a risk, like it is whenever there's a strong, cold high in place).
Back to the weather. Tonight's 0Z models trended a bit snowier for Sunday, generally, although the AIFS backed off its monster solutions from the last several runs; it's interesting to note that now no models show less than 3-5" for CNJ, when for the last model suite a couple of models were only showing 1-3" (so maybe greater floor but lower ceiling).
Still too early for model maps, IMO, but will give a brief summary of model outcomes instead, focused on CNJ. Generally speaking, there will likely be a few less inches N of 78 and a few more S of 276/195 (since too cold for rain to the south). Also, note that with it being quite cold in all the models (teens to low 20s), snow to liquid ratios are likely to be elevated to perhaps 15:1 meaning 10" of 10:1 snow (snow to liquid ratio) would be 15" of snow at 15:1 (same mass/50% more depth). Only including 10::1 ratio numbers below.
Also, in the bigger picture this is really looking like a major snow and sleet storm for much of the mid-south and a major ice storm south of the snow/sleet, perhaps from Texas to NC. There's now an AmericanWx thread on this and the NWS is highlighting the Sunday snow potential in its discussion, below. Long way to go still, so much can change.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62527-possible-record-breaking-cold-snow-125-126/page/5/
- The Euro shows an unusual solution with snow starting from the overrunning system approaching from the west, on Sunday, but transitions to a coastal on Monday into Tuesday, giving a 48 hour event. It shows 10-12" for CNJ (15-18" Kuchera ratios); was 3-6" in its previous run.
- The Euro AIFS shows about 5-7" for CNJ from Sunday morning through early Monday (earlier runs were a foot+).
- The GFS shows 3-5" for CNJ on Sunday (last run was 1-3" and two runs ago was nada).
- The CMC shows 8-12" for CNJ from Sunday morning through Monday morning (last run was 7-10" and two runs ago was only 1-3")
- The UK shows 9-11" for CNJ from Sunday morning through Monday morning (last run was 9-13")
- The NBM (model blend) shows 7-9" for CNJ from Sunday morning through Monday morning (last run was 6-8").
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
230 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026
KEY MESSAGE 3...There is an increasing potential for the area to be
affected by an impactful winter storm late Saturday through Sunday,
however quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast details still
remains.
Signals in the upper level pattern by late week and the weekend
becomes quite active between the northern and southern stream jets.
The key elements embedded in these features are currently located
over the Arctic and the Pacific Ocean, so it`ll likely take at least
a couple more days for guidance to have a good handle on this
system. However, almost all available guidance depicts an area of
low pressure developing near Texas Friday before tracking eastward
along the Gulf coast into Saturday. Beyond Saturday there still
remains forecast uncertainty regarding the details of how this
system will play out for the east coast. However, at this time most
forecast guidance tracks the low north and east towards the North
Carolina coast and then off to the north and east from here by the
Sunday into Monday time frame. This track puts the mid Atlantic
region on the northern side of the system with the main question
then becoming just how close to us does the low track. There will be
a very strong and broad arctic high to our north and some of our
prior guidance had suggested this may be strong enough to
suppress the system just south of the area. But over the past
12 to 24 hours there`s been a general trend northward in
guidance suggesting the precipitation shield will make it into
our area. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM now show a
60-70% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 40-60% chance of 6+
inches of snow for areas roughly along and south of the I-95
corridor with decreasing probabilities farther north. These
probabilities are higher than with the prior forecast cycle. So
while this system still is about 5 days out, the signal for a
winter storm to impact at least parts of the area is higher than
usual. The timing of this would be as early as very late day
Saturday continuing through Sunday and potentially even
lingering into Monday depending on the system`s speed. We will
stress though that even with this trend in the guidance, most
east coast snowstorms typically drop their heaviest snows in
swaths 50 to 100 miles wide or less. And considering that the
pieces of energy that will drive this storm are still thousands
of miles away, that means it`s much too early to have much
confidence on how much snow will fall at any given location.
Users should keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming
days.
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It’s wild that this past weekend I thought we’d get a dusting and we got plowable snow…. This coming weekend I’m preparing for the worst and we’ll get a dusting haha. Keep up the good work guys, I enjoy these threads.
Keep doing what you're doing. When I was still teaching in Jersey many moons ago, I was glued to the computer waiting for you're take on the " big one" that would keep me home for a couple of days. My wife would keep asking " what does numbers say?" I loved it then and love it now. Kudos #!!
Good example of trolling that should just be ignored!* Ya did.
# Maybe since it’s not a weather board.
+ Because like the first part on the topic of weather, it’s about you. Always has been. About 8x in this post alone.
#Bazinga
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The hype is already beginning like crazy for this weekend. My coworker just came in and said they are predicting 12” up near him. He lives in north jersey. Not sure where these people are getting their information from.
I remember last year we had a potential storm like this 7 days out. I think we ended up with nothing
I remember last year we had a potential storm like this 7 days out. I think we ended up with nothing
I randomly pulled up Sparta NJ on the weather app and it says 8-10 right now. He’s not off by much.
You're partly right. It was the 2/20/25 thread and I started it 4.5 days in advance of the event when it looked like at least a 3-6/4-8" event with a few models showing 12"+. And then suppression set in and pushed all the moisture south of us and within 36 hours the threat was dead and we essentially whiffed with CNJ getting <1". One of the worst modeling failures of the past 5-10 years. It happens, but rarely that bad. I think anyone "predicting" 12" right now is nuts, but it's fair to say that 12" is possible, but so is only a couple of inches, while a complete whiff seems very unlikely with no models showing less than 3-5" right now, but a whiff can't be ruled out as we're still almost 5 days out.
This is a great graphic from NOAA showing the big picture snow/ice risks from this system from the SW to the NE US. Also, last night and this morning the Euro and Euro AIFS are now showing the system "phasing" the northern and southern stream systems, so that we go from an overrunning moisture into a cold dome situation (from the southern system) to an overrunning start transitioning to a phased coastal low that hits the OBX and heads up the coast towards us. If that verifies, our snow goes from significant (4-8") to at least major (8-14"). If, since other models aren't showing that, but the two best models are. Something to keep an eye on.
One more thing: it's going to be brutally cold from Friday night through Tuesday morning with temps likely not getting above 20F during that period and with overnight lows in the single digits. And Thursday's low 40s is likely the last day above 35F for the next 10 days.
Thanks for what you do and for everyone else who weighs in here. I'm particularly interested and watching that last of the month potential as we leave for the south on Jan 31st and might even have to move the "Get out of Dodge date sooner" if it materializes.
I keep reading about people fearing suppression with this storm on AmericanWx. People are saying it’s gonna be too cold.
I saw the AIGFS showed a complete miss for the top half of the state
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That is correct, but it's a major outlier and far less reliable so far (the AI version of the GFS was just deployed a few months ago) than the Euro AIFS or even the non-AI Euro, CMC and UK. Maybe it'll get better (and it did do well on 1/18, but not so well on the Dec storms), but for now it's a significant outlier and is largely being dismissed by the pros.
Thanks! And yes, you should keep an eye on that period if you have flexibility to move your departure date, as occasional model runs show snow in the 1/30-2/3 timeframe (hard to pin down more than tnat, but the pattern is still conducive to snow then).
Thanks, much appreciated! Are you in Florida now (username)? My dad and sister live in Vero - was going to drive down to visit soon (I go there 2-3x a year with some of them by car, so I can stop and play disc golf at cool courses along the ride), but am going to wait for this period to be over as I don't want to miss any good snows, lol.
Quick post-mortem on the Saturday and Sunday forecasts and snowfalls around here.
Basically, the models did a lousy job in the 2+ days out timeframe with little consistency and most being wrong, showing maybe 1-2" N of 78 on Saturday and nada south of there and showing maybe 1-2" for the coast and towards 95 on Sunday, with very little NW of 95. The forecasts prior to 2 days out were similarly underdone for most compared to what occurred.
Fortunately, the models did finally move toward what we saw and the NWS forecasts (and other forecasts) about 18 hours before the start of each event (see the two NWS forecasts below) were generally pretty good relative to what actually occurred, as shown in the two snowfall maps below, with a few exceptions.
First, on Saturday, the forecast for 2-4"N of 78 and well NW of 95 and S of 78 did well, but the snow from the clipper ended up being 1-3" for most of the 95 corridor, which has been predicted to get <1" - more cold air moved in with the precip along 95 keeping it as accumulating snow instead of white rain or a mix. Second, the forecast was for 2-4/3-5" for NENJ, NYC, LI and the Hudson Valley, but those areas generally only got 1-3" (due to less precip falling vs. what was expected). The other modest miss was on Sunday where the NWS forecast was for 1-3" for far NWNJ, the Poconos and most of EPA while the outcome was 3-5" for most of that area - most of the models were showing less precip due to being further from the coastal low.
FYI, we got 2.2" on Saturday and 1.7/2.4" in rounds 1/2 on Sunday for 4.1" total and 6.3" for the weekend. Up to 17.5" for the season.
Basically, the models did a lousy job in the 2+ days out timeframe with little consistency and most being wrong, showing maybe 1-2" N of 78 on Saturday and nada south of there and showing maybe 1-2" for the coast and towards 95 on Sunday, with very little NW of 95. The forecasts prior to 2 days out were similarly underdone for most compared to what occurred.
Fortunately, the models did finally move toward what we saw and the NWS forecasts (and other forecasts) about 18 hours before the start of each event (see the two NWS forecasts below) were generally pretty good relative to what actually occurred, as shown in the two snowfall maps below, with a few exceptions.
First, on Saturday, the forecast for 2-4"N of 78 and well NW of 95 and S of 78 did well, but the snow from the clipper ended up being 1-3" for most of the 95 corridor, which has been predicted to get <1" - more cold air moved in with the precip along 95 keeping it as accumulating snow instead of white rain or a mix. Second, the forecast was for 2-4/3-5" for NENJ, NYC, LI and the Hudson Valley, but those areas generally only got 1-3" (due to less precip falling vs. what was expected). The other modest miss was on Sunday where the NWS forecast was for 1-3" for far NWNJ, the Poconos and most of EPA while the outcome was 3-5" for most of that area - most of the models were showing less precip due to being further from the coastal low.
FYI, we got 2.2" on Saturday and 1.7/2.4" in rounds 1/2 on Sunday for 4.1" total and 6.3" for the weekend. Up to 17.5" for the season.
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Update from the 12Z models (they run 4x/day, but I think reporting on them 2x/day is fine, especially since the data inputs to the 6Z and 18Z runs are less robust than for 0Z and 12Z). Bottom line is confidence is increasing in at least a significant (4-8" at 10:1 ratio) snowfall for the Philly-NJ-NYC area and there is a growing potential for a major snowfall (8-14") or even more, given some of the models are showing increased snowfall, while others see decreases and also because we're now 12 hours closer and we're seeing pretty good model consistency. But we're still almost 5 days out from the start of the event (precip starting before sunrise on Sunday and the 12Z models initialized with 7 am EST data) and there are 2 models (GFS and AIGFS, which share data input/assimilation algorithms, which most consider inferior to the international models) showing very little snow for us, which has to give one pause, at least in forecasting actual snowfall amounts.
Model output for the general CNJ area (78 down to 276/195 in PA/NJ/NY and including NENJ/NYC along/near 95, which usually "behaves" like CNJ) is included below and keep in mind that snowfall looks to be a few inches more south of 276/195 and a few inches less N of 78 in PA/NJ; all of the models show precip starting around sunrise Sunday, but some end it before sunrise on Monday, while others are 2-parters and end it on Monday afternoon. Decided to include both 10:1 snow to liquid ratios and 15:1 ratios as a somewhat conservative upside, since the Kuchera ratios, are 17-18:1 on most of the models right now; also remember the snow mass is the same regardless of ratio as only the depth/density change. IMO, this is way easier than posting 12 maps, especially this far out.
- The Euro shows 7-10" for CNJ at a 10:1 ratio and 10-15" at a 15:1 ratio for CNJ from Sunday am through Monday noon and the 0Z run was 10-12". Also note that the 2-part solution from last night is muted with most of the snow by Sunday night.
- The Euro AIFS shows 5-8" at a 10:1 ratio and 8-12" (15:1 ratio) for CNJ from Sunday morning thru early Monday and the 0Z run was 5-7."
- The GFS shows nada for CNJ with the 1" line as far south as Cape May; 0Z run was 3-5"; AIGFS shows the 1" line from Wilmington to LBI.
- The CMC shows 7-11" at a 10:1 ratio and 10-16" at a 15:1 ratio for CNJ from Sunday am through Monday noon and the 0Z run was 8-12"
- The UK shows 9-12" at a 10:1 ratio and 13-18" at a 15:1 ratio for CNJ from Sunday morning thru Monday am and the 0Z run was 9-11".
- The ICON shows 8-10" at a 10:1 ratio and 12-15" at a 15:1 ratio for CNJ from Sunday morning thru Monday am; the 0Z run was only 1-2".
- The NBM (model blend) shows 8-12" at 10:1 and 12-18" at 15:1 ratios for CNJ from Sunday am thru Monday pm; the 0Z run was 7-9".
Sorry I don't have a masters in nothing but people like me make sure the roads are clear for people like you. I bet I make more money overnite than you made in a week.
Why are you posting amounts? You you you......are a first class weenie
Not looking good if you want snow
.KEY MESSAGE 4...
There continues to be a lot of uncertainty with the track of low
pressure developing along the east coast Sunday and passing to the
south and east Sunday night into Monday. Recent trends in the both
the dynamical and AI models are clearly trending toward a more
southward suppression of the storm track. The GFS in particular is
the most suppressed, keeping the area dry. Even the Canadian which
is still fairly wet, has shown a trend in the highest QPF axis to
shift south. The latest long term NBM (13Z) has come up with chances
of snow, but based on trends in the 12Z guidance wanted to keep
chance PoPs no higher than 50 percent. NBM probabilities for snow
amounts of 6 inches or more Sunday into Monday rage from 40 percent
inland, to around 60 percent across Long Island and southern
portions of the NYC metro. The main reason for the differences in
the guidance are likely due to the amount of interaction between the
southern and northern branches of the polar jet. The 12Z guidance is
showing less phasing with the GFS leaving much of the energy behind
across northern Mexico.
Bottom line, we are not out of the woods yet on an accumulating
snowfall event for the region on Sunday, but the next 24-48h will be
critical to see if models find some continuity and lock on better to
a solution.
.KEY MESSAGE 4...
There continues to be a lot of uncertainty with the track of low
pressure developing along the east coast Sunday and passing to the
south and east Sunday night into Monday. Recent trends in the both
the dynamical and AI models are clearly trending toward a more
southward suppression of the storm track. The GFS in particular is
the most suppressed, keeping the area dry. Even the Canadian which
is still fairly wet, has shown a trend in the highest QPF axis to
shift south. The latest long term NBM (13Z) has come up with chances
of snow, but based on trends in the 12Z guidance wanted to keep
chance PoPs no higher than 50 percent. NBM probabilities for snow
amounts of 6 inches or more Sunday into Monday rage from 40 percent
inland, to around 60 percent across Long Island and southern
portions of the NYC metro. The main reason for the differences in
the guidance are likely due to the amount of interaction between the
southern and northern branches of the polar jet. The 12Z guidance is
showing less phasing with the GFS leaving much of the energy behind
across northern Mexico.
Bottom line, we are not out of the woods yet on an accumulating
snowfall event for the region on Sunday, but the next 24-48h will be
critical to see if models find some continuity and lock on better to
a solution.
I understand why they wrote that, but I think they've put too much stock in the GFS and AIGFS, especially now, as they wrote that before the 18Z GFS, the worst model usually (and was very bad this past weekend), and the AIGFS, an untested model with inconsistent performance so far, came out much snowier. I've been somewhat discounting those vs. the pretty snowy Euro, AIFS, CMC and UK, as have many pros on-line (and TWC who are already calling for 8-12" for CNJ/NNJ/NYC/EPA) and this approach is looking reasonable now that both the GFS and AIGFS are much snowier. The 18Z GFS is now showing 3-5" (4-8" at 15:1 ratios) for CNJ on Sunday vs. nada at 12Z and the 18Z AIGFS is now showing 5-7" (8-11" at 15:1 ratios) for CNJ on Sunday vs. nada at 12Z.
There are now no models showing less than 3-5" for CNJ and most are showing 7-10" (and the NBM is still showing 8-12" for CNJ at 18Z and at 12Z). But, we're still a bit over 4.5 days out which is an eternity in meteorology, so there's no guarantee something won't change to drive snowfall forecasts back down, although I highly doubt we're going below 3-5" - for me the question is whether we get the 8-12" amounts as shown on the NBM (which would be 12-18" at 15:1 ratios). That's why this stuff is so fascinating and I also have no idea why some get so emotional about it (not including you in that - your post was excellent) - it's just science.
So things are coming into a little better focus, as we’re now about 4.6 days from the start of the event, probably in the wee hours of Sunday morning (relative to the 1 pm EST model inputs for the 18Z runs) and we’re seeing pretty much all of the models showing at least 3-5” through Monday morning with most models showing 6-10” and a few models showing 8-12” with all of those snowfall amounts assuming 10:1, snow to liquid ratios, which is the usual default for our area. However, temps are expected to be in the teens for this event and a cold column with good vertical lift driving formation of low density dendrites is likely to provide at least 15:1 ratio snow, so I’m including that ratio in the bulleted model summary points below. So, if the “average” model snowfall in the NBM right now is 8-12” at 10:1 that would be 12-18” of depth at 15:1. Still a long way to go, though, and while a 4-8” to maybe 8-12” snowfall is looking likely, a minor snowfall (1-2”) is still on the table for folks N of 276/195 with the least snowy case south of there likely being 2-4”; similarly, 12-20” snowfalls for everyone, especially south of 276/195 are also still on the table.
Three other items I'll likely just keep repeating in the post summaries, as they’re important. First, temps will likely be below 20F from Friday evening through Tuesday morning, i.e., brutally cold with lows in the single digits. Second there is likely going to be a crippling ice storm with 1" or more of ice accretion in a fairly wide swath from Texas to NC on Saturday into Sunday – where exactly that sets up is not a given yet – and north of the ice storm, 8-12” snowfall amounts are looking likely from northern Texas to northern TN/NC and into VA. This could be an historic US winter storm if the current models verify, so I’m including the nationwide snowfall and ice accretion graphics from the NBM model (model blend) that the NWS uses; when we get closer to the event there will be maps for our area. And third, the long range models are still showing signs of additional winter storms from 1/28 through 2/2 (with well below normal temps continuing), but too early to talk about yet. The usual info links are below.
7 pm Edit: the 18Z Euro just came in with 9-12" for CNJ (vs. 7-10" at 12Z) and the 18Z AIFS just came in with 6-9" for CNJ (vs. 5-7" at 12Z), so both models (the two best we have) were bumped up a bit. If the models are still showing a decent consensus by Thursday morning, when all the pieces of energy are over land and well sampled, I'd say we're in line for a major snowstorm and we'll see real forecasts to that effect (the NWS issues them 72 hours in advance of the end time (maybe Thursday pm will have most of the snow in the forecast).
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ing-cold-snow-sunday-125-tuesday-127/page/18/
https://www.weather.gov/phi
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Why do you have a problem posting model output? It's just data, not a forecast as I've said in bold caps and it's a lot easier to look at 7 short bullet points to get a sense of where the modeling is than 14 maps (and a lot easier to post for me).
Dude, why don’t you just go the f*ck away and not read this weather posting if it bothers you so much?
people like you are ruining it for everyone who wants to get the latest information including the weather maps and NWS updates that Numbers posts. Stop being a douchebag and if you don’t like to read what he writes, just don’t open the effing post.
Ok Jacob Frey. Listen to yourself."You're ruining it for everyone". Now you sound like Jan Brady.
why do you have no issues with BAC posting amounts in the other thread?
I’m gunna need some exact snowfall amounts tonight. Thanks
Per tv 12:
European model projects significant snow for NJ.
American model projects minimal - if any - snow for NJ
We ll know much more by Thursday!
European model projects significant snow for NJ.
American model projects minimal - if any - snow for NJ
We ll know much more by Thursday!
Been tracking this storm for our Boone POA. Looks like a potential whopper for much of western NC. This is the first winter we decided to head off the mountain above Boone for January, spending the month in Raleigh. Even here, though, much snow potential. Going to spend February in New Bern, NC. Yikes....