OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
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The snow on the pavement as of 4-5 pm was fairly wet where temps weren't in the 20s (i.e., everywhere except well NW) and that slushy snow will freeze pretty solid at 20F overnight, although it'll certainly be worse where it's been walked or driven on and compacted. Every t-shirt I've caught this year has been given away to a kid/family that's not a regular - our group just likes to compete to catch them. Maybe if you were more competitive you wouldn't still be plowing for a living.
Just cleared about 3/4-1" coating of fluffy, light snow off driveway. The "warmer" side of of driveway had very little accumulation. Still coming down at a moderate pace in Allenwood.
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Sorry I don't have a masters in nothing but people like me make sure the roads are clear for people like you. I bet I make more money overnite than you made in a week.
About 3 here..on the heavier side and wet different than yesterdays fluff. 1.5 this morning plus 1.5 2nd batch
All but done
All but done
It's over here. Just did a little cleanup during commercials for the Rams Bears. Driveway is clean and will be dry tomorrow.
Not even close, sorry.Sorry I don't have a masters in nothing but people like me make sure the roads are clear for people like you. I bet I make more money overnite than you made in a week.
Calling it over at 8:45 pm, as the snow became light around 8:20 pm and looks like it'll be just flurries from here on with precip ending shortly, unless there's a surprise. Anyway, we got 2.4" of new snow for a total of 4.1" today and 5.8" over two days, which I'm ecstatic about. Another very pretty snow as it wasn't windy and the snow was wet enough to stick to the trees. Going to finish watching the football game and then go shovel.
We shoveled this afternoon at around 3 and we had almost 2” then. I just went out and cleared a path out to the street to clear the mouth of the driveway where the plows made a wall (before it froze solid overnight) and we had a solid 2.5” additional (measured in multiple locations each time).
So… it looks like we got at least 4-4.5” today as I suspect there was some compaction before I measured.
Also, the snow we shoveled this afternoon was wetter (perfect snowball/ snowman snow) but the snow I just cleared was much drier/icier/fluffy and not good for snowballs.
Overall, a decent amount of snow this weekend so the forecast, while not perfect, was pretty good!
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Runs like this and sometimes storms like this are often (but not always) products of patterns we'll have in place the next 2 weeks. If people are interested, below is a graphic showing the Euro AI model's ensemble of 50 runs for Central Park from this afternoon at 12Z made with small variations in model initial and boundary conditions in order to gauge the sensitivity of the model to these variations (this is done because the data inputs are always incomplete and imperfect, so there is always variance on those model inputs).
In this run one can see a huge amount of pink (cumulative snow above 10") after about 1/24, with the biggest jumps centered around 1/25-126 and 1/28-30, which one can see more easily in the "mean" figure at the bottom of the graphic. It's worth noting that 8 of those 50 runs show >20" for the 15-day period, while 35 of 50 show >6" cumulatively (with ~80-90% of that snow coming after 1/24), which is impressive, as there are usually a lot of runs that have no snow, bringing the mean down. All of this indicates the potential for significant snowfall around these dates, which also coincides with us seeing the operational versions of the major global models (Euro, CMC, GFS and now their AI counterparts, with the Euro AI being the best so the Euro AIFS ensembles, in this graphic is the best ensemble model), as one can see by the Euro AIFS snowfall graphic you posted for 1/25 (it was similar at 12Z and other models have been too, at times).
In addition, the Euro AIFS ensemble, below, showing the mean of the 50 runs is 10"+ is almost unheard of for a 15-day projection (a typical ensemble run might have 2-4" of snow for a 15-day period in January) and we're seeing that with the other ensemble means for the other models. And while having an extremely high ensemble snowfall mean is no guarantee that there will be a major snowstorm during that time (they are pretty rare and certainty simply doesn't exist in forecasting this far out), it is true that most of the major to historic snowstorms of the past 20 or so years were preceded by somewhat similar patterns as now that were showing anomalously high snowfall projections.
It's worth perusing the linked page from AmericanWx with way more on this stuff (including graphics showing most of the model ensemble mean snowfalls for the next 15 days are 8-12") and looking at the post by brooklynwx, a great young meteorologist (3rd post on that page), where he says: "This is probably the best shot at repeating a Feb 2021 type stretch in quite some time. hopefully we can cash in… we have high end overrunning potential around the 25th and then a more prototypical big coastal chance (on 1/28) as the -NAO decays and the PNA rises." FYI, I got 35" of snow in Feb-21.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62470-january-2026-obs-and-discussion/page/60/
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We ended up getting a couple of inches. It was raining when we walked up the boardwalk to go have dinner at about 5:00 p.m., and snowing heavily on the walk home...
This thing should have resulted in its own thread.
As should the upcoming one if it holds tru to form.
Doing this long winded thread (that includes actual events) as has been explained numerous times on a mobile device is annoying. And more importantly a disservice to those who need timely info instead of scrolling.
Want to talk about a trend? Fine.
Want to talk about a particular event? Own thread.
As should the upcoming one if it holds tru to form.
Doing this long winded thread (that includes actual events) as has been explained numerous times on a mobile device is annoying. And more importantly a disservice to those who need timely info instead of scrolling.
Want to talk about a trend? Fine.
Want to talk about a particular event? Own thread.
33 and decent melting helped by suns rays
That will change tonight. Hard freeze with black ice and ice chunks galore as we fall into teens not getting out of 20s tomorrow and near zero Wednesday morning. Wednesdays highs will be similar to today before low to mid 40s sauna on Thursday
That will change tonight. Hard freeze with black ice and ice chunks galore as we fall into teens not getting out of 20s tomorrow and near zero Wednesday morning. Wednesdays highs will be similar to today before low to mid 40s sauna on Thursday
Agree completely. But that usually brings out the clown car of troublemakers. Interestingly, they were noticeably absent for this particular storm.
Who cares?
The adults have no problem filtering out the particular noise those types bring to the table.
THIS POST IS NOT A FORECAST - IT'S JUST DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/25 (AND BEYOND)
To illustrate the potent potential of this pattern, the graphic below is the total snowfall predicted by the Euro-AIFS over the next 15 days, featuring the likely storm on 1/25 and potential storms on 1/29 and 2/1. The AIFS, the Euro's AI version, has become the best model out there, but is nowhere near infallible (the Euro and GFS non-AI models are still heavily used, but haven't been as good on this winter's storms, although the Euro did better on 12/27 than the AIFS).
Nobody expects this run of this model showing 30-48" for our area through 2/3 to be correct, but the GFS and Euro do show major snowstorms after 1/26 that just miss our area, so the potential is there. And for 1/26, the Euro, UK, CMC, AIGFS, and ICON show significant (4-8") to major (8"+) snowstorms (with very cold temps in place, like low 20s, so no mixing concerns), while the GFS shows a major snowstorm to our south for VA/NC. Note that wherever the southern edge of the precip ends up, there's the risk of an ice storm.
So let's talk about the potentially historic and crippling ice storm threat for much of the southern US, if the Euro AIFS (and other models) are correct about the 1/25 storm. With so much cold air in place, and a lot of moisture streaming in from the southern portion of the eventual Miller B system (it'll combine with northern stream energy) that eventually hits the mid-Atlantic and NE US, the ingredients are there for a major southern ice storm.
Below is the freezing rain map for the 1/25-26 storm for the southern US from TX to NC; note that this is how much rain is predicted to fall into sub-32F surface temps, not how much ice will accrete onto those surfaces (rule of thumb is maybe half of what falls accretes when it's falling at a decent rate; drizzle accretes better). Again, this is NOT a forecast, as the ice may end up somewhat north or south of what is shown by this one model (the Canadian), but up to 1" of ice is likely to fall in some swath across the south and if that verifies, I'm afraid it will be an even bigger story with bigger impacts than a foot or more of snow further north.
Yes, they were and if that works, I'm going to stick with it and just change the thread title like I did for this.
I've done these threads for years to try to help folks out and because they used to be a lot more fun, but given my reduced interest in RU sports and my reduced patience in arguing with moronic trolls (and I need to be clear here - while bac and I argue about the weather, he usually adds a lot to these threads, so I'm not talking about him at all), if this approach works better to reduce the trolling then that's what I'm going to do.Who cares?
The adults have no problem filtering out the particular noise those types bring to the table.
I'm about "this far" from not posting here at all anymore as I simply post way less on RU sports, so my interest in posting weather threads here is much less too. I post weather info on 2 weather boards, TOS, FB and have a ~500 person weather email list and this is the only place I get trolled and I just don't need it anymore. I've asked repeatedly for certain trolls to be thread-banned (like they used to be), but with no response, so this approach is 2nd best for me. I would prefer a thread for each storm, but every time I start one it's like Lord of the Flies all over again.
Others are free to start separate weather threads, but I'm going to just post here and update the title. Also, I still don't understand why it's any issue to click the "last page" button on the thread and simply scroll down to the latest posts on that page, which is what you have to do on every other thread - took me 5 seconds to get to the current posts.
If this next storm (and any future one) preforms as expected you should do the correct thing and create its own thread.
If you don’t, that tells me it’s more about you than helping the people who do use the great information provided.
Why don't you just put them on ignore?
Anyway, when do you think we have a decently accurate idea of this next one?
More importantly, and I've told him this many times, if you just don't engage them they eventually stop. But by reacting to them, he gives them just what they want.
I don’t get your obsession with this. The thread was not that difficult to follow and he does the analysis/forecasting as a hobby. However he wants to present it doesn’t make a difference to me.
It’s not an obsession, it’s an observation and an opinion.
I think for a bigger event, whether it be a hurricane or a blizzard it should end up being it’s own thread.
As I said earlier, a trend thread is one thing an event that affects a lot of us should be covered differently.
I get that and I think you make good points, but we can’t dictate how a poster wants to present a topic.
The poster and I have had a gentleman’s agreement on this topic for quite some time.
I know. But the poster clearly explained why that has changed and I don’t blame him. There are a group of douches that try to make these threads unreadable. Thankfully, that wasn’t the case this time.
Then that says more about him then anything else.
As for the topic it was originally titled “Winter Weather 2025-2026” with the intent to speak of trends. The change happened when we finally had something to talk about…an actual weather event.
The goal here is to try and see how many pages this thing will grow to for the season. He has admitted to that in the past. And you and I are helping with the post and page count. LOL
Sorry man, you’re being petty now. I have no knowledge of page counts/post counts. Just participating in this particular thread. The OP changed the title several times to accurately reflect what was going on at the time.
No, it says more about the people who troll these threads and the lack of moderation than it does about me. And since this thread got very little trolling when I just modified the title to include new threats that's the way I'm going to go for at least awhile.
I also never said anything about wanting a very long thread - in a world without trolls there would be a pattern/general thread and a new thread for each event, which is how the weather boards run things, but that hasn't worked for me or many posters for awhile, due to the sometimes incessant trolling - many posters have complained about it too, not just me and my not engaging the trolling doesn't always help as there are other posters who find trolling to be aberrant behavior and engage with them.
This thread has been far more enjoyable for me and others, so I'll stick with that, unless things change. Sorry to break our "agreement" but sometimes things change and it's really not hard to find the most recent event discussion in this thread, just like you do for any other thread.
Anyway, I changed the thread title to include the Sunday event, so back to posting about the storm shortly, as the 0Z models tonight still look fairly snowy for Sunday (no model shows <3-6" for CNJ at this point with about half of them showing 6-12").