OT: Spring Warmth, 3/5-3/12+? Winter 2025-26 - Patterns and Potential Winter Storms
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As of 9 am, 1.2" new snow at 32F. Looks like another 30-40 minutes of snow to go for this first round as per the radar. Not sure how long the lull will last, but if the HRRR model is to be believed, we won't get much snow from about 10 am to 2 pm, after which snow should pick up again through early evening.
At 1 pm there should be a lull in snow, so no issue then, but 7 pm will likely be the height of the 2nd round of snow with dropping temps, so it'll be poor visibility, but likely decent road conditions on major highways, since we're not supposed to get 1"+ per hour rates, which is usually what you need to get accumulations going on major highways (although 1" per hour can't be ruled out for some heavier bands). Secondary roads will likely be treacherous at 7 pm. I would do that drive, but I have a higher than normal risk tolerance and actually enjoy driving in the snow.
Dan Zarrow
Note: This will not be an all-day steady snow. There will be breaks. In fact, the most model guidance shows a lull moving in around midday as dry air penetrates our atmosphere. So visibility and even road conditions should improve a bit through the lunchtime hours — again, depending where you are. Then, the steadiest, heaviest precipitation of the storm will come in the afternoon, starting around 3 or 4 p.m. Furthermore, dynamic cooling will force a transition for rainy southeastern New Jersey to all snow. This is when the fastest accumulations will occur, just before and just after sunset. Once evening falls, snow should begin to dial back. Final flakes should fall in the Garden State around 9 or 10 p.m
If you want to watch the roads - NJ Traffic Cameras
Yes, but plenty of snow 5-10 miles inland from you, which is closer to the coast than forecast. You'll get your snow at the coast in the late afternoon/evening.
32 and temps may rise a couple and in some locations we will get some compaction and a bit of melting before round 2 this afternoon and it should be winding down by 8pm
Well the models were trash 24 hours before yesterday and todays events so 7 day models would seem to have little credibility
Not even close to snowing here in Atlantic City. Clammy, gray, feels like about 40 degrees...
For yesterday, the models were great (at least 1 day in advance; not as good earlier) for the areas N of 78 that had the advisories for 2-4", but missed even in real time for fairly large areas south of 78 that got at least 1/2" and up to 2+".
And today's event is looking like it's going to deliver the 2-5" forecasted yesterday, although it's true that the range of outcomes in the models prior to about Friday night was huge, making it difficult to forecast. But if there's one thing we're starting to learn if the AI models agree and remain consistent through several cycles, the pros might want to bank on them, as they've had 2-5" for days for most of the area.
You also fail to understand the point about the medium range (7+ days) models. The point of them, especially the ensembles, is to identify storm threats for the mid-Atlantic/Northeast and off and on, we've seen storms modeled for various parts of that area around 1/24-25 and 1/27-28. The operational models are never going to be reliable that far out other than to also occasionally show storms. This weekend's snow was definitely being seen as a possibility over a week out.
I'm going out on a limb and say there is a possibility of snow for the rest of the winter so there.
Light snow on and off but to be honest at 33 degrees the rates arent enough to appreciable add to the 1.5 inches I recieved this morning
That will change as heavier echoes move in from this afternoon but im expecting about more 2 inches maybe less
That will change as heavier echoes move in from this afternoon but im expecting about more 2 inches maybe less
Double forecast bust this weekend.
Predicted too little yesterday and too much today. Can they ever get something right?
We got 1.7" of snow in round 1 this morning, but someone else reported 2.0" from Metuchen (they reported 2.4" yesterday to my 2.2" and has almost always reported higher numbers than me and the intermittent snow since then is ensuring we don't lose snow to compaction/melting. Round 2 should start by 3 pm and deliver another 2" for most of the region, including Metuchen (maybe 3" in spots) by mid evening.
Given how cold it gets tonight and how cold it stays (it might not get above 32F for the next 2 weeks with more snow likely), I can't stress enough how important it is to shovel this evening - otherwise, this high moisture content snow will freeze solid overnight and stick around.
Given how cold it gets tonight and how cold it stays (it might not get above 32F for the next 2 weeks with more snow likely), I can't stress enough how important it is to shovel this evening - otherwise, this high moisture content snow will freeze solid overnight and stick around.
I guarantee you'll get the 2-4" predicted for you today.Double forecast bust this weekend.
Predicted too little yesterday and too much today. Can they ever get something right?
Any update on the "lull" I've been reading about? It's 2pm in Upper Somerset County with light but steady snow. Hoping to get out to the gym today, but don't want 2-3" more snow to deal with later. I can easily be convinced to be lazy today (it is a day of rest!) and postpone the gym for tomorrow with my work officially closed for MLK.
Well I had about a little over 1 inch this morning. It lightened up and it must have meted some because I only measure 1 inch now. In the grass I measured 4. Yesterday we had about 3.5. Roads are just wet here in Raritan Twp by Flemington. Won't ho out till it stops and clear whatever is out there.
Latest HRRR run from 1 pm: shows 2-3" for most, with most of that falling from 4 pm to 10 pm. HRRR did very well on this morning's round 1 and the lull through now (it's best in the very short term, i.e., out through about 10 hours. Radar blowing up for most of SNJ up through southern Monmouth, so not too long, probably before it gets up to 78 and beyond.
Radar has not really filled back in and looks like Mt Holly is realizing they were wrong again as they largely cut the amounts back from this:
To this:
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Yup I just looked at the radar for the next few hours and it barely shows anything. Wrong again I guess. It’s been a mix of wet snow/snow here on and off lately but nothing sticking
Yep...any light snow today after the morning burst hasnt accumulated and the nam and hrrr cutting back to 1.5-2 additional at most and that might be a struggle
We got 1.5 inches earlier but thats been compacted a bit since. The 4-5 inch amounts Mt Holly put out were high end and even they based it on yesterday overperforming. We will see happens. I expect 1.5 more at best
By the way Thursday wil be a one day warm up of mid 40s so dont pay attention to Numbers declaration. It will also be above freezing on Wednesday and Friday mid 30s and even Monday should reach 33
Lol..I plowed another 3 inches off the driveway at noon and it's still coming down right now with the possibility of another 2 inches to remove tonight. So thats 5 under our State chin here in south Hunterdon that your map shows 2".
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