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Expected Team Score Update as of 1/13/26 - The OH NO, NO MO Edition

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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,685
4,482
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With the huge news that Massoma Endene is no longer on the Iowa roster along with some shake ups in a few other weights (133, 157) the expected team scores look pretty different to start the year.

One month ago it was a dead heat between Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa. Now there is separation.

But all is not lost for Iowa. Even assuming zero points at 197 (as I have for this exercise) they are still in a dog fight for third. The clear problem is if Oklahoma State decides to pull Jax Forrest's redshirt.

Endene's exile doesn't kill Iowa as much as it removes all room for error.

 
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Trakker

All-Conference
Jan 1, 2023
761
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Also, AJ's situation at NE could factor in....

Psu is a lock to win it.

I dont see iowa finishing ahead of Okie State, tOSU, Iowa State or Neb (if AJ is still around) at this point. Wouldnt take much for them to slide outside of top 8. Only guys i feel confident about AA at this point are 165, 174 and 184.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,685
4,482
113
Trakker said:
Also, AJ's situation at NE could factor in....

Psu is a lock to win it.

I dont see iowa finishing ahead of Okie State, tOSU, Iowa State or Neb (if AJ is still around) at this point. Wouldnt take much for them to slide outside of top 8. Only guys i feel confident about AA at this point are 165, 174 and 184.
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At this point Nebraska would need a repeat of last year's over-performance at nationals to have a chance of catching Iowa, and that assumes a fully functioning Ferrari. I am not willing to make that assumption even if he returns.
 
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ThatsStalling

Redshirt
Apr 29, 2018
14
20
3
Wrestleknownothing said:
With the huge news that Massoma Endene is no longer on the Iowa roster along with some shake ups in a few other weights (133, 157) the expected team scores look pretty different to start the year.

One month ago it was a dead heat between Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa. Now there is separation.

But all is not lost for Iowa. Even assuming zero points at 197 (as I have for this exercise) they are still in a dog fight for third. The clear problem is if Oklahoma State decides to pull Jax Forrest's redshirt.

Endene's exile doesn't kill Iowa as much as it removes all room for error.

Click to expand...
Sorry if you’ve already answered this, but which website’s rankings are you using? Love the analytics, just curious.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,685
4,482
113
ThatsStalling said:
Sorry if you’ve already answered this, but which website’s rankings are you using? Love the analytics, just curious.
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For this graph I used Flo, but I also do them using Intermat and Wrestlestat. Those are the only 3 I am aware of that go all the way to 33 in their rankings. For attaching expected scores to the rankings I use my own method built off of historical results.
 
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A

Anon1750875978

Heisman
Dec 26, 2018
6,474
11,243
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Ayala isn't a lock to AA.

History shows us that when past AAs that are seniors...lose before semis many times just "pack it in".

Hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Drake in top four.
 
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ThatsStalling

Redshirt
Apr 29, 2018
14
20
3
Wrestleknownothing said:
For this graph I used Flo, but I also do them using Intermat and Wrestlestat. Those are the only 3 I am aware of that go all the way to 33 in their rankings. For attaching expected scores to the rankings I use my own method built off of historical results.
Click to expand...
That’s cool, I keep a weekly average ranking on a spreadsheet with Flo, Intermat, Theopenmat, and Win-magazine. Awn is too out there for me and wrestlestat has a weird algorithm for freshman sometimes.
 
InTheCircle

InTheCircle

All-Conference
Apr 3, 2018
381
1,294
93
ThatsStalling said:
That’s cool, I keep a weekly average ranking on a spreadsheet with Flo, Intermat, Theopenmat, and Win-magazine. Awn is too out there for me and wrestlestat has a weird algorithm for freshman sometimes.
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If you feel like it. I d be interested to know which ranking service are the most accurate. Using initial rankings, The beginning of 2nd semester (or week 11-12), before conference and final results.
there are many variables, most notably injuries. However, if you have a chance I’d appreciate it.
 
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98lberEating2Lunches

98lberEating2Lunches

All-Conference
Feb 11, 2018
769
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Trakker said:
Also, AJ's situation at NE could factor in....

Psu is a lock to win it.

I dont see iowa finishing ahead of Okie State, tOSU, Iowa State or Neb (if AJ is still around) at this point. Wouldnt take much for them to slide outside of top 8. Only guys i feel confident about AA at this point are 165, 174 and 184.
Click to expand...
Lehigh could be in the mix soon.
 
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Wrestleknownothing

All-Conference
Oct 30, 2021
1,685
4,482
113
HugoHugo said:
With his recent losses and the strength/depth at his weight, his seeding is going to be a gauntlet to get to the semifinals.
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As an #8 seed (where Intermat has Ayala) the normal odds of AAing are around 47% and finishing top 6 (i.e. make semis) are roughly 31%.
As an #11 seed (where Flo has Ayala) the normal odds of AAing are around 28% and finishing top 6 are roughly 15%.

Given the depth of 133 this year you may want to adjust those.
 
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E

EIHCGuy

Junior
Jul 7, 2025
199
397
63
Anon1750875978 said:
Ayala isn't a lock to AA.

History shows us that when past AAs that are seniors...lose before semis many times just "pack it in".

Hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Drake in top four.
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Scouting is an amazing process.

Teams have caught on to his shtick.
 
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maxpain

All-American
Jul 6, 2006
1,940
6,410
113
EIHCGuy said:
Scouting is an amazing process.

Teams have caught on to his shtick.
Click to expand...

Not saying you are wrong, but if the argument is that he has been the same guy with the same moves it doesn’t seem plausible that it would have taken 3 years/2 finals runs for the teams to have finally scouted his slide by and single leg.
 
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TherealGrip220

TherealGrip220

All-Conference
Oct 14, 2025
482
1,455
93
You guys did not mention Wisconsin im sure they will most likely beat us in march also. You know because they almost beat us in the dual.
What about Cornell also and VT oh and NC state
 
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maxpain

All-American
Jul 6, 2006
1,940
6,410
113
TherealGrip220 said:
You guys did not mention Wisconsin im sure they will most likely beat us in march also. You know because they almost beat us in the dual.
What about Cornell also and VT oh and NC state
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You are joking but Cornell and NC State could absolutely give us a run. Both have a decent shot at 2 finalists.

Joy and Shapiro for Cornell
Robinson and Trumble for NC St. I would also give Singleton an outside shot at 174
 
TNTwrestle

TNTwrestle

Senior
Jun 6, 2025
101
407
63
All of the talk about him kills me. When the season started I wasn't too worried because he has had some inexplicable losses in the early season before. Whether it's conditioning, weight management, lack of motivation, I don't know. But, unless he was sick (which several guys looked like they might be) last Friday night, I have come to believe he has a substantial injury. I'm not going to say what I think it is, for several reasons, but if it is what I think, he's not going to heal during the season. I was right about McDonough during his Senior year when everyone was speculating lots of stupid things. I hope I am wrong and he was just sick last week, but I don't think being scouted is his downfall. A more competitive weight class this year is a definite issue though.
 
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