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OT: NIL Has Leveled the Field . . . and the SEC-2026 DRAFT FIRST ROUND

Knight Shift

Knight Shift

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Sorry for posting a paywalled article, but if you can access this, a great read. The takeaways:


- Indiana's total dominance of Alabama in the CFP.

-Less important, SEC bowl record demise over the years:
SEC is 2-7 against teams from other conferences.
Big Ten (9-4), the ACC (8-4) and the Big 12 (4-4).
Five years ago: the SEC went 7-2, while the Big Ten went 3-2, ACC was 0-7 and Big 12 was 5-0

Extensive discussion of Illinois under Bielema and his experience at Arkansas, and that the beginning of legal NIL prompted Saban to retire.

NFL draft analysts also noting the B1G catching up with SEC on number of drafted players.

SEC teams all have resources now. Kentucky is 13th or 14th in resources, but would be 3rd or 4th in ACC. Miami is mentioned as keeping Florida kids at home now.

In the legal NIL era, the SEC means less.

While not in the article, now Rutgers has more resources--- what does it mean for Rutgers?
Sjsu Theres A Chance GIF by San Jose State Spartans


www.nytimes.com

The SEC’s dismal bowl record this season points to a fundamental truth: money matters

The SEC is 4-9 in bowl games this season. Does that point to an even playing field?
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
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Phantom Clip

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It has leveled the playing field in terms of making it "legal" to pay players which always was the advantage of the SEC and old SWC and Big 8 conferences. The playing field is now level but it is also very small. There are not a lot of teams who will be able to compete. If you want to compete in football you will need to spend 17-20 million on your coaching staff and you will have to spend close to 30 million on your roster if you want to have a chance to make the playoffs.

The teams who can't spend this money will become developmental programs for the programs with money. They will recruit and develop players and as soon as those players think they can cash in, they will enter the portal. There is no point in recruiting a high school QB if you are a big time program. Just take your pick of the portal QB's every year or if you are lucky you will get somebody with more than a year of eligibility. You know what your getting wit the portal QB. You have no idea what you are getting with a kid out of high school. Even a 5* is not necessarily a sure thing and you may have to wait a year or two before they are ready.
 
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JL23

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This is exactly what I said would happen once NIL was announced

Two things though:
1. NCAA dropped the ball in regard to regulation, it's the wild west with some rules now in place, remains to be seen if / how they're enforced
2. Portal is a mess - needs to get cleaned up

Prior to NIL, Rutgers literally had no chance to ever realistically compete, and become elite, under the old ways
Buckeye, Michigan, Nitts, SC, Oregon, etc. (and that's not counting ND/FSU/whoever else may join) all have more money, fans, prestige, history, etc. - not a slight, just facts

Now w/NIL (and Zinn at the helm), there's at least hope
You need 1 big donor, or a few big donors, or 1 big corporation, or few corporations, to buy in, and it's game on

You're seeing it with Indiana
Vandy
Texas Tech
SMU

It can be done here.
Will it...gun to my head, I'd say no as there's too many behemoth's in the league
I'd love to be proven wrong though, and would gladly admit if it was

Bottom line is prior to NIL, it was impossible.
Now, although it's still a tall hill to climb, there's at least some semblance of hope
 
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NickRU714

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JL23 said:
This is exactly what I said would happen once NIL was announced

Two things though:
1. NCAA dropped the ball in regard to regulation, it's the wild west with some rules now in place, remains to be seen if / how they're enforced
2. Portal is a mess - needs to get cleaned up

Prior to NIL, Rutgers literally had no chance to ever realistically compete, and become elite, under the old ways
Buckeye, Michigan, Nitts, SC, Oregon, etc. (and that's not counting ND/FSU/whoever else may join) all have more money, fans, prestige, history, etc. - not a slight, just facts

Now w/NIL (and Zinn at the helm), there's at least hope
You need 1 big donor, or a few big donors, or 1 big corporation, or few corporations, to buy in, and it's game on

You're seeing it with Indiana
Vandy
Texas Tech
SMU

It can be done here.
Will it...gun to my head, I'd say no as there's too many behemoth's in the league
I'd love to be proven wrong though, and would gladly admit if it was

Bottom line is prior to NIL, it was impossible.
Now, although it's still a tall hill to climb, there's at least some semblance of hope
Click to expand...

This is what people ignore.

The barrier to entry is gone.
Previously is was "come to our school. Look at our history, facilities, championships, prestige."
We literally could never compete.
Rutgers will never have the historical relevance and prestige of OSU and Michigan.
It would take decades.

But money? We "could" get that.

Yes, we went from 0% chance of competing to 2% chance.
But that's better than nothing.
 
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NickRU714

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I get that 2% still sucks.

People want Rutgers to have a 100% chance to compete.
Equal money to compete.

But the problem is that then EVERY team would have a 100% chance.
That means UConn, Temple and Syracuse get brought UP while Rutgers would get brought DOWN.

It sucks to hear - but we are a "have" in CFB.
Any leveling brings us down more than it brings us up.
 
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bac2therac

bac2therac

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NickRU714 said:
I get that 2% still sucks.

People want Rutgers to have a 100% chance to compete.
Equal money to compete.

But the problem is that then EVERY team would have a 100% chance.
That means UConn, Temple and Syracuse get brought UP while Rutgers would get brought DOWN.

It sucks to hear - but we are a "have" in CFB.
Any leveling brings us down more than it brings us up.
Click to expand...
Rutgers is more at risk of being sent to play with the UConns and Temple than they are competing for playoff spots
 
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LotusAggressor_rivals

LotusAggressor_rivals

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Interesting article. It illustrates the fact that paying players legally, along with liberalized transfer rules, has levelled the playing field somewhat. Whether it's sustainable is another issue.
 
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Knight Shift

Knight Shift

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NickRU714 said:
This is what people ignore.

The barrier to entry is gone.
Previously is was "come to our school. Look at our history, facilities, championships, prestige."
We literally could never compete.
Rutgers will never have the historical relevance and prestige of OSU and Michigan.
It would take decades.

But money? We "could" get that.

Yes, we went from 0% chance of competing to 2% chance.
But that's better than nothing.
Click to expand...
Agree with everything you said with one minor quibble:

"Rutgers will never have the historical relevance and prestige of OSU and Michigan."

Won't have the prestige. But neither OSU or Michigan is the Birthplace of College Football. That is massive historical relevance---150 years ago! Most of the rest of RU's history has hysterical relevance.
 
LotusAggressor_rivals

LotusAggressor_rivals

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NickRU714 said:
I get that 2% still sucks.

People want Rutgers to have a 100% chance to compete.
Equal money to compete.

But the problem is that then EVERY team would have a 100% chance.
That means UConn, Temple and Syracuse get brought UP while Rutgers would get brought DOWN.

It sucks to hear - but we are a "have" in CFB.
Any leveling brings us down more than it brings us up.
Click to expand...
Well, there's now a punchers chance. If some billionaire decides that he wants RU to be a championship program and starts throwing money around, it could happen. Like SMU in the '80s. Except now there's no NCAA to selectively enforce emerging non-blueblood programs out of existence.
 
LotusAggressor_rivals

LotusAggressor_rivals

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Knight Shift said:
Agree with everything you said with one minor quibble:

"Rutgers will never have the historical relevance and prestige of OSU and Michigan."

Won't have the prestige. But neither OSU or Michigan is the Birthplace of College Football. That is massive historical relevance---150 years ago! Most of the rest of RU's history has hysterical relevance.
Click to expand...
Rutgers has history but no tradition.
 
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Caliknight

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It has history. A losing one.

The only way out is the Indiana way. Make an incredible hire while simultaneously getting a big booster to invest. The days of building are over. GS model is far outdated. You win fast or you aren't ever winning. Year 7 is an eternity.
 
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JL23

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NickRU714 said:
This is what people ignore.

The barrier to entry is gone.
Previously is was "come to our school. Look at our history, facilities, championships, prestige."
We literally could never compete.
Rutgers will never have the historical relevance and prestige of OSU and Michigan.
It would take decades.

But money? We "could" get that.

Yes, we went from 0% chance of competing to 2% chance.
But that's better than nothing.
Click to expand...
NIL will benefit the lesser schools - you're currently seeing it in the early stages, and it'll continue leveling the playing field as time goes on
There's a reason Saban, K and Roy all stepped down - yes, they were up there in age, but they saw the writing on the wall

That doesn't mean Bama will suck and get down to Temple's level
But, if the right person writes checks, along with facility upgrades and quality coaching hires, Temple could (albeit likely briefly) have a magical run to get up to Bama's level

Again, not a good chance of it happening, especially if history and a lack of success isn't on your side
But, unlike pre-NIL, not impossible
 
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Anon1754923206

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There’s a lot of copium going around. A few programs with $$ may do better than they would have previously, but the elite programs can rebuild and bulk up even faster than before and they can outspend and collect more $$

…oh and coaching

the big ten will always be OSU, UM and UO and PSU dominated.
The SEC will always be bama, uga and lsu dominant. Don’t for a minute thins ole miss will be in the same position next year. After this run (even if it ends with a natty) they will not be the same without kiffin…
 
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Caliknight

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Anon1754923206 said:
There’s a lot of copium going around. A few programs with $$ may do well than they would have previously but the elite programs can rebuild and bulk up even faster than before and they can outspend and collect more $$

oh and coaching

the big ten will always be OSU, UM and UO and PSU dominated.
The SEC will always be bama, uga and lsu dominant. Don’t for a minute thins ole miss will be in the same position next year.
Click to expand...
Obviously add Indiana to your list. As long as Cig is there anyway.
 
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JL23

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Anon1754923206 said:
There’s a lot of copium going around. A few programs with $$ may do well than they would have previously but the elite programs can rebuild and bulk up even faster than before and they can outspend and collect more $$

oh and coaching

the big ten will always be OSU, UM and UO and PSU dominated.
The SEC will always be bama, uga and lsu dominant. Don’t for a minute thins ole miss will be in the same position next year.
Click to expand...
No reason why Ole Miss can't be elite for years to come, but their margin for error is, and always will be, far less than the aforementioned programs
Oregon largely sucked until Phil Knight came around

If anyone said in the 80's/90s SC would fall off and Oregon would be elite, they'd be laughed out of the room
If Ole Miss gets a sugar daddy like Phil, sky's the limit

UGA wasn't great, sans the Hershel years, until Kirby showed up
Bama sucked under Shula and others until Saban did his thing

This whole situation is fluid
Will be interesting to see what comes out of it
 
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dconifer0

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Phantom Clip said:
It has leveled the playing field in terms of making it "legal" to pay players which always was the advantage of the SEC and old SWC and Big 8 conferences. The playing field is now level but it is also very small. There are not a lot of teams who will be able to compete. If you want to compete in football you will need to spend 17-20 million on your coaching staff and you will have to spend close to 30 million on your roster if you want to have a chance to make the playoffs.

The teams who can't spend this money will become developmental programs for the programs with money. They will recruit and develop players and as soon as those players think they can cash in, they will enter the portal. There is no point in recruiting a high school QB if you are a big time program. Just take your pick of the portal QB's every year or if you are lucky you will get somebody with more than a year of eligibility. You know what your getting wit the portal QB. You have no idea what you are getting with a kid out of high school. Even a 5* is not necessarily a sure thing and you may have to wait a year or two before they are ready.
Click to expand...
"...The playing field is now level but it is also very small. There are not a lot of teams who will be able to compete..."

Perfectly stated, in my opinion...
 
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dconifer0

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I'm honestly happy for Indiana, but they aren't breaking the formula -- they just bought their way into the club.

ETA: yeah, they hired an excellent coach, but add that coach to 2020 Indiana and they aren't in the national semifinals, or even in an extended playoff bracket...
 
Caliknight

Caliknight

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dconifer0 said:
I'm honestly happy for Indiana, but they aren't breaking the formula -- they just bought their way into the club.

ETA: yeah, they hired an excellent coach, but add that coach to 2020 Indiana and they aren't in the national semifinals, or even in an extended playoff bracket...
Click to expand...
They might not be in the playoffs but there is no doubt they would have won. Cig lost two games his first year in the B1G with 3 star guys he developed and brought over from JMU. Their starting D this year has zero four or five stars. The guy can flat out coach. He's the new Saban.
 
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dconifer0

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Caliknight said:
They might not be in the playoffs but there is no doubt they would have won. Cig lost two games his first year in the B1G with 3 star guys he developed and brought over from JMU. Their starting D this year has zero four or five stars. The guy can flat out coach. He's the new Saban.
Click to expand...
I didn't know those numbers. Yeah, I'm probably not giving the man enough credit. And to think he was there for the taking for several years...
 
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RU#1fan

RU#1fan

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“Level the Playing Field”? LMAO
It’s the Wild West out there and the few Programs with big Whale Billionaire Boosters making sure their Teams have the best players in the country. Zero parity. Great job by the worthless NCAA.
 
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Retired711

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The good news is that any school can make a splash these days with a lot of money --Indiana proves that. The bad news is that Rutgers is unlikely to have that kind of money. We don't have an alum like Mark Cuban contributing oodles of money.
 
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NickRU714

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Here's the reality in a nut shell:

Nobody here wants an actual level playing field.
Because a truly level playing field hurts Rutgers more than helps.

Equal opportunity for all (uncapped spending - MLB style) means the elite if the elite can use their legacy advantages that Rutgers doesnt have.

However, a level playing field (capped spending or everyone has the same money to spend - NFL, NBA) means the elite of the elite AND Rutgers get pulled down to the average of the 130 FBS teams.

Simple question:
Why should Rutgers be able to use their monetary advantages (conference revenue, stadium revenue, alumni donations) to poach players from Toledo? Is it really fair for Rutgers to outspend Miami (OH)?

How much is UMass spending on Rev Share or NIL compared to Rutgers?
Are you going to care come September 5th?
 
LotusAggressor_rivals

LotusAggressor_rivals

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Retired711 said:
The good news is that any school can make a splash these days with a lot of money --Indiana proves that. The bad news is that Rutgers is unlikely to have that kind of money. We don't have an alum like Mark Cuban contributing oodles of money.
Click to expand...
Or a coach like Curt Cignetti, a coaching lifer who's been a winner at every level. There are several programs with rich alumni contributing lots of cash. Several of those programs either fired their coaches or are about to.
 
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Retired711

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LotusAggressor_rivals said:
Or a coach like Curt Cignetti, a coaching lifer who's been a winner at every level. There are several programs with rich alumni contributing lots of cash. Several of those programs either fired their coaches or are about to.
Click to expand...
Yes, money isn't enough. An excellent coach is necessary. But, no matter how excellent the coach, no school can rise to the top without also having of money. After all, a school needs a lot of money to attract and keep an excellent coach.

BTW, Indiana is being paid more for the naming rights to its stadium ($50 million over 20 years, for an average of $2.5 million) than Rutgers is. ($11.2 million over six years, for an average of $1.87 million.) (Indiana's deal started just before this season.) Discuss among yourselves!
 
Fat Koko

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Retired711 said:
Yes, money isn't enough. An excellent coach is necessary. But, no matter how excellent the coach, no school can rise to the top without also having of money. After all, a school needs a lot of money to attract and keep an excellent coach.

BTW, Indiana is being paid more for the naming rights to its stadium ($50 million over 20 years, for an average of $2.5 million) than Rutgers is. ($11.2 million over six years, for an average of $1.87 million.) (Indiana's deal started just before this season.) Discuss among yourselves!
Click to expand...

The Rutgers and Indiana football stadium naming rights contracts are not that different.

The Rutgers SHI deal began in 2019 and has been amended twice. I have the contract including amendments so know the numbers. I don't have a copy of the Indiana Merchants Bank contract. If this deal is worth $50 million over 20 years, it probably looks something like the numbers I posted.

The overlap years, 2026-2030, are similar.

1767751673495.png
 
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jsol_05

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Retired711 said:
The good news is that any school can make a splash these days with a lot of money --Indiana proves that. The bad news is that Rutgers is unlikely to have that kind of money. We don't have an alum like Mark Cuban contributing oodles of money.
Click to expand...
Indiana isn't even in the top 15 when it comes to NIL spending. Their coach won with JMU transfer his first year, they have won 25 games in 2 years, that is 4.5 seasons for Rutgers. If you think that they did that becasue of MC $$$ and not coaching. I have a bridge I want to sell you in Brooklyn.
 
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LotusAggressor_rivals

LotusAggressor_rivals

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jsol_05 said:
Indiana isn't even in the top 15 when it comes to NIL spending. Their coach won with JMU transfer his first year, they have won 25 games in 2 years, that is 4.5 seasons for Rutgers. If you think that they did that becasue of MC $$$ and not coaching. I have a bridge I want to sell you in Brooklyn.
Click to expand...
RU took some transfers from the same pool of talent as Indiana. Their transfers played better. A lot better. People want to reduce it to money, but that's only part of the picture, not the whole thing. If some billionaire started shoveling cash at RU with the coaching staff we had this year, the record wouldn't have been any better.
 
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Retired711

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LotusAggressor_rivals said:
RU took some transfers from the same pool of talent as Indiana. Their transfers played better. A lot better. People want to reduce it to money, but that's only part of the picture, not the whole thing. If some billionaire started shoveling cash at RU with the coaching staff we had this year, the record wouldn't have been any better.
Click to expand...
As you know, our friend @RutgersAl is always telling us the program needs money. He's right. But it's like any other business -- there's no point investing unless management is good enough to make the investment worthwhile. Money is necessary; but it's not sufficient.

I've been a GS fan over the years. But the defense was so poor last season -- and we all know he emphasizes defense -- that I'm wondering whether he's losing his touch.
 
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rutgersguy2

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Retired711 said:
The good news is that any school can make a splash these days with a lot of money --Indiana proves that. The bad news is that Rutgers is unlikely to have that kind of money. We don't have an alum like Mark Cuban contributing oodles of money.
Click to expand...
There are tiers of notable accomplishments and you don't need tons of money for all of them. I also don't think IU started with a tons of money in year 1 of Cignetti. Cuban was a bandwagon jumper at the end of year 1 and probably will be on board as long as Cignetti is there. I'd like to see how handles losing staff which inevitably will happen if he continues to be successful.


The number of teams that can realistically win a championship is wider than the past.

The number of teams that can win playoff games is wider than the past.

The number of teams that can make a playoff is wider than the past.

The number of teams that can finish a season ranked is wider than the past.

It also doesn't mean every team is going to do any of these things consistently but going into any given year you have hope of achieving something notable by the end of the year. I've always said a fan's best friend is hope and the new CFB landscape gives a lot more hope to a lot more programs that didn't have it before.
 
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LotusAggressor_rivals

LotusAggressor_rivals

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Retired711 said:
As you know, our friend @RutgersAl is always telling us the program needs money. He's right. But it's like any other business -- there's no point investing unless management is good enough to make the investment worthwhile. Money is necessary; but it's not sufficient.

I've been a GS fan over the years. But the defense was so poor last season -- and we all know he emphasizes defense -- that I'm wondering whether he's losing his touch.
Click to expand...
He certainly lost his touch when it came to hiring Defensive Coordinators.
 
R

Retired711

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rutgersguy2 said:
There are tiers of notable accomplishments and you don't need tons of money for all of them. I also don't think IU started with a tons of money in year 1 of Cignetti. Cuban was a bandwagon jumper at the end of year 1 and probably will be on board as long as Cignetti is there. I'd like to see how handles losing staff which inevitably will happen if he continues to be successful.


The number of teams that can realistically win a championship is wider than the past.

The number of teams that can win playoff games is wider than the past.

The number of teams that can make a playoff is wider than the past.

The number of teams that can finish a season ranked is wider than the past.

It also doesn't mean every team is going to do any of these things consistently but going into any given year you have hope of achieving something notable by the end of the year. I've always said a fan's best friend is hope and the new CFB landscape gives a lot more hope to a lot more programs that didn't have it before.
Click to expand...
Yes. Again, it's like a business. You do well on a shoestring and that encourages venture capitalists to invest. If you're good, you use the money wisely. If Schiano were to produce teams that overachieved annually (without necessarily winning championships) that would encourage large donations. Success on the field starts the ball rolling.
 
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