Recent content by WyoTiger

  1. WyoTiger

    **Georgia Runoffs**

    Haven’t been the the RT lately, so just seeing this, but our taxes are likely to go up next year regardless. The 2017 tax plan baked-in increases on practically all brackets that go into effect in January 2021. Pretty smart move, actually. Behavioral economics show that we value short-term gains...
  2. WyoTiger

    Gallup Poll - Please help me understand this one...

    Link to the NYT article on shifts in voter registration numbers over the last month or two. I will say, if these hold, this could be the silent majority discussed, though I am not sure it would be enough to surmount the current polling. I still would rather be Biden than Trump but these are...
  3. WyoTiger

    Gallup Poll - Please help me understand this one...

    I don’t know what single metric is the most predictive of an election victory, if there even is one. I’ll agree the one you list is one in his favor. There are, however, numerous metrics that I would argue are likely as important. For example, from the same Gallup link, confidence in the...
  4. WyoTiger

    Gallup Poll - Please help me understand this one...

    No, you no, you wouldn’t be wrong. The person made a shot That s/he would make 35/100 times. Put into binary terms, however, the probability that they miss the shot is greater than they make it, so a statistical model would predict that they miss the shot. I was simply pointing out that winning...
  5. WyoTiger

    Gallup Poll - Please help me understand this one...

    He, along with all other pre-election-day polling apparatuses, got it wrong in 2016. But Silver and 538 are typically one of the most accurate. I think the fact that Trump won in 2016 on the back of miracles has given him and supporters a false sense of confidence going into this election; that...
  6. WyoTiger

    Gallup Poll - Please help me understand this one...

    And McSally is almost certainly going to lose to Kelly this election, as she is currently trailing by double digits. The quote above about Californians moving to get away from the taxes might be true, but that doesn't automatically shift them from Blue to Red. The demographics of that state...
  7. WyoTiger

    Gallup Poll - Please help me understand this one...

    This is the primary difference between 2016 and 2020. Four years ago there was no incumbent in the race, and the Democrats had a very unpopular candidate on the ticket. Trump was the wildcard and people weren't sure of how he would do, but seemed willing to give him the benefit of the doubt over...
  8. WyoTiger

    Halftime PSA

    Roe v. Wade is the shiny coin being waved to get everyone’s attention. The more pressing issue is a case coming up for decision this month that could expand the powers of the presidential pardon. That’s why there is the rush to get Kavanaugh confirmed. If this decision goes along party lines...
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