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Recent content by FLaw47

  1. FLaw47

    issues of the day

    Politicians will start running on hard policies as soon as voters stop punishing them from being specific. To be fair, you pot shot every single Democratic policy there is. What's the advantage to being specific?
  2. FLaw47

    hard to believe

    I want to make this a little more simple for my stubborn friends. If a .300 hitter gets a base hit, were they not a .300 hitter? If Steph Curry is going to a take a free throw and I said "he's got a 90% chance of hitting this" and he misses, was I wrong?
  3. FLaw47

    You saw it here. We are getting Universal Income.

    I believe I was repeatedly explicit that this is a long ways off. In this hypothetical the well off would be profoundly more well off and we'd have to ensure that all the automation would be available to everyone.
  4. FLaw47

    hard to believe

    Virtually everyone was predicting a Clinton victory but the polls weren't particularly inaccurate. Some media organizations used those polls to say that there was a 90% chance of Clinton winning. 538, I believe, gave Trump a 30% chance of winning. And 30% chances happen all the time. If they...
  5. FLaw47

    You saw it here. We are getting Universal Income.

    I can spell it out for you or you can try and imagine, for a moment, what the world might look like when automation (a long time from now) has removed the need for >50% of jobs and half of our "working age" population is unemployed because there is simply no work.
  6. FLaw47

    Our GRID Is Dying - Just When We Need to Double It Because of AI

    There's a permitting bill that's floating around right now that could be very good for this. Just listened to a podcast on it.
  7. FLaw47

    hard to believe

    EDIT: I'm adding this to the top because I want to lead with my conclusion. My overall thesis was instructive and the actual data suggests to me that national polling still has plenty of value. There's just two things: We've had a lot of close elections recently so even accurate polling looks...
  8. FLaw47

    hard to believe

    To add to this (and I'm not going to look it up because I don't think the people I'm trying to convince will really care about the data), my recollection is that, since Trump, elections where Trump is on the ballot of had polling that somewhat skewed in Democrats favor but the opposite was true...
  9. FLaw47

    hard to believe

    I don't think anybody has ever claimed that the polling is perfect, but to say that a 2.5 percentage point miss is endemic of a problem is a real stretch to me. I seem to remember the polls were actually less accurate in 2020, but nobody seemed to care because they correctly "picked the winner."...
  10. FLaw47

    hard to believe

    Which is within the margin of error on those aggregates and individual polls, right?
  11. FLaw47

    You saw it here. We are getting Universal Income.

    At some vague point in the distant future, some form of socialism and/or universal basic income will be the only ethical solution for our society. I'm not saying we're anywhere close to that. The alternative is all of the anarcho-capitalism dystopian TV shows we've seen.
  12. FLaw47

    hard to believe

    Can you help me understand where aggregate polling at a national level has actually been erroneous recently? Because to me it sounds like you're cherry-picking data to fit your narrative. I do understand that some state-level polling can be off, though for actual elections I don't remember one...
  13. FLaw47

    New Polling is ugly for DJT

    It didn't stop people from voting for Trump again, only for them to immediately regret it. Americans have very poor memories when it comes to politics.
  14. FLaw47

    hard to believe

    I'm glancing though this poll and virtually everything they measure is considerably more pro-Republican than other polls. This is part of why it's important to not care too much about what an individual polls says and to use aggregations instead.
  15. FLaw47

    Looking for some good show recommendations

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