The one after. UCF was their 2nd rd match-up and they got bailed out big time by the refs in the last seconds. Then VT had them beat in the sw16 and the refs bailed Duke out again. MSU somehow managed to come back from 9 down in the 2nd half to beat them in the E8.
We have a chance and Duke doesn't, therefor Duke will get the easiest bracket to increase their chances. I see another Mercer/Lehigh looming for them this year.