Lunardi is notoriously literally one of the worst predictors at this stuff. As in out of like 150 'experts' he's near the bottom of accuracy every year.
If we lose our first game this week I can guarantee you our seed won't be the same as it would have been if we would have won one or two of these last few games. So yes...how you finish does matter.
As of right now, yes, we are in and not iffy. However, IF we lose the next two (very likely) and then lose first game in BTT? Yeah...I'll be sweating. I think we'd still be in but bid stealers would start to worry me a bit.
What? Look up their road and neutral record and tell me how that goes. Also, TCU would beat us. They beat Florida. They beat Wisconsin. Lost to Michigan by 4. Beat Iowa State. How are they 'pretty bad'?
I get that but for every 'close loss' there are close wins which also could be flipped. Lose against Ol' Miss, USC, Rutgers and NW and the season is a disaster. We are who we are and the record reflects the good and the warts.