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brianpoe

Heisman
Mar 25, 2009
27,769
21,825
113
I get that people are upset over that awful loss and the fact we blew the easiest path the final four that we will ever have.

Much of this frustration is now being pointed to this “mass exodus” that has yet to occur.

So many untruths and exaggeration is being spread around.

We do not lose every freshman to the draft and we do not lose every sophomore as a transfer.


But let’s look at both in historical context and see how this team matches with previous departures:


1. We have never lost a freshman that wasn’t a 1st Round pick.

As of today that is Knox and SGA.

I have been on record stating that SGA is not a natural PG or even a true SG. I believe he was exposed last game and will not be a lottery pick. There are a handful of PGs with his size outside of Young and Sexton that he will be competing with who are all true PGs and many shot well over 40% from the 3.

But the kid has played very well and we will soon see if the NBA really likes his game or they believe his tool set is simply custom made for the college game.

There is a huge risk for kids to enter without being a 1st Rounder. Everything from the lack of guaranteed money to less patience and effort from the team than a 1st Rounder would get and much easier to cast off if a player takes too long to develop.


Hami is a RS freshman who has been through the workouts and may have a leg up as to what needs to be done to get a sniff at the first round.

It is reasonable to suggest that his stock has dropped tremendously this season. He has great potential to be a beast next season.

Which is a two- headed sword as NBA people know this as well and he could very well be talked into taking a 2nd Round guaranteed contract.


Vanderbilt showed great rebounding and passing skills, he also displayed an offensive game that was simply awful.

Please stop with the Dennis Rodman comparison as he averaged 25pts and 18 rebounds his senior season in college.

People suggest he may go because of his injuries... the NBA is well aware of those injuries too...

Could a team take a flyer in the 2nd on JV? Possibly, but you would think any contract would be incentive ridden based upon actually playing time... He may face this his entire career if he doesn’t play a full season of college ball.

Keep this in mind as well...

Vanderbilt wasn’t as highly touted as a recruit or an NBA Draft prospect coming out of high school. He was the No. 12 overall player in the 2017 class, according to the 247Sports composite rankings, but — even before his latest injury, the second to his left foot in the past two years — Givony never projected him as a first-round, one-and-done pick.

JV’s handlers/family are the wildcard with his decision making.


PJ, Green nor Richards are any boards nor are they being discussed as potential entries. I have no doubt all will test the waters and no one should be worried about that.


2. UK transfers consist of players being recruited over.

Wiltjer already faced with Poythress watched us bring in Lee and Randle at the 4 spot and a wing in James Young. Had he stayed Trey Lyles was coming the next season.

Lee had Bam, Gabriel, Humphries, and SKJ coming in...

UK does not have any bigs coming in to contend with SKJ or Wenyen, so this reasoning would not apply.


3. Sophomores leaving for the NBA were the tops in their class at their position and did not reach their predicted potential as freshmen.

Dakari was the #1 center ranked ahead of Embiid

Andrew was the #1 PG

Aaron was the #1 SG

Briscoe was the #1 PG

These kids were supposed to be OAD before ever arriving at UK. The problem with kids like this is the longer they wait to make the jump the more critical the league is of them.


Wenyen was a late riser to #13 in the country and 4th best PF.

Sacha was never higher than #24 and 7th best at his position.

So this does not apply to them either.


4. Tyler Ulis left

Everyone already knows Tyler had maxed out his value after becoming a 1st Team AA, Bob Cousy winner, SEC POY, Defensive POY, 1st Team All-SEC, SEC Tournament MVP

No worries about SKJ or Wenyen maxing out yet....


So basically, if historical trends maintain then as of today we lose Knox and SGA.

Hami is a RS Freshman and may have a Briscoe tendency to go no matter what, although we did not see that last draft nor have we heard that this season. But he definitely could jump.

Vanderbilt is a huge unknown.

People keep stating Wenyen’s financial dilemma, but no one has sourced this whatsoever. The kid grew up in the USA and has a real chance at NBA money someday.

Let’s see what happens and if this season actually changes the way things have gone EVERY single post season Cal has been here.
 
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TigerMoving

TigerMoving

Heisman
Jul 13, 2014
7,984
22,142
113
Has anyone close to the team heard any rumors about who they think is staying/going?
 
T

TrustinCal

Senior
Feb 7, 2014
1,384
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Dennis Rodman didn't even play NCAA basketball. Vanderbilt has got a motor and good handle for his size. Offensively he could become a Draymond Green type of player.
 
C

crpoore

Senior
Mar 28, 2009
488
578
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Brian, the culture that Cal has created could be his demise. He's put all of his chips in recruiting on the message of:

1. Players first.

2. I will get you on a fast track out of here.

Well, that's not exactly working so well now. He seems like he's getting a bigger chip on his shoulder, and his stubbornness is not exactly doing him any favors.

It's starting to seem as if he's almost becoming irritated at just about everyone. Bad mouthing his loyal fans. Bitching about brackets, the media, fans.

He better hope everyone returns that should, because it's going to get really ugly if there's another mass exodus. I think everyone, including Cal, knows this.
 
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PowerofPelphrey

Senior
Mar 8, 2006
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ManitouDan said:
Didn’t read it but someone cue “ you got too much time on your hands “ by Styx
Click to expand...

He is just trying to keep his mind busy since we blew the game against K state and should be playlng tonight.

I have been in zombie mode all day bc still can’t believe we blew this opportunity and are not playlng!

Huge loss Thursday.. but .. life goes on .. Wisky loss.. Luke Maye jumper.. lots of highs and lows being a Wildcat fan!
 
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B

brianpoe

Heisman
Mar 25, 2009
27,769
21,825
113
TrustinCal said:
Dennis Rodman didn't even play NCAA basketball. Vanderbilt has got a motor and good handle for his size. Offensively he could become a Draymond Green type of player.
Click to expand...


Rodman played NCAA D2 at SE Oklahoma State


Draymond Green spent 4 years in college, sucked as as a freshman and by the time he was a senior he was good enough to be drafted in the 2nd Round...

Is JV going to get a 4 year deal so he is as good as second rounder by the end of the contract?
 
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KyFaninNC

Heisman
Mar 14, 2005
195,719
24,518
0
Fact is nobody knows. All I ever said was that if we lose as many as 5, with only 3 coming in,without a true PG or a center, we will go thru the same thing next year. Lose a bunch of games, hear the:
wait till camp Cal, wait till the league starts, we always have a February melt down,we will be fine in march,yadda,yadda,yadda,, we are young after every loss.
 
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brianpoe

Heisman
Mar 25, 2009
27,769
21,825
113
crpoore said:
Brian, the culture that Cal has created could be his demise. He's put all of his chips in recruiting on the message of:

1. Players first.

2. I will get you on a fast track out of here.

Well, that's not exactly working so well now. He seems like he's getting a bigger chip on his shoulder, and his stubbornness is not exactly doing him any favors.

It's starting to seem as if he's almost becoming irritated at just about everyone. Bad mouthing his loyal fans. Bitching about brackets, the media, fans.

He better hope everyone returns that should, because it's going to get really ugly if there's another mass exodus. I think everyone, including Cal, knows this.
Click to expand...



I have no doubt that the players leaving before they should is an unexpected collateral damage impact from our recruiting philosophy that has bit us in the butt.

That said those that left way too early were sophs (any freshman with a 1st round guarantee is hard to argue).

And if things hold true we should get both of our Sophomores back. Unless there is something we are unaware of they have no reason to leave.

Hami has been here longer than a year and JV has been getting bad advice since day one. Who knows?


Hard to blame Cal for dissing this fanbase after all he has done. Many act as if we were so awesome prior to him coming. We weren't.

A long time poster just yesterday said he expected a national title every other year.

Some people are not old enough to remember the drought in the 60's to 78, and the drought from 79 to 96. We also had a long one from 99 to 2011...

We no doubt should have at least 1 to 2 more titles, but without Cal we probably are not even close to getting that opportunity.
 
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crpoore

Senior
Mar 28, 2009
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brianpoe said:
I have no doubt that the players leaving before they should is an unexpected collateral damage impact from our recruiting philosophy that has bit us in the butt.

That said those that left way too early were sophs (any freshman with a 1st round guarantee is hard to argue).

And if things hold true we should get both of our Sophomores back. Unless there is something we are unaware of they have no reason to leave.

Hami has been here longer than a year and JV has been getting bad advise since day one. Who knows?


Hard to blame Cal for dissing this fanbase after all he has done. Many act as if we were so awesome prior to him coming. We weren't.

A long time poster just yesterday said he expected a national title every other year.

Some people are not old enough to remember the drought in the 60's to 78, and the drought from 79 to 96. We also had a long one from 99 to 2011...

We no doubt should have at least 1 to 2 more titles, but without Cal we probably are not even close to getting that opportunity.
Click to expand...
Good post.

You're extremely intelligent and well spoken. I appreciate your posts.
 
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M

morgousky

Heisman
Sep 5, 2009
23,959
43,171
0
My gut says a trend could already be in the works and we will have freshman leave without guarantees one way or the other.

I feel it around 68%.

I'm on record. This is the thread where the past record / stats and / or pontificating ends.

Get ready for bumps people, and these are just as scary as Pitino's. Our future is in the air.
 
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brianpoe

Heisman
Mar 25, 2009
27,769
21,825
113
KyFaninNC said:
Fact is nobody knows. All I ever said was that if we lose as many as 5, with only 3 coming in,without a true PG or a center, we will go thru the same thing next year. Lose a bunch of games, hear the:
wait till camp Cal, wait till the league starts, we always have a February melt down,we will be fine in march,yadda,yadda,yadda,, we are young after every loss.
Click to expand...



I absolutely agree.



I think we need to take a look at it a different way as far as Cal is concerned. Yes he created the go to the NBA thing but I'm sure he didnt think kids would get stupid...

Nor could he have known that some kids would play themselves into the NBA draft.


Unexpected:

Orton - brilliant decision for himself but Cal thought he was returning
Bledsoe - played his way into the draft
Kanter - wasnt allowed to play
Teague - Cal thought he was returning
Lamb - Cal thought he was returning
Goodwin - up in the air to stay or go
Booker - played his way into the draft
Dakari - left against advice to stay


Expected but not necessarily endorsed:

Twins
Bledsoe


Transfers will transfer happens to every team. Duke has twice the number we have had.


If all the kids above had played an extra year who knows what would have happened?

I can guarantee you Cal did not push a single one out.
 
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D

docholiday51

Heisman
Oct 19, 2001
22,011
26,718
0
Brian your first two sentences are absolutely correct.If you are correct as to only losing Knox and SGA then there is no room to whine or ***** about player departures.

Hami,Vanderbilt muddy the water more than a little however,it is far from a done deal in any direction.As it stands right now UK has more than usual riding on who goes and who stays.We have 3 guards set to come in next year+ one we haven't seen already here.It would appear that we have an uphill battle to land even one big

You said in another thread that players come nowadays for the coach and not the school again you are 100% correct and judging from what we see looking at next year Cal has slipped to some degree for what ever reason.

Change in the OAD rule may be coming and we will see what that means,but it won't be here by next year

Our situation may work out the best possible way or it may work out at the other end of the spectrum but likely somewhere in between those two extremes.The possibility for either still exists so we can discount neither.
 
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B

brianpoe

Heisman
Mar 25, 2009
27,769
21,825
113
morgousky said:
My gut says a trend could already be in the works and we will have freshman leave without guarantees one way or the other.

I feel it around 68%.

I'm on record. This is the thread where the past record / stats and / or pontificating ends.

Get ready for bumps people, and these are just as scary as Pitino's. Our future is in the air.
Click to expand...


None of us will be surprised if it is Hami or JV or both.

I will be somewhat surprised by any others.
 
M

morgousky

Heisman
Sep 5, 2009
23,959
43,171
0
brianpoe said:
I absolutely agree.



I think we need to take a look at it a different way as far as Cal is concerned. Yes he created the go to the NBA thing but I'm sure he didnt think kids would get stupid...

Nor could he have known that some kids would play themselves into the NBA draft.


Unexpected:

Orton - brilliant decision for himself but Cal thought he was returning
Bledsoe - played his way into the draft
Kanter - wasnt allowed to play
Teague - Cal thought he was returning
Lamb - Cal thought he was returning
Goodwin - up in the air to stay or go
Booker - played his way into the draft
Dakari - left against advice to stay


Expected but not necessarily endorsed:

Twins
Bledsoe


Transfers will transfer happens to every team. Duke has twice the number we have had.


If all the kids above had played an extra year who knows what would have happened?

I can guarantee you Cal did not push a single one out.
Click to expand...

He never pushes kids out, in a literal sense. But he did "need them to go" to make himself be seen as the guy to play through to get to the NBA.

He should have seen how many issues it could create but until people slide off the slope they don't realize it's slippery.
 
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B

brianpoe

Heisman
Mar 25, 2009
27,769
21,825
113
morgousky said:
He never pushes kids out, in a literal sense. But he did "need them to go" to make himself be seen as the guy to play through to get to the NBA.

He should have seen how many issues it could create but until people slide off the slope they don't realize it's slippery.
Click to expand...



I can see that, but which kids did he really need to go?

If they do leave and they go high it makes Cal look great.

But if they stay we have a tremendous opportunity to win it all and Cal looks even better...

He was in a no lose situation. After watching Cal all of these years there is a lot of BS we need to wade through.

Cousns for instance. He was gone. Gone. Boogie has been to my house and friend with my boys. He was gone.

I can see him making the statement to Cal about him being nervous or how much he likes being on the team as a family and Cal twisting that into:

"I made him leave, he wanted to stay, I had to do what was best for the player" when in all reality, he was gone and Cal knew he was gone.
 
R

Rupp'sRunt

Heisman
Apr 19, 2008
14,675
20,094
0
morgousky said:
My gut says a trend could already be in the works and we will have freshman leave without guarantees one way or the other.

I feel it around 68%.

I'm on record. This is the thread where the past record / stats and / or pontificating ends.

Get ready for bumps people, and these are just as scary as Pitino's. Our future is in the air.
Click to expand...
But hopefully not
 
B

BigBlueWave

Redshirt
Apr 27, 2003
345
8
16
I can tell ya Knox & Shai are gone unless something changes but not likely. Hami is 50/50. Everyone else probably returns but I don’t know about them for sure.
 
B

brianpoe

Heisman
Mar 25, 2009
27,769
21,825
113
KyFaninNC said:
Maybe not in a literal sense, but when Cal tries to recruit 4 or 5 five stars each year, is it possible that the players see that and don't want to be recruited over. For Cal's system to work that way, he has to have a major turnover each year. I think this is the elephant in the room.
Click to expand...


There is no doubt that happens.

And it is sad to think a player is worried about competing with another great player.
 
D

docholiday51

Heisman
Oct 19, 2001
22,011
26,718
0
brianpoe said:
I can see that, but which kids did he really need to go?

If they do leave and they go high it makes Cal look great.

But if they stay we have a tremendous opportunity to win it all and Cal looks even better...

He was in a no lose situation. After watching Cal all of these years there is a lot of BS we need to wade through.

Cousns for instance. He was gone. Gone. Boogie has been to my house and friend with my boys. He was gone.

I can see him making the statement to Cal about him being nervous or how much he likes being on the team as a family and Cal twisting that into:

"I made him leave, he wanted to stay, I had to do what was best for the player" when in all reality, he was gone and Cal knew he was gone.
Click to expand...
Another hidden gem with respect to Cal and wading thru BS,most of us are just lowly fans but we are smart enough to know BS when we hear it.If Cal would dial back on that just a bit his message would go over a little better.He is the coach and he is making the big bucks but whether he likes it or he doesn't like it or he doesn't give two hoots about it many of us have decades of time invested in UK basketball and until we die we aren't going anywhere.When we hear players first and program second it isn't going to sit well with a number of fans.
 
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R

Rupp'sRunt

Heisman
Apr 19, 2008
14,675
20,094
0
Anyone think PJ could convince Knox and SGA to come back? Or am I just wishful thinking here
 
R

Rupp'sRunt

Heisman
Apr 19, 2008
14,675
20,094
0
docholiday51 said:
Knox probably not,I can see SGA returning over a few others on the team.We can afford to lose SGA more than we can afford to lose others.

I'll get blasted for this but if Knox were at Duke he would likely be back(Kinnard,Allen,Jefferson,etc,etc)
Click to expand...
It's not like Knox was overly impressive at all this year he only had one true "breakout game" @ WVU. He's tenative and doesn't demand the ball, doesn't have the best motor and could fall out of the lottery. Maybe he comes back. Again I'm probably just being overly optimistic.

This team reminds me of the Harrison team that decided to run it back a year. And they almost went 40-0. That's what I'd be selling if I was Cal.
 
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KyFaninNC

Heisman
Mar 14, 2005
195,719
24,518
0
Rupp'sRunt said:
It's not like Knox was overly impressive at all this year he only had one true "breakout game" @ WVU. He's tenative and doesn't demand the ball, doesn't have the best motor and could fall out of the lottery. Maybe he comes back. Again I'm probably just being overly optimistic.

This team reminds me of the Harrison team that decided to run it back a year. And they almost went 40-0. That's what I'd be selling if I was Cal.
Click to expand...
Again, there was a NBA lockout that year.
 
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