Bye Bye COVID

wbyaey

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Dec 27, 2003
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Serious question from someone not at either extreme, these variant are already here and supposedly much more virulent, given these facts and the current case trends across the northern hemisphere. What factor is this model using to predict another spike?
 

Tigerbomb

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Jan 5, 2006
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The decrease is largely due to the crest of the post holiday wave. This is exactly what the modeling my hospital uses predicted. When people feel like this wave is over and decide to get together (especially indoors) hospitals will fill up again, especially as the new more catchy variant become more prevalent.

That's rich.

So we can just expect huge spikes and hospitalizations after Easter, Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas?
 
May 11, 2005
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Until we've reached some level of herd immunity either through infections or vaccinations, yes. People gathering and breathing together will continue to spread the virus.
The point of the article is believing that herd immunity is approaching. 28 mill confirmed cases times 6.5 unconfirmed cases per confirmed case plus all vaccinated thus far. That is the majority of the adult US population.

That is more likely the cause for 6 weeks of declining cases in the middle of winter, not holiday gatherings being over.
 

saber8689

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Jun 27, 2012
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Serious question from someone not at either extreme, these variant are already here and supposedly much more virulent, given these facts and the current case trends across the northern hemisphere. What factor is this model using to predict another spike?

The variants are here but aren't yet the dominant strain.

The one growing the fastest in the US is the UK B117 variant that has shown to 90% more contagious than the standard variant with SOME ability to avoid neutralizing antibodies from a previous infection. Fortunately, both Pfizer and Moderna seem to lose no effectiveness to this variant.

There is a more worrisome variant B135 from South Africa that is similarly contagious but pretty much avoids all protection from previous infection. The oxford vaccine has no effect on it. Moderna and Pfizer are likely less effective, but we dont know for sure yet.

B117 will become the dominant strain in the US likely in April, however I wouldn't expect nearly the spike because of protection from both the vaccine and previous infection/herd immunity.

B135 is not as certain...its here in the US and has been detected in Texas, Florida, and New York.
 

anon1753124268

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Dec 10, 2013
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I mean it makes sense. In two weeks, 60mm people will have 85% immunity. At 2 million vaccinations per day(p much the current rate right now), in 45 days, (April 1), 120mm people with have a minimum of 85% immunity. That’s 50% of the adult population in the US...combine that with people that have had Covid19 in the previous 3 months.....that’s heard immunity.
 

wbyaey

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Dec 27, 2003
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Ok, so why are cases in the UK dropping like a stone. If it’s more infectious, has a higher R0, it certainly should be showing an increase of overall cases in the UK in under two months. There is something else impacting numbers now, and it’s too soon for vaccination numbers to be that impactful. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for caution, but the data is confounding.
The decrease is largely due to the crest of the post holiday wave. This is exactly what the modeling my hospital uses predicted. When people feel like this wave is over and decide to get together (especially indoors) hospitals will fill up again, especially as the new more catchy variant become more prevalent.
The variants are here but aren't yet the dominant strain.

The one growing the fastest in the US is the UK B117 variant that has shown to 90% more contagious than the standard variant with SOME ability to avoid neutralizing antibodies from a previous infection. Fortunately, both Pfizer and Moderna seem to lose no effectiveness to this variant.

There is a more worrisome variant B135 from South Africa that is similarly contagious but pretty much avoids all protection from previous infection. The oxford vaccine has no effect on it. Moderna and Pfizer are likely less effective, but we dont know for sure yet.

B117 will become the dominant strain in the US likely in April, however I wouldn't expect nearly the spike because of protection from both the vaccine and previous infection/herd immunity.

B135 is not as certain...its here in the US and has been detected in Texas, Florida, and New York.
 
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Tiger at State

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Jan 7, 2003
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i hope he's right too. after reading the article linked

I agree. However, masks and social distancing FOREVER.
 
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clempzenbill

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Mar 10, 2006
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I sure hope this guy is right..
Johns Hopkins Doctor Predicts Covid ‘Will Be Mostly Gone By April’
Lololololol. This has been predicted several times and the first time I fell for it. The virus is extremely contagious and mutating all the time. The vaccines won’t cover all strains and the lockdowns have been effectively useless. The vast majority of infections are from work or home ie indoors. Deblasio admitted last summer that most cases in NYC were from people who were sheltered at home. it won’t surprise me if we have Covid seasons every year just like influenza seasons every year.
 
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SwampDonkee

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It will probably keep coming back to a certain extent every year. They can’t cure it. Probably just be less and less as the years go by.
 
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jspears5

Joined Aug 13, 2018
Aug 4, 2008
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That's rich.

So we can just expect huge spikes and hospitalizations after Easter, Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas?

well, it is exactly what we got after thanksgiving and Christmas of this year
 

saber8689

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Jun 27, 2012
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Ok, so why are cases in the UK dropping like a stone. If it’s more infectious, has a higher R0, it certainly should be showing an increase of overall cases in the UK in under two months. There is something else impacting numbers now, and it’s too soon for vaccination numbers to be that impactful. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for caution, but the data is confounding.

Good question. The answer is that the UK variant is so aptly named because it was identified first there. The variant ran rampant through the UK causing the most recent spike and is dropping due to herd immunity (secondary to infections primarily and the vaccine in the elderly).

Even if it seems as if the spike in the US was worse because our gross numbers were higher, the spike in the UK per population was much much worse than the US. The US had a rise of about 30% in infections, while the UK had around 300%.
 

AustinTiger77

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Aug 27, 2007
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Ok, so why are cases in the UK dropping like a stone. If it’s more infectious, has a higher R0, it certainly should be showing an increase of overall cases in the UK in under two months. There is something else impacting numbers now, and it’s too soon for vaccination numbers to be that impactful. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for caution, but the data is confounding.
Ok, so why are cases in the UK dropping like a stone. If it’s more infectious, has a higher R0, it certainly should be showing an increase of overall cases in the UK in under two months. There is something else impacting numbers now, and it’s too soon for vaccination numbers to be that impactful. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for caution, but the data is confounding.

I haven’t followed the UK much lately, but my understanding is that they have been in a pretty strict lockdown.
 
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CUT93

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Jan 8, 2006
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The ones who don't want the economy to open up are the ones who are really risk averse. They think it's currently too dangerous for things to be open. They'll cautiously open things up as the pandemic dies down, just like they have in most places that had harsher public health measures. I do think there's some incentive for government leaders to make things appear to be worse than they are so that people won't go out and spread the virus, but once we really get going with vaccination they won't have the excuse of either high case numbers or the potential for people to increase the spread of the virus.

It seems like some people are just being overly cautious about telling the public when they can expect enough people to be inoculated, because they don't want people to think they can disregard public health measures when we get to that date and not enough people are vaccinated. I can't really say exactly why they're making that their strategy, because I don't think it's effective except for people who are among the most risk averse anyway.
Here is what I don't understand about all the of the fear mongering. There are mask that protect you from the virus. There are also numerous youtube videos to tell you how to make one out of other filter components if you cant buy one. Why in the heck can't people get or make a mask that will protect them from other people and the virus instead of having the all knowing govt destroying other peoples lives so they don't have to protect themselves? This is why the country has gone to crap. There is ZERO self responsibility anymore. Sometime over the last 15-20 yrs a large portion of the public has come to believe it is other peoples responsibility to provide for them and protect them so they don't have to do it for themselves. This mask absurdity is jus the latest example of that.
 

acwill07

Joined Jan 28, 2008
Jan 28, 2008
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Here is what I don't understand about all the of the fear mongering. There are mask that protect you from the virus. There are also numerous youtube videos to tell you how to make one out of other filter components if you cant buy one. Why in the heck can't people get or make a mask that will protect them from other people and the virus instead of having the all knowing govt destroying other peoples lives so they don't have to protect themselves? This is why the country has gone to crap. There is ZERO self responsibility anymore. Sometime over the last 15-20 yrs a large portion of the public has come to believe it is other peoples responsibility to provide for them and protect them so they don't have to do it for themselves. This mask absurdity is jus the latest example of that.

So if I’m following you, you want everyone to make homemade N95 masks?
 
Sep 6, 2007
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Granny Clampet studied medicine at John and Elviry Hopkins in Bugtussle, TN. Much better than “Johnny” come lately Will Ferrell

Walmart, Amazon, etc will be happy if lockdowns go on forever. They are the ones getting rich because they don’t have to shut down
 

CUT93

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Jan 8, 2006
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So if I’m following you, you want everyone to make homemade N95 masks?
I don't want everyone to do anything in particular. If you are high risk or fearful of leaving your house because of the virus, you have a way to protect yourself without worrying about what everyone else is doing. That is my point. I'm not saying they have to do it, just that what we are doing is absurd. More importantly, people should not expect, and the government should not be forcing financial ruin on millions of people in an effort to protect people who are not willing to protect themselves.
 
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Tigerbomb

Heisman
Jan 5, 2006
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well, it is exactly what we got after thanksgiving and Christmas of this year

Total myth.

Go look at any state in the US and you will see the same type of inverted V.

Midwest states peaked well before Christmas, Tennesse area shortly later, Southern states later, but they all look similar.

The virus builds momentum over a 6 to 8 week period and then cases drop like a rock.
 

PAWrocka

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Nov 3, 2008
21,044
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Biden won't push china like that. He knows what gift China gave Trump in his election year. Biden will go along to get along like most presidents do, unfortunately
He should cease all Chinese assets(Government and private) here in the US and tell China our debt to them is considered paid in full.

F* China !
They have been nothing but thieves and liars since they were allowed to participate in the Global stage. And if they wasn’t enough ... pepper in some good ole fashioned genocide.

F* em!
 

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,782
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Ah, you’re seeing that wrong. Let me help...The virus is 6.5 times more contagious than originally thought. Thus, we must take even more drastic measures to minimize the spread. Stay home, wear 2-3 masks, close schools/businesses, etc etc etc.
Ah, you're seeing that wrong. Let me help...The virus has no impact on the overwelming number of people that get it. Those who are at a high risk should protect themselves. The rest have no concerns and should go about their daily lives as normal. Government interference is not needed.
 

TheValley91

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Jan 20, 2013
20,717
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Ah, you're seeing that wrong. Let me help...The virus has no impact on the overwelming number of people that get it. Those who are at a high risk should protect themselves. The rest have no concerns and should go about their daily lives as normal. Government interference is not needed.
Well that is a poorly informed ignorant take. Job well done. You have embarrassed yourself.