🚨🚨🚨IRAN WAR IS BACK ON!!!🚨🚨🚨
- Thread starter BlIIlken2
- Start date
The sooner Putin and Trump are defeated, the sooner the world can get back on course.
You know what would solve this? The president attending game 3 of the NBA Finals.
Putin, Cheeto and Satanayhu
How many in a "wave"? Does Iran have enough to constitute a single wave, much less a week's worth around the clock?
And even if they could, would that deter Netanyahu?
Better watch it or we’re going to blockade our blockade until markets are about to open and axios can report a rumor it concocts of a peace plan with murky details and a murkier timeline
Waaay less than that. Forty percent of the world GDP is Asia and Asia used 80% of the oil that once flowed out of the Strait of Hormuz. That's why empty tankers are lined up to load American petroleum and gas. Once Asia starts closing factories due to a lack of oil to run them, the world economy starts wobbling. That's in the next two months.
The 5 months is a symbolic number. Ultimately he's likely already cooked. A lot of oil wells have been shut down for months. They won't be up and running by years end. US reserves are super low. Same with the rest of the world. Insurers will be jittery for months to allow ships to cross, Iran can close the strait on a dime, and Israel can destroy any peace deal at any moment since they are also being ruled by an unstable geriatric.
He's got 2-3 weeks before the inventory crunch rapidly drives up prices. If Americans are paying $5-$6 a gallon over the Summer months the GOP will get curb stomped in November.
And there's a bill to be paid for the artificial depression of oil prices that'll take years to square. All of those SPRs have to be refilled.
I'm not sure who is playing Trump more, Iran or Israel. Israel clearly does not want any kind of peace. And looking at it strictly from Israel's perspective, they may be right at this point. Israel wants to keep bombing Iran and Hezbollah, and it they can get the U.S. to use its pilots, planes and munitions to do it, all the better for Israel. Iran's leadership is still pretty crazy, too. But this endless war is doing the U.S. little good. It is doing Trump and congressional Republicans even less good than that. The American public very correctly views this Iran war as Trump's war, and the longer it goes on, the worse it gets for Trump and congressional Republicans. Can anyone honestly say that an end to it is in sight?
Good article in Bloomberg today on why crude has not yet hit $200 yet.
US has increased supply also
Plus
"One of the biggest surprises for the oil market has been China, the world’s largest importer. It slashed inbound shipments by almost 40% in May compared to last year’s average, according to Vortexa Ltd. The reduction is enough to offset anywhere between a third and a fifth of the barrels lost to the war, depending on the estimates used."
Will we end up somehow caught in some kind of bailout that further exacerbates US debt?
Israel’s economy has faced severe financial strain and significant contractions due to the extended multi-front conflicts. While the Bank of Israel reported cumulative war-related costs exceeding $138 billion, and GDP shrank by an annualized 3.3% in early 2026, the crisis has driven up defense budgets, widened the budget deficit, and strained specific sectors like tourism, agriculture, and construction
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US production is up a little, but long term we aren't seeing a large uptick in production. This is a tweak. It's gonna get super tight in a hurry unless the Straits are opened in 2-3 weeks. Fungible commodities ripple across the world economy in a hurry. Even if there is enough supply in the US, the pressure will be on the oil companies to maximize their profits. There won't be a home country discount.
Imagine thinking Trump is an alpha male and in one day having to watch him storm off stage like a baby and then grovel and beg Israel not to attack Iran back. It’s so embarrassing.
Where the Argentina heavy crude enter the picture
U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) refinery capacity utilization is currently tracking near historic highs, hovering between 95% and 98%. This outpaces the region's 5-year seasonal average (~82%) as facilities—including the largest U.S. plants like Motiva Port Arthur and Marathon Galveston Bay—maximize throughput to capitalize on strong export demand
And they better pray a hurricane does not hit the Gulf Coast. A refinery getting shut down will be disastrous since the inventories are so low
And Bibi
Smack yourself if you voted for this in 2024.
well Trump has been saying it's almost over for about 3months now...
I posted earlier in the week or week prior quotes from the CEOs of Exxon and chevron. They project $150/barrel or so some weeks from now. I imagine there is only so much China can do to limit its use of petroleum products. They had reserves that they are burning through as we speak. How long will that last…no idea, but I expect the big energy CEOs know what they are talking about and have forecasted a larger supply crunch coming.
Even if the war ended today we would have months of continued high prices and disruption. And the war ain’t ending today.
Trump math is abstract
You can only run at that level for so long before something breaks or you must slow down for maintenance,
You mentioned a key point, strong export demand. There is only so much left to squeeze out, especially when it comes to refining. The product will go to whoever pays the most for it. Gulf capacity is down. Ukraine is hammering Russian facilities. An accident at a major US facility, a major hurricane, or God forbid a terrorist attack on a US facility/ies... That hopefully is a real fear that is keeping Kash Patel and Markwayne Mullin up at night.
And not attending his son’s wedding.
Yeah, Donald John “Wayne” is a real bad ***…in cosplay art.
I’m convinced Trump actually sees himself as resembling those cosplay photos. Why the hell else would President Cankles McTACO B*tch Tits call someone else “piggy”?
It cracks me up how triggered he gets by female reporters.
I got the feeling the execs were getting out ahead of the bad news, and hoping to provide some cover. These guys know words matter, and never say anything off the cuff. It has the potential to get really bad, really fast, and they want it on record they warned of surging prices. I'm sure they are anticipating getting called in front of Congress and being blasted for letting prices rise.
Yeah, Donald John “Wayne” is a real bad ***…in cosplay art.
I’m convinced Trump actually sees himself as resembling those cosplay photos. Why the hell else would President Cankles McTACO B*tch Tits call someone else “piggy”?
It cracks me up how triggered he gets by female reporters.
I hear this take a lot and I just don’t buy it, at least as far as my definition of “crushed” is concerned. How many seats in the Senate do you expect to flip to Team Blue? The House?
Do I think Democrats will do well in November? Of course. This Trump/MAGA sh*t show is just going to continue to get worse. But let’s not pretend voters in this country will magically just get smarter. And as long as half the country continues to exist inside their Faux News bubble/echo chamber, not much is going to change in terms of representation in government.
In short, Democrats could flip the House blue. The Senate is still a long shot. My prediction is Ds will flip the House by a small majority and Rs will maintain control of the Senate by a razor thin margin. Prove me wrong.