ESPN Bracketology (as of Mar 14): IOWA projected as a 9 Seed. Bracket Matrix (as of Mar 13) has IOWA as a 9 seed (consensus of 121 bracketologists)

[Hawksfor3]

I would really hate to lose our next 2 games heading into the B1G Tournament, which is what is expected, of course.

The B1G likely gets 9 teams in the NCAA Tournament; IOWA might be the 9th team.

Here are the current projections for the B1G Tournament:

I don't like how Ohio State has passed us up where we now would have to play on Wednesday morning.

1. Michigan (19 - 1)

2. Nebraska (15 - 5)
Above Mich St and Illinois based on round-robin record (2-1).

3. Michigan State (15 - 5)
Above Illinois and below Nebraska based on round-robin record (1-1).

4. Illinois (15 - 5)
Below Nebraska and Mich St based on round-robin record (1-2).

5. Purdue (14 - 6)

6. Wisconsin (13 - 7)
Above UCLA based on head-to-head record (1-0).

7. UCLA (13 - 7)
8. Ohio State (12 - 8)
9. Iowa (10 - 10)
10. Indiana (9 - 11)

Click or tap on image ONCE or TWICE for LARGER view.

Wow. If this holds true, UCLA would probably match up with Indy in Indy. How happy would Micky be?

 

[Franisdaman]

It’s not overly complicated once you forget about focusing on one team and rather looking at the comparisons.

these last 4 teams in and first 4 out are dreadful. Mediocre resumes.

It will be interesting to see if a team not named Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn or Florida (the defending champs) wins the national championship.

 

[HawkBall23]

It will be interesting to see if a team not named Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn or Florida (the defending champs) wins the national championship.

Very doubtful.

Just like in football, follow the money.

 

[IowaCityLit]

Very doubtful.

Just like in football, follow the money.

You give me one of those teams vs the field and I’m easily taking one of those teams.

 

[Palmerhawk]

This era looks to be way more top heavy than last couple of decades.
The bluebloods dominated blue chip recruiting but now they plugs any weaknesses with vets to go along with one and done kids

# 1 seeds lost sometimes before ff. Now probably just occasional loss to a #2 seed.

Kansas could get hot .still like illini and Houston as possibilities.
But, not real likely.
They keep saying ratings are up so fans like this.
Takes some of the joy outta the dance to know that big money will usually win

When will tv ratings drop enough to signal fan discontent?

 

[HawkBall23]

This era looks to be way more top heavy than last couple of decades.
The bluebloods dominated blue chip recruiting but now they plugs any weaknesses with vets to go along with one and done kids

They keep saying ratings are up so fans like this.
Takes some of the joy outta the dance to know that big money will usually win

When will tv ratings drop enough to signal fan discontent?

I'm only one person, but my NCAAT interest mostly revolves around Iowa.

I'm "in" only as long as they are.

When they have a bad season and don't have any shot, like last season, I pretty much forget the NCAAT is even happening.


Only reason I watched all of 2 games last season was to watch the near-future head coach (& now knowingly a big portion of that team) in Drake's two games.

 

[Franisdaman]

You give me one of those teams vs the field and I’m easily taking one of those teams.

I only threw in #5 Florida (with Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn) because the Gators are playing really well right now. Florida (24-6, 15-2) is cruising to the SEC regular season title.

 

[Franisdaman]

Florida (24-6) hasn't lost since January 24 and has won 10 in a row.

Their 6 losses:

Arizona 93-87 Florida (Nov 3, 2025) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Arizona Wildcats vs. Florida Gators NCAAM game, final score 93-87, from November 3, 2025 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

TCU 84-80 Florida (Nov 27, 2025) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the TCU Horned Frogs vs. Florida Gators NCAAM game, final score 84-80, from November 27, 2025 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

Duke 67-66 Florida (Dec 2, 2025) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida Gators NCAAM game, final score 67-66, from December 2, 2025 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

UConn 77-73 Florida (Dec 9, 2025) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the UConn Huskies vs. Florida Gators NCAAM game, final score 77-73, from December 9, 2025 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

Missouri 76-74 Florida (Jan 3, 2026) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Missouri Tigers vs. Florida Gators NCAAM game, final score 76-74, from January 3, 2026 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

Auburn 76-67 Florida (Jan 24, 2026) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Auburn Tigers vs. Florida Gators NCAAM game, final score 76-67, from January 24, 2026 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

 

[BigOHawk1]

lol very true.

losing out and I still think they are a 9 seed.

First round games two weeks from today!

 

[IowaCityLit]

I only threw in #5 Florida (with Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn) because the Gators are playing really well right now. Florida (24-6, 15-2) is cruising to the SEC regular season title.

Agree. I think Florida and the other 3 are actually a step above UCONn. I’d probably take those 4 vs the field.

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[fivecardstud14]

I'm only one person, but my NCAAT interest mostly revolves around Iowa.

I'm "in" only as long as they are.

When they have a bad season and don't have any shot, like last season, I pretty much forget the NCAAT is even happening.


Only reason I watched all of 2 games last season was to watch the near-future head coach (& now knowingly a big portion of that team) in Drake's two games.

Why do you hate basketball?

 

[HawkBall23]

Why do you hate basketball?

I've grown out of my "sports 24/7/365" phase.

I only truly care about Iowa athletics in college semi-pro and Chicago in professional sports.

And, of course, the USA on the international levels of sports.

 

[HawkeyeGenius]

Does Iowa make the tournament if they lose the next two?

 

[BigOHawk1]

Does Iowa make the tournament if they lose the next two?

Yes. No doubt

 

[IowaCityLit]

Yes. No doubt

Iowa is a lock. Pay attention to what’s happening outside of Iowa City. Question is whether losing out drops them to a 10. I don’t think it will.

 

[Franisdaman]

March 6, 2026 Update:

10 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

ESPN has #9 seed IOWA vs #8 seed St. Louis with the winner playing the winner of #1 UConn/#16 Tenn State or Long Island.

Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan............(2nd Overall Seed)
2 Illinois
2 Michigan State
3 Nebraska
3 Purdue
6 Wisconsin
9 IOWA
9 UCLA.....

10 Ohio State............(1 of LAST 4 Byes)

11 Indiana...................... (1 of LAST 4 TEAMS IN)


Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
N/A


Link to the March 6, 2026 ESPN Bracket:

Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape

The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.

www.espn.com

Bracket Matrix (as of March 5) has IOWA as a 9 seed.

When the brackets from 89 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered a 9 seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[Franisdaman]

8 is our projected seed.

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[Hawksfor3]

8 is our projected seed.

Why is the emoji gritting his teeth?

 

[83Hawk]

With Drake’s upset of Belmont, could the Valley get 2 teams in, one of which is a bid stealer?

 

[Ozzie89]

With Drake’s upset of Belmont, could the Valley get 2 teams in, one of which is a bid stealer?

no. 1 bid league

 

[HawkeyeGenius]

Lunardi dropped Iowa to a 10 vs 7 Kentucky. Iowa is NOT last four byes or last four in. So in his field, at least eight below Iowa.

 

[OnlyTheObscure]

With Drake’s upset of Belmont, could the Valley get 2 teams in, one of which is a bid stealer?

Those days are gone to the most part. Every non power league is a one bid league and there will be very few exceptions.

 

[Franisdaman]

March 9, 2026 Update:

9 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

ESPN has #10 seed IOWA vs #7 seed Kentucky with the winner playing the winner of #2 UConn/#15 Merrimack.

Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan............(2nd Overall Seed)
2 Illinois
2 Michigan State
3 Nebraska
3 Purdue
6 Wisconsin
8 UCLA
9 Ohio State
10 IOWA.....................


Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
Indiana.....................(1st Team OUT)


Link to the March 9, 2026 ESPN Bracket:

Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape

The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.

www.espn.com

Bracket Matrix (as of March 8) has IOWA as a 9 seed.

When the brackets from 79 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered a 9 seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

 

[83Hawk]

March 9, 2026 Update:

9 B1G teams, including IOWA, are currently projected by ESPN to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

ESPN has #10 seed IOWA vs #7 seed Kentucky with the winner playing the winner of #2 UConn/#15 Merrimack.

Seed/B1G Team:
1 Michigan............(2nd Overall Seed)
2 Illinois
2 Michigan State
3 Nebraska
3 Purdue
6 Wisconsin
8 UCLA
9 Ohio State
10 IOWA.....................


Other B1G Teams on the Outside, Looking in:
Indiana.....................(1st Team OUT)


Link to the March 9, 2026 ESPN Bracket:

Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape

The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.

www.espn.com

Bracket Matrix (as of March 8) has IOWA as a 9 seed.

When the brackets from 79 bracketologists are combined, Iowa is considered a 9 seed.

Link: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

If Iowa loses their first BTT game they don’t deserve to be in the NCAA tournament.

 

[IowaCityLit]

If Iowa loses their first BTT game they don’t deserve to be in the NCAA tournament.

Yea they do. Easily. Dont look at them in a vacuum. It’s all a comparison.

They are a lock.

 

[TampaHawkFan]

Yea they do. Easily. Dont look at them in a vacuum. It’s all a comparison.

They are a lock.

I think so, too. If Iowa somehow gets left out, I think that would be a shock to every bracketologist out there.

 

[gamedayron]

Iowa men won't win another game this season and will be a 100 seed i hear

 

[gamedayron]

I mean 10 how do i edit????

 

[TampaHawkFan]

I mean 10 how do i edit????

There should be an edit button on your post

 

[83Hawk]

Yea they do. Easily. Dont look at them in a vacuum. It’s all a comparison.

They are a lock.

They may or may not be a lock. Doesn’t mean they deserve to be in. In my opinion (for what it’s worth-which is nothing) I don’t think Iowa deserves to be in based on how they finished the season (if they lose their BTT game).

Sure…they will probably get in and be one and done. Still a good accomplishment for a first year Big Ten coach with a roster of mid major players. That’s better than I thought they would do. Better to be in than out!

 

[Max Rebo]

They may or may not be a lock. Doesn’t mean they deserve to be in. In my opinion (for what it’s worth-which is nothing) I don’t think Iowa deserves to be in based on how they finished the season (if they lose their BTT game).

Sure…they will probably get in and be one and done. Still a good accomplishment for a first year Big Ten coach with a roster of mid major players. That’s better than I thought they would do. Better to be in than out!

I suppose the question, then, is which should be weighted higher -- total body of work, or performance down the stretch?

I believe the committee uses total body of work. That said, it's not wrong to have the opinion that performance down the stretch should be more strongly considered. (I think maybe it was at one time?)

 

[83Hawk]

I suppose the question, then, is which should be weighted higher -- total body of work, or performance down the stretch?

I believe the committee uses total body of work. That said, it's not wrong to have the opinion that performance down the stretch should be more strongly considered. (I think maybe it was at one time?)

In the “old” days, the committee would sometimes use performance down the stretch, and sometimes body of work. Usually no rhyme or reason…they would just use whatever excuse they wanted as to why some teams got in and some didn’t.

 

[Max Rebo]

In the “old” days, the committee would sometimes use performance down the stretch, and sometimes body of work. Usually no rhyme or reason…they would just use whatever excuse they wanted as to why some teams got in and some didn’t.

I remember bracketologists using the "last 10 games" metric. The degree to which that really mattered, I can't say.

 

[HawkAlum2002]

Unless you lost a key player midseason and they won't be back for the rest of the year then performance down the stretch isn't that relevant especially with the schedules for 18 team leagues being what they are. You can't punish a team for how they play down the stretch if the hardest league games just happened to be scheduled near the end of the year. If we played Michigan in December and lost, but then beat someone this past week instead, it isn't because the team was actually better later in the year. When you played everybody twice in both halves of the season, then you could legitimately judge that easier.

 

[HawkeyeGenius]

I remember bracketologists using the "last 10 games" metric. The degree to which that really mattered, I can't say.

It matters much less, just like conference record. Conference record is still more important.

Lunardi has at least eight at-large teams below Iowa. I hope Iowa wins on Wednesday, but of course Oregon has Bittle back and is playing well. It'd put any of this debate to rest.