Over the next few weeks, keep your eyes on the Middle East

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
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I cannot imagine a scenario where this could happen that is consistent with the video footage. An AAMRAM would have lit up the RWR and they’d have taken evasive action instead of flying straight and level. A sidewinder would have to be close enough that the Hornet pilot would have to be an idiot to miss the unmistakeable shape of an Eagle.
But that's what happened. It was a BVR engagement. There were other factors involved as well.
 

Biggunz

Heisman
Sep 4, 2003
3,029
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But that's what happened. It was a BVR engagement. There were other factors involved as well.
So many questions....

1) How did the Strike Eagles not get a lock notification? F/A-18s now capable of TWS locking multiple targets?
2) When the AMRAAMS switched to terminal guidance on their own radars, the Strike Eagles would have gotten a missile launch warning, and the expected response would be aggressive defending....these guys appeared to be flying straight and level when they were hit.
3) If the F/A-18 provided missile guidance via data link, the same data link would have identified he was locking up friendlies.
 

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,785
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Depends how you define "legit military threat." We were always going to cripple them. We have expended way more of our ordinance than intended. The Straight of Hormuz remains impassible. The Iranis have not come to the table per whatever plan our administration developed.

On the macro scale, we have alienated allies. We have lost two THAAD systems and have depleted our interceptor and Tomahawk inventories such that defense contractors are holding emergency meetings in DC today. Likely best case scenario is Khamenei takes power. Worst case is a lawless ISIS scenario. All of this because this administration decided to tear up the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that was working.
We've haven't expended more ordinance than intended.
The SOH is passable. Insurance companies just won't insure merchant vessels at this time to pass through it.
Alienated what allies? Our GCC partners who hate Iran?
We lost two THAAD systems? I'll have to tell that to them because they're still working. BTW the US only has two THAAD's in the AOR: and one's in Israel. Stop believing Iranian tweets.
JCPOA was an absolute disaster and funded Iran's rapid pace to build a bomb and buy SA-400's.
 

ChuckChuck

Junior
Jul 7, 2025
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We've haven't expended more ordinance than intended.
The SOH is passable. Insurance companies just won't insure merchant vessels at this time to pass through it.
Alienated what allies? Our GCC partners who hate Iran?
We lost two THAAD systems? I'll have to tell that to them because they're still working. BTW the US only has two THAAD's in the AOR: and one's in Israel. Stop believing Iranian tweets.
JCPOA was an absolute disaster and funded Iran's rapid pace to build a bomb and buy SA-400's.
They won't insure because its not secure. That's why Trump is discussing escorting ships through with our Navy.
 

GDead_Tiger

Heisman
Dec 7, 2021
13,184
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According to AL-Monitor, Masoud Barzani has given the greenlight/is no longer opposed, to Kurdish militias in Iraq crossing the border into Iran
 
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PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
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Yeah “keep airstriking leaders until we find one we like” isn’t a serious plan but I think that’s as far as we’ve gotten here. The fact that State didn’t have pathways established to evacuate US citizens from the region when the obvious conflict expansion happened is telling.
Why is it State's responsibilty to evacuate US citizens from the region? It's not. If you are there, it's on you to get out of there.
 

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
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so a not for profit volunteered ran agency is reporting this...gotcha...
:LOL: Right there with you. So 100 children have been hanging around SA sites, BMOA's, military airfields, naval ports, CDCM launch sites, mine storage facilities etc etc etc. Sure.

Of those "Civilians" killed how many were nuke, scientist or contactors working on military bases?

These are soccer mom's being killed.
 

GDead_Tiger

Heisman
Dec 7, 2021
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Maersk and Cosco (Chinese shipping line) have shutdown shipments into and out of the region now. The Chinese one is interesting. Wonder if that means Iran is playing hardball with China over aid for oil
 

GDead_Tiger

Heisman
Dec 7, 2021
13,184
34,714
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:LOL: Right there with you. So 100 children have been hanging around SA sites, BMOA's, military airfields, naval ports, CDCM launch sites, mine storage facilities etc etc etc. Sure.

Of those "Civilians" killed how many were nuke, scientist or contactors working on military bases?

These are soccer mom's being killed.
Well there was that school that was blown up and Israel was targeting opposition leaders under house arrest.

But yes, make light of children being killed.
 

Dungeon09

Heisman
Dec 1, 2021
6,925
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Why is it State's responsibilty to evacuate US citizens from the region? It's not. If you are there, it's on you to get out of there.
Because the State Department has a legal obligation to advise and protect, to the extent feasible, US citizens abroad. UAE and Oman specifically were level 2 (the same classification as France and the UK) until 2+ days after strikes began and there are a substantial number of Americans there who are stuck due to the total lack of warning and current air travel situation in the region.
 

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,785
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They won't insure because its not secure. That's why Trump is discussing escorting ships through with our Navy.
It's not secure because Iran has randomly shot at stuff early in the crisis. They sunk their own dang boat. The key is the SOH isn't mined.
 
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DividedPi

All-Conference
Nov 23, 2016
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Its seems like people can't decide between "Iran is not a realistic military threat to the US or Israel" and "we had to do this because Iran is an imminent military threat to the US and Israel". Not necessarily just talking about posters in this thread, although I've seen it here too.

It's the same with the nukes. Supposedly we set them back decades in June but had to strike now because they are moments away from having a nuke again all of a sudden.

It all seems more like Trump's typical erratic negotiation tactics where he makes a big and surprising move and then sees how the other side reacts to it. Sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't. We've seen similar stuff with tariffs and in other areas. To be fair I think his erratic nature can benefit him quite a bit in negotiations but it often doesn't seem like he's considering the long game.

I understand we have plans on plans on plans for every possible scenario inside the walls of the pentagon and I believe they are likely the best made war plans in the world. No doubt there. But what all those plans for Iran seem to lack is a point or a goal. Are we just bombing Iran because we can? Because Israel asked us to? We are expending massive amounts of capital, both human and financial on this in addition to upsetting global markets. For what? What's the point here?
 

P. Marlowe

Heisman
Dec 7, 2009
14,001
25,751
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Maersk and Cosco (Chinese shipping line) have shutdown shipments into and out of the region now. The Chinese one is interesting. Wonder if that means Iran is playing hardball with China over aid for oil

Iran can’t afford to strong arm the country that accounts for basically 90% of their oil exports. I imagine it simply means that their insurers told them to avoid it.
 

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,785
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Because the State Department has a legal obligation to advise and protect, to the extent feasible, US citizens abroad. UAE and Oman specifically were level 2 (the same classification as France and the UK) until 2+ days after strikes began and there are a substantial number of Americans there who are stuck due to the total lack of warning and current air travel situation in the region.
While the U.S. Department of State considers the protection of U.S. citizens abroad its "highest priority," it does not have a legally enforceable statuaory obligation to protect of evacute them. Instead of an affirmative duty to protect, the government primarily acts in an advisory capacity, issuing Travel Advisories and Security Alerts to help citizens make informed decisions.

As a guy who planned a lot of NEO's, if you are aboard, it's your responsibility to get out. If the State Department orders an evacuation, you will get a ticket to the nearest spot away from trouble. It's up to you to get the rest of the way home. State will then send you a bill for the travel they arranged for your safety.
 

GDead_Tiger

Heisman
Dec 7, 2021
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1. You are believing Iranian reports? If they were true, they'd shown the bodies to garner sympathy.
2. Why are your leaders meeting next to a school?
The opposition leaders were/are opposed to the regime and confined to house arrest. They did show the bodies, they had a big public funeral for the girls that got blown up at their school
 

PawsFan

Heisman
Dec 17, 2019
14,785
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So ... what you are saying is ... that it is not secure.
So you own a $600 million tanker and can't get it insured. Will you take the risk as a businessman? Not likely. It's prudent to wait until it's clear there isn't a threat. It doesn't mean the SOH can't be navigated.
 
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GDead_Tiger

Heisman
Dec 7, 2021
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So you own a $600 million tanker and can't get it insured. Will you take the risk as a businessman? Not likely. It's prudent to wait until it's clear there isn't a threat. It doesn't mean the SOH can't be navigated.
Yeah Iran hasn’t mined the SOH but they’re heavily limiting shipping through it
 
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Biggunz

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Sep 4, 2003
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@HunterPKP I’ve been very reluctant to think those F15Es were intentionally shot down, but as details emerge, it seems more and more likely.

It appears now that the F/A-18 was within VR and sent sidewinders up the tailpipes, which explains all three jets being hit from rear aspect.

What is unclear is how the hornet pilot could have possibly confused three jets each the size of a tennis court for the enemy, within clear enough sight to achieve tone. It’s hard to avoid concluding that it was intentional.

Mover and Gonky are a couple of my favorite fighter pilot YouTubers:
 

kidmike41

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Dec 29, 2005
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@HunterPKP I’ve been very reluctant to think those F15Es were intentionally shot down, but as details emerge, it seems more and more likely.

It appears now that the F/A-18 was within VR and sent sidewinders up the tailpipes, which explains all three jets being hit from rear aspect.

What is unclear is how the hornet pilot could have possibly confused three jets each the size of a tennis court for the enemy, within clear enough sight to achieve tone. It’s hard to avoid concluding that it was intentional.

Mover and Gonky are a couple of my favorite fighter pilot YouTubers:

Thanks for sharing that
 
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P. Marlowe

Heisman
Dec 7, 2009
14,001
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@HunterPKP I’ve been very reluctant to think those F15Es were intentionally shot down, but as details emerge, it seems more and more likely.

It appears now that the F/A-18 was within VR and sent sidewinders up the tailpipes, which explains all three jets being hit from rear aspect.

What is unclear is how the hornet pilot could have possibly confused three jets each the size of a tennis court for the enemy, within clear enough sight to achieve tone. It’s hard to avoid concluding that it was intentional.

Mover and Gonky are a couple of my favorite fighter pilot YouTubers:


Lemoine initially said it was SAMs.