Click the day/night tab and you'll get the proper amounts. It's a new feature I think and I was thinking they were insane too.
OT: Weekend snowstorm - historic blizzzard
- Thread starter Mikemarc
- Start date
raining near the Wayne/Pompton border. I'm heading out for bagels
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
600 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...
.A major winter storm is expected to develop today, impacting the
region with very heavy, crippling snowfall and areas of blizzard
conditions. Precipitation will develop today, changing to all snow
this afternoon and evening. The most severe conditions and heaviest
snowfall will occur tonight, with snow gradually tapering off during
the daytime Monday. Record breaking snowfall totals are possible.
NJZ001-007>010-012-015-230000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-
Including the cities of Somerville, Newton, Flemington,
Washington, Trenton, New Brunswick, and Morristown
600 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
between 18 and 25 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest New Jersey.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in isolated
power outages.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per
hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts and significant drifting of
snow possible.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
600 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...
.A major winter storm is expected to develop today, impacting the
region with very heavy, crippling snowfall and areas of blizzard
conditions. Precipitation will develop today, changing to all snow
this afternoon and evening. The most severe conditions and heaviest
snowfall will occur tonight, with snow gradually tapering off during
the daytime Monday. Record breaking snowfall totals are possible.
NJZ001-007>010-012-015-230000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1100Z-260223T2300Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-
Including the cities of Somerville, Newton, Flemington,
Washington, Trenton, New Brunswick, and Morristown
600 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026
...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
between 18 and 25 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest New Jersey.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Monday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions will impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
Gusty winds could bring down tree branches and result in isolated
power outages.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could exceed 2 inches per
hour. Locally higher snowfall amounts and significant drifting of
snow possible.
What did the 6am models say. WTF is going on. We get updates every model run for a week and we get to the big day and Bac and Numbers go silent. It’s almost 9am and still waiting. Silly
Panic and run. Here is the update, lots of snow.
The HRRR and SREF did back off a little bit but still show 12+ for just about everyone. NAM getting ready soon for a run
I changed my flight to 11am. Saying on time so I could get out. But I’m going to bail. I can’t leave my family home stuck in 2 ft of snow.
Best case scenario 8-12 with spots to 16. Thats a 20% chance
Almost worst case scenario 20-26 with spots to 36. Thats a 20% chance
Biblical crippling case scenario 24-36 with spots to 40. Thats a 10% chance
Most likely scenario: 12-20 with spots to 28. Thats a 50% chance
Almost worst case scenario 20-26 with spots to 36. Thats a 20% chance
Biblical crippling case scenario 24-36 with spots to 40. Thats a 10% chance
Most likely scenario: 12-20 with spots to 28. Thats a 50% chance
Watching short term models now like HRRR and SREF. The HRRRs were backing off over some insaner runs so we shall see how that goes throughout the day
Its going to be about who gets in the deformation banding zones with relentless qpf and snow totals. There you will have the potential fir highest amounts. Currently its modelled in Monmouth/Ocean but at times its drifts NW historically. On the other side of banding will be some subsidence. Many feel that will create a sharp gradient in EPA. If the banding is further east perhaps some subsidence in Western Jersey
Its going to be about who gets in the deformation banding zones with relentless qpf and snow totals. There you will have the potential fir highest amounts. Currently its modelled in Monmouth/Ocean but at times its drifts NW historically. On the other side of banding will be some subsidence. Many feel that will create a sharp gradient in EPA. If the banding is further east perhaps some subsidence in Western Jersey
Lots of deer in the back field feeding early and long.
at what point do you have to worry about roof collapsesat what point do you have to worry about roof collapses
Just cloudy here imby. We have had some light rain earlier. Scattered light precip will continue northern oart of state before picking up in intensity after noon. More steady rain is entering south jersey and will eventually turn to snow as tge day progresses.
Definitely a little window between now and noon for everyone to stock up on things they need. This might be a 36-48 hour digout and you might not get back to the store til Wednesday
Definitely a little window between now and noon for everyone to stock up on things they need. This might be a 36-48 hour digout and you might not get back to the store til Wednesday
I'm in that deep red area. Haven't seen that in several years. Just praying the power stays on.
I love that its backing off a bit. It was becoming ridiculous. Signal is still there for a historic snowLatest NAM, they backed off a little but still have high amounts IMO
If so, I think I got the dumb ones. They're all out in the fields getting soaked eating pasture and the chickens are free ranging. Nighttime feeding we'll lock them all up.
That's why it was so important and yesterday was a Godsend to get all the barns and coops cleaned out. Because they'll be stuck in there until we can get some snow moved. When we can't get to one of the mulch piles, (couldn't for weeks) we just have to pile sh*t high.
are you kidding me...holy smokes.Already snowing here in northern NJ.
They upped the snow totals significantly on the maps early this morning: we're now forecast for over 20 inches.
Its a good warning...the calls for 18-24 into PA are very shaky
Yes, but it would be nice with some more non-weenie talk for more people to understand. Maybe their can be subtitles for non-weenies.
And still hoping it does not bury the shore.
I stopped praying and installed a whole house back up generator
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https://www.on3.com/boards/threads/ot-weekend-snowstorm-historic-blizzzard.8688503/post-181824417
Ok, slept in and just caught up. Storm is just starting. so enjoy the snow if you can, but be safe out there and off the roads by 2 pm or so. Haven't even looked at this thread, so the graphics below may be a repeat, but I like having them together in one place.
Won't be too bad before 2 pm or so, with most of the snow melting (and rain south of 276/195 for a bit), but then intensity picks up and the column cools to 32F by 4-5 pm for most and accumulation should pick up and from then on boom! Bombogenesis (>24 mbar pressure drop in 24 hrs) will be easily attained with a pressure drop of more than 30 mbar in 24 hrs (storm will have a Cat 2 hurricane pressure, but not cat 2 winds as it's such a large storm - but wind gusts will be up to 40-50 mph for NW areas and 95, so blizzard warnings are up even there (all the way to the EPA counties bordering the Delaware River, as well as at the coast, obviously, where winds should be gusting to 50-60 mph at the DE/NJ/NYC/LI coasts. The hourly graphic below is for New Brunwsick, but it generally applies to most locations in the Philly-NJ-NYC area I post about and most here are interested in.
The snowfall amounts are in 2 camps with 12-18" for 95 in most of the global models and 18-30" for most of the mesoscale/high resolution models (and the GFS/NBM, model blend), but the NWS clearly is leaning towards the heavier snow models as their latest map bumped up snowfall forecasts again, to 18-24" for 95 and 24-30" for coastal areas (and inland a bit from there) and 12-18" for areas well NW of 95. See the NWS map below and the NBM map below, as the NWS relies heavily on the model blend for their forecasts. But so far the actual storm evolution is looking more like the high end forecasts with all of the elements of an historic storm looking more likely. The NWS forecast for my house is now 22.3" and my prediction last night was 18.7", but I'm going to up that to 20.2" based on the bumps up and observations so far, although I still think the NWS is a bit high on their numbers. Also, the latest 12Z models have shown a bit of a decrease in snowfall across the board, especially NW of 95 - not sure if the NWS will cut back amounts or not this late in the game.
A few more comments. This will be a heavy wet snow for the first 1/3 of the storm, but should get somewhat drier but still very heavy for the rest of the storm. Snow ratios should then be <10:1 early on, but should become greater for the 2nd half of the storm (maybe 12-15:1 as nice dendrite formation in the DGZ, the dendritic growth zone 10,000+ feet up, will occur), although that could be kept down a bit by crystal breakage in the high winds as snow descends. With potential for a fair amount of the snow sticking to trees and winds ramping up after dark, there's a decent potential of downed branches/trees and power outages overnight. In addition minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected, especially at the high tides. Fortunately, we're not going into a record deep freeze for 3 weeks after the storm, so cleanup will be much easier than 1/25 and natural melting will be far faster. Ok, time to start watching the sky and the radar. Links to the warnings is below and to the AmericanWx thread on this.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=blizzard%20warning
https://www.americanwx.com/.../62604-the.../page/174/
Ok, slept in and just caught up. Storm is just starting. so enjoy the snow if you can, but be safe out there and off the roads by 2 pm or so. Haven't even looked at this thread, so the graphics below may be a repeat, but I like having them together in one place.
Won't be too bad before 2 pm or so, with most of the snow melting (and rain south of 276/195 for a bit), but then intensity picks up and the column cools to 32F by 4-5 pm for most and accumulation should pick up and from then on boom! Bombogenesis (>24 mbar pressure drop in 24 hrs) will be easily attained with a pressure drop of more than 30 mbar in 24 hrs (storm will have a Cat 2 hurricane pressure, but not cat 2 winds as it's such a large storm - but wind gusts will be up to 40-50 mph for NW areas and 95, so blizzard warnings are up even there (all the way to the EPA counties bordering the Delaware River, as well as at the coast, obviously, where winds should be gusting to 50-60 mph at the DE/NJ/NYC/LI coasts. The hourly graphic below is for New Brunwsick, but it generally applies to most locations in the Philly-NJ-NYC area I post about and most here are interested in.
The snowfall amounts are in 2 camps with 12-18" for 95 in most of the global models and 18-30" for most of the mesoscale/high resolution models (and the GFS/NBM, model blend), but the NWS clearly is leaning towards the heavier snow models as their latest map bumped up snowfall forecasts again, to 18-24" for 95 and 24-30" for coastal areas (and inland a bit from there) and 12-18" for areas well NW of 95. See the NWS map below and the NBM map below, as the NWS relies heavily on the model blend for their forecasts. But so far the actual storm evolution is looking more like the high end forecasts with all of the elements of an historic storm looking more likely. The NWS forecast for my house is now 22.3" and my prediction last night was 18.7", but I'm going to up that to 20.2" based on the bumps up and observations so far, although I still think the NWS is a bit high on their numbers. Also, the latest 12Z models have shown a bit of a decrease in snowfall across the board, especially NW of 95 - not sure if the NWS will cut back amounts or not this late in the game.
A few more comments. This will be a heavy wet snow for the first 1/3 of the storm, but should get somewhat drier but still very heavy for the rest of the storm. Snow ratios should then be <10:1 early on, but should become greater for the 2nd half of the storm (maybe 12-15:1 as nice dendrite formation in the DGZ, the dendritic growth zone 10,000+ feet up, will occur), although that could be kept down a bit by crystal breakage in the high winds as snow descends. With potential for a fair amount of the snow sticking to trees and winds ramping up after dark, there's a decent potential of downed branches/trees and power outages overnight. In addition minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected, especially at the high tides. Fortunately, we're not going into a record deep freeze for 3 weeks after the storm, so cleanup will be much easier than 1/25 and natural melting will be far faster. Ok, time to start watching the sky and the radar. Links to the warnings is below and to the AmericanWx thread on this.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=blizzard%20warning
https://www.americanwx.com/.../62604-the.../page/174/
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I'll be there at noon tomorrow, if you supply the drinks and the punk rock.
GFS shifted east and cut totals by a decent amount. Starting to see some weenie meltdown on AmericanWx
.thumb.png.1520d76799b0ef76bc0b9666ca280f6b.png)
We largely agree, as I think the NWS is a bit on the high side. Except I'd switch the "best" and "worst" descriptions, lol.
whoa...gfs....yes its late in the game just cut totals way back..wow....now its not a meso like nam so take that for what its worth
yeah verbatim its 8-14 northwest of 95 and 14-22 southeast of thereGFS shifted east and cut totals by a decent amount. Starting to see some weenie meltdown on AmericanWx
so almost all the models are shifting a bit east..gfs, nam..it means those areas in PA are really going to be tough to meet what the NWS is forecasting..gfs also ends the storm around mid morning
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