Over/under 1.5 wins for Pat Fitzgerald at Michigan State against Northwestern

[NU'06er]

Asked this in another thread, but may as well make it a poll.

With Northwestern playing Sparty in 2026 and 2027, but potentially not seeing them again until 2030 (depending on whether the Big Ten repeats its current 4-year conference schedule rotation), does Pat Fitzgerald win 2 games against his former school before he departs East Lansing?

 

[AdamOnFirst]

I voted under, but I wouldn’t put money on it. This is a good line

 

[NU'06er]

Just curious if adding Chiles from East Lansing to the "revenge game" dynamic changes anyone's votes (or not really since it's just one player)...

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Just curious if adding Chiles from East Lansing to the "revenge game" dynamic changes anyone's votes (or not really since it's just one player)...

Uh, I'd say the odds have shifted slightly to the under, only because our strong offseason so far makes it less likely we lose both of the next two years. After that, it's just "how long does Fitz survive at MSU."

 

[ThatadultfromHolland]

To me this is just how long will Fitz be MSU’s HC. Good line.

 

[GECat2]

How has MSU done in the portal?

 

[JustGary]

To me this is just how long will Fitz be MSU’s HC. Good line.

It also depends if the hiring of Chip Kelly dramatically changes the future of Our program. If we become very successful with an explosive offense and stingy defense, that may carry for years even after Kelly departs.

 

[CatManTrue]

How has MSU done in the portal?

They have signed a lot of players and improved at key positions.

But they took a step back in terms of QB talent unless their redshirt freshman QB takes a huge step forward.

I voted Under and will be surprised if Fitz lasts four seasons in East Lansing.

I also think NU will beat MSU in 2026.

Braun is a better HC than Fitz, and doesn’t float on Pat Ryan’s ancient biases.

 

[KramerCat91]

I think Fitz has more leeway to achieve sustained success at a basketball school so it's a close call for me.

 

[CatManTrue]

I think Fitz has more leeway to achieve sustained success at a basketball school so it's a close call for me.

Disagree. MSU’s fans have no loyalty to him and most were unhappy with the hire (assuming Reddit is a representative sample… FBOW ).

One really powerful booster wanted him because he expects an immedi

He has 2-3 years to turn them back to a winner and a 6-6 record in year 3 will not satisfy that school.

Dantonio had them in the Top 25 regularly and coached them into the playoffs a decade ago. If Fitz doesn’t do that quickly, they’ll chim with a cheaper buyout than the $30M Smith got - not that Fitz needs the money.

Go Cats.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

I think Fitz has more leeway to achieve sustained success at a basketball school so it's a close call for me.

Smith got shitcanned pretty fast. I think MSU is slightly on the unreasonable side of the spectrum because they’re a pretty low baseline program but a chunk of their fans expect Dantonio to walk back in

 

[Catreporter]

Notre Dame is their power5 nonconference opponent the next two seasons so that looks like two losses and the new Big Ten ain't the BIGWEST. I could see this going south in a hurry for Fitz. Counting on that quarterback who finished out the year is a big risk too. He didn't look like a game changer to me but I guess we will see.

 

[KramerCat91]

Disagree. MSU’s fans have no loyalty to him and most were unhappy with the hire (assuming Reddit is a representative sample… FBOW ).

One really powerful booster wanted him because he expects an immedi

He has 2-3 years to turn them back to a winner and a 6-6 record in year 3 will not satisfy that school.

Dantonio had them in the Top 25 regularly and coached them into the playoffs a decade ago. If Fitz doesn’t do that quickly, they’ll chim with a cheaper buyout than the $30M Smith got - not that Fitz needs the money.

Go Cats.

If that is what they want then hiring Fitz does not compute unless stabilizing the program and hiring a different coach is the real goal.

 

[Sheffielder]

From my perspective, the reaction to Fitz's hire was mixed...but I also think MSU has been running through coaches like water and now that it's become VERY normal to fire a coach in less than four years of their hire, I would not necessarily assume Sparty will be in it for the long haul if he's delivering 5 to 7-win seasons out of the gate.

As for predicting his record vs. NU...it's a coin toss. Indiana and Cignetti (and about 20 other programs) have proven that in the NIL era things can change for better or worse in a single season.

I will say this for Fitz: I was always impressed at how he targeted Iowa and got his players up for that game every year. I imagine he will paint a similar target on us, so if he does it becomes a question of whether his players for hire will buy into that same mentality.

 

[JustGary]

Notre Dame is their power5 nonconference opponent the next two seasons so that looks like two losses and the new Big Ten ain't the BIGWEST. I could see this going south in a hurry for Fitz. Counting on that quarterback who finished out the year is a big risk too. He didn't look like a game changer to me but I guess we will see.

I am not one who usually defends opposing QBs but I don’t understand why everyone seems to think Milojevic is a bad QB. Chiles (RS-Jr), completed 63% of his passes, averaged 10.8 yards/completion, had 10TD, and 3 INT for a 134 rating. Milojevic (RS-Fr) completed 64% of his passes, averaged 11.4 yards/completion, had 10TD and 3 INT for a 143 rating. The biggest difference is Chiles is a vastly superior runner while Milojevic stays in the pocket, so for a Chip Kelly offense, I definitely rather have Chiles. However, for a Nick Sheridan offense, Milojevic shows a lot of potential. Still, I can’t understand why people here keep putting down Milojevic whose passing stats were nearly identical to Chiles and vastly better than Preston Stone.

 

[CatManTrue]

I am not one who usually defends opposing QBs but I don’t understand why everyone seems to think Milojevic is a bad QB. Chiles (RS-Jr), completed 63% of his passes, averaged 10.8 yards/completion, had 10TD, and 3 INT for a 134 rating. Milojevic (RS-Fr) completed 64% of his passes, averaged 11.4 yards/completion, had 10TD and 3 INT for a 143 rating. The biggest difference is Chiles is a vastly superior runner while Milojevic stays in the pocket, so for a Chip Kelly offense, I definitely rather have Chiles. However, for a Nick Sheridan offense, Milojevic shows a lot of potential. Still, I can’t understand why people here keep putting down Milojevic whose passing stats were nearly identical to Chiles and vastly better than Preston Stone.

Check out his win-loss record. They were not competitive with either QB, but Chip Kelly should get the most out of Chiles.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I am not one who usually defends opposing QBs but I don’t understand why everyone seems to think Milojevic is a bad QB. Chiles (RS-Jr), completed 63% of his passes, averaged 10.8 yards/completion, had 10TD, and 3 INT for a 134 rating. Milojevic (RS-Fr) completed 64% of his passes, averaged 11.4 yards/completion, had 10TD and 3 INT for a 143 rating. The biggest difference is Chiles is a vastly superior runner while Milojevic stays in the pocket, so for a Chip Kelly offense, I definitely rather have Chiles. However, for a Nick Sheridan offense, Milojevic shows a lot of potential. Still, I can’t understand why people here keep putting down Milojevic whose passing stats were nearly identical to Chiles and vastly better than Preston Stone.

He plays for Fitz. It makes some feel better to say he sucks. Most of them haven’t watched him play a single game.

 

[katatonic2]

^ Talent-wise, may be a decent to good QB, but aside from a few, does anyone have much faith in Fitzgerald being able to develop a QB; and just as important, field an average, much less a good O-line?

 

[AdamOnFirst]

^ Talent-wise, may be a decent to good QB, but aside from a few, does anyone have much faith in Fitzgerald being able to develop a QB; and just as important, field an average, much less a good O-line?

Well we’ll see what his new OC does. Fielding a solid O line is a very different thing when you can fill gaps in the portal and your offense has balance and dynamism so they don’t need to dominate to march their one dimensional way down the field.

 

[katatonic2]

^ While it's true that NIL does change the equation, a lot is still due to coaching/evaluation.

Fitzgerald has a poor track history when it comes to O-line coaches and his new OC isn't exactly known for having physical O-line play.

 

[EvanstonCat]

^ While it's true that NIL does change the equation, a lot is still due to coaching/evaluation.

Fitzgerald has a poor track history when it comes to O-line coaches and his new OC isn't exactly known for having physical O-line play.

Not to mention an uninspiring QB coach hire.

 

[CatManTrue]

Not to mention an uninspiring QB coach hire.

Just wait until JON needs a job again and Fitz hires him as his DC or DB coach.

 

[NU'06er]

I promise not to keep resurrecting this thread repeatedly, but figured I'd do it at least once mid-spring and then late summer just to catch a different set of votes on the poll before it closes...

 

[WestCoastWildcat]

Smith got shitcanned pretty fast. I think MSU is slightly on the unreasonable side of the spectrum because they’re a pretty low baseline program but a chunk of their fans expect Dantonio to walk back in

Agree that MSU fan expectations are probably unreasonably high especially with the ton of money being thrown at the program. Some plus sides for Fitz like his BT background and prior success at NU but don’t see Fitz lasting his 5 year contract esp with his recent downtime from coaching he is behind the curve on the new environment. My guess he will be back entering the coaching portal within 3 years.

 

[CatManTrue]

Agree that MSU fan expectations are probably unreasonably high especially with the ton of money being thrown at the program. Some plus sides for Fitz like his BT background and prior success at NU but don’t see Fitz lasting his 5 year contract esp with his recent downtime from coaching he is behind the curve on the new environment. My guess he will be back entering the coaching portal within 3 years.

“Entering the coaching portal”? If he fails at Michigan State then I doubt anyone else will hire him.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Agree that MSU fan expectations are probably unreasonably high especially with the ton of money being thrown at the program. Some plus sides for Fitz like his BT background and prior success at NU but don’t see Fitz lasting his 5 year contract esp with his recent downtime from coaching he is behind the curve on the new environment. My guess he will be back entering the coaching portal within 3 years.

I’ll take that action. Over on 3 seasons?

 

[NU'06er]

I’ll take that action. Over on 3 seasons?

I feel like I'd take the over on 3 seasons as well. I don't know if it ends well for Fitz at MSU either, but I do think he's clearly at least going to be really motivated to stick it to his detractors as his newest chapter kicks off...

 

[WestCoastWildcat]

I feel like I'd take the over on 3 seasons as well. I don't know if it ends well for Fitz at MSU either, but I do think he's clearly at least going to be really motivated to stick it to his detractors as his newest chapter kicks off...

I think trajectory is a factor in Fitz’s chances of survival at MSU until the end of his 5 year contract. My sense is MSU fans expect immediate success with Fitz’s arrival but may be more patient if they see an arc of improvement. MSU alums are throwing big bucks at the program so they do will have the funds to buy good players. The BigTen competition is so fierce that it is going to be an uphill battle for Fitz to bring the MSU program back to the top.

 

[mickbula]

He won’t last long in e Lansing with 1-11 records

 

[AdamOnFirst]

I feel like I'd take the over on 3 seasons as well. I don't know if it ends well for Fitz at MSU either, but I do think he's clearly at least going to be really motivated to stick it to his detractors as his newest chapter kicks off...

I'd also take the over 3 - though 3.5 is closer odds - but I'm not sure I'd take the over on 5 and I definitely would take the under on 5.5.

 

[CatManTrue]

He won’t last long in e Lansing with 1-11 records

What about his 3-9 record in two of the prior three seasons?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I'd also take the over 3 - though 3.5 is closer odds - but I'm not sure I'd take the over on 5 and I definitely would take the under on 5.5.

So far, no one has took the under at 3. At least not willing to put anything on it.

 

[CatManTrue]

So far, no one has took the under at 3. At least not willing to put anything on it.

I would take the under because their quarterback situation got much worse.

What’s funny is that we won the Chiles-Fitz trade, and that may accelerate his exit even further.

The QB they retained didn’t look very good last season.

 

[NU'06er]

I might take the under at 4.5. Not at 3 though. That's betting that it's more likely he only coaches two seasons in East Lansing than four, and I think all he really has to do to at least get to Year 3 is have a better record in Year 2 than Year 1 to be able to make a growth argument...

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

I might take the under at 4.5. Not at 3 though. That's betting that it's more likely he only coaches two seasons in East Lansing than four, and I think all he really has to do to at least get to Year 3 is have a better record in Year 2 than Year 1 to be able to make a growth argument...

Sparty picked 17 out of 18 this season in latest On3 ranking. Cats 13. No one is expecting much this season.

 

[CatManTrue]

I might take the under at 4.5. Not at 3 though. That's betting that it's more likely he only coaches two seasons in East Lansing than four, and I think all he really has to do to at least get to Year 3 is have a better record in Year 2 than Year 1 to be able to make a growth argument...

His contract is very cheap and easy to buyout.

He realistically has to win or show MAJOR improvement by Year 2. If it looks like they’re trending down, they will pull the trigger very quickly and find a new coach.

If he gets to 7 wins then he automatically gets another year added to his contract.

Unfortunately, their 2027 schedule is BRUTAL - even worse than ours this year as they play OSU, Michigan, Indiana, and Notre Dame amongst us and many others.

2027 Michigan State Football Schedule | FBSchedules.com

View the 2027 Michigan State Football Schedule at FBSchedules.com. The Spartans football schedule includes opponents, date, time, and TV.

fbschedules.com

My popcorn is ready!

 

[katatonic2]

Problem for Sparty is that while Fitz is an upgrade on what they had, other programs like PSU, UM, UCLA (look at what Chesney is doing on the recruiting trail) have made significantly better upgrades with regards to their coaching staffs.