So what is this team's ceiling?

QChawks

Heisman
Dec 17, 2022
10,979
23,427
113
Way too early to tell

Assuming that everyone stays healthy I could see a 10th place finish in the B1G and a second round NCAA loss.

Remember, the hawks finished 11th last year with Lucy. Is this years team better? I don’t think so.
 

herkhatescy2

All-Conference
Dec 2, 2024
1,931
2,739
113
Way too early to tell

Assuming that everyone stays healthy I could see a 10th place finish in the B1G and a second round NCAA loss.

Remember, the hawks finished 11th last year with Lucy. Is this years team better? I don’t think so.
If they can avoid the 6 game losing streak like they had last year they should be in good shape to make the sweet 16 or elite 8.
 

Bunsen82

All-American
May 6, 2004
3,243
6,003
113
The ceiling - Final Four. The Floor winning the first round of the tournament. Most likely getting to the sweet 16.

We just beat 2 really solid teams without most likely our 2nd best player for the entirety of 1 game and the majority of another. Chit Chat can create her own shot - facilitate get in the lane - provide 3 point shooting (probably our 2nd best 3 point shooter right now). She would have been a major difference maker in that final 8 minutes when they began to double the post. My biggest worry was we would fall apart against a team with strong defensive effort without Chit Chat. Honestly Stremlow played incredibly well filling in for her.

We have 6 solid players within our system - Heiden, Chit Chat, Stuelke, McCabe, Stremlow and Kylie.

The ceiling depends on 3 bench players and 1 starter-

1. Hays - against elite or very good C's Hays is still a work in progress. No different than Heiden last year. Her limitations show up and just lack of experience. We have seen she can score and has moves against lower competition. That is good. It shows she has the skills to continue to develop into an a very good or elite C at this level. She just needs to continue to work at it.

2. Rodriguez - Watching her is like being on a roller coaster. Here is my take - outside of maybe Heiden she has a higher ceiling than anyone else on the court. Her BB IQ however is poor. She has an outside shot, she has excellent handles, and she can dribble drive at will. She can become a ball hog, she doesn't give consistent effort on defense and rebounding (but has the ability) and gets herself into trouble by being out of control. All correctable things. Assuming you can keep her motivated, she will be a key cog potentially by the end of the year and most certainly in the next 2.

3. Deal - You could put Mallegni or Houston - but they are a tad repetitive and neutralize each other. We have enough depth at the post positions. We could utilize more depth at the guard position and beyond McCabe - in my limited viewing she has the best stroke from 3. She does not have the quickness currently. The defense has improved some since the initial game and she does not appear to be as out of control as she was the initial games. She has figured out something that works with driving to the lane. Personally I would scrap the euro step for now and re-implement and just drive to the lane hard. Try to get a foul and go with it. She is willing to create her shot and has more potential at finishing than Kylie or McCabe. She can still be an extremely good offensive threat and passer. The defense has to be passable.

Starter - McCabe - McCabe has been our 3rd best player this season in my opinion. the defense - good shooting (not great for her), decent handles, clutch plays and willing to drive more. I really want McCabe to become more aggressive on the offensive end. The last 2 games I have see 3 drives to the lane. She needs to continue to do this. I still want her to work on a mid range game and some 1 on 1 game of some sort. If she can become a poor mans Lucy Olsen - this teams ceiling jumps quite a bit. There have been very few mistakes from her this year and she is showing more leadership and confidence.

You need 1 of McCabe or Deal to really blossom as an offensive threat to balance this team to reach its potential in my opinion. The ceiling is still incredibly high. You do need Chit Chat to get healthy and remain healthy but that goes without saying.
 

pablow

All-American
Mar 13, 2010
1,160
6,111
113
I'd like to see Stremlow replace KF in the starting lineup.

McCabe looks very good so far. Unlike KF, opponents have to guard her on the perimeter.

Deal, Rodriguez, and Houston need more minutes. If we hope to make a run in March, we can't do it without them.

If Jan wants to shorten the bench and manage the game - like Miami 2d half - we get nowhere near this team's ceiling.

This is a good team. Turn them loose and let them make their mistakes in December, not March.
 

AFM22

Heisman
Oct 31, 2022
19,100
36,410
113
Right now I think the top 5 UConn, South Carolina, UCLA, Texas, and LSU are looking like the best teams in the country. Godspeed if we get stuck in the bracket that has 2 of them.

Right now the only clear teams ahead of Iowa in the B1G are UCLA and Michigan. USC and Maryland are up there too. I think ceiling is prob 3rd place in the B1G, but realistically around 5-8th place finish.

Outside of the top 5, I think Iowa could go punch-for-punch with any team in the country at the moment.
 

Bunsen82

All-American
May 6, 2004
3,243
6,003
113
Way too early to tell

Assuming that everyone stays healthy I could see a 10th place finish in the B1G and a second round NCAA loss.

Remember, the hawks finished 11th last year with Lucy. Is this years team better? I don’t think so.
We are most certainly better than last year. Heiden vs O'grady is a total mismatch. Syd from last year was not the Syd from previous years. I see Stremlow providing similar play. Good ball handling - aggressive defense and good rebounding. Olsen vs Chit Chat. 2 different players but can provide very similar results. She can create more for post players, has a nice 3 point shot and can drive. She does not have Lucy's pull up game in the mid range.

As the bench - I take the ceiling of Stremlow, Hays, Rodriguez, Deal and Houston over Heiden, Mallegni, McCabe, Stremlow and Guyton.

The post play alone is much better than last year. Its finding more offensive consistency from our guard play.
 
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DukeSlater

All-Conference
Jul 2, 2023
1,910
4,499
113
Way too early to tell

Assuming that everyone stays healthy I could see a 10th place finish in the B1G and a second round NCAA loss.

Remember, the hawks finished 11th last year with Lucy. Is this years team better? I don’t think so.
I would disagree. I think this team is already better than last year, and the ceiling is much higher. Iowa is talented, deep, and young, which means they should continue to improve with every game. When they play UConn in about a month, we'll see what that looks like, but no matter how that one turns out, by March, I think Iowa will have the talent, depth, and experience to be a Final Four contender. The Hawkeyes are a Top Ten team, so with a few fair calls and decent bounces, anything is possible. IMHO, of course.
 

Hawk48

All-Conference
Jun 10, 2005
1,069
1,651
113
I think they could get as high as Sweet 16. They don’t belong in the top 8 this year. Just my opinion of course.
I agree if they make S16 it would be a very good year. Watche UConn and Michigan and they appear to be at a higher level than Hawks. JMO
 
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o_AMAYS

All-Conference
Jan 4, 2023
738
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. . . I think this team is already better than last year, and the ceiling is much higher. . . .

Two of the weaknesses of last year's team were turnovers and free throws. Other than not scheduling a team like Tennessee, not sure Iowa has done much to improve either of these weaknesses, both of which cost Iowa dearly last year. Miami is a bottom half steal/forced turnover team, and Miami gave Iowa troubles. A lot is riding on Chit Chat's shoulders against pressure teams.
 

Bunsen82

All-American
May 6, 2004
3,243
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Two of the weaknesses of last year's team were turnovers and free throws. Other than not scheduling a team like Tennessee, not sure Iowa has done much to improve either of these weaknesses, both of which cost Iowa dearly last year. Miami is a bottom half steal/forced turnover team, and Miami gave Iowa troubles. A lot is riding on Chit Chat's shoulders against pressure teams.
Our ballhandling is light years better than last year. Chit Chat is better than Lucy - Kylie and McCabes handles are both improved and Stremlow looks solid. Deal is a work in progress, but we will see how much we will have to rely on her this year.
 
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citizenHawk1

Senior
Jul 10, 2025
390
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I don't think it looks good with the top 3 or 4 teams in the conference, but they can give a game with the comparable teams. Having watched the UConn-Michigan games, Iowa just seems so young and inconsistent. UConn looks like a roster of pro players. It's just another level when teams like that start stacking talent.

Hopefully Chit-Chat doesn't lose too much through her time recovering from injury and they have time to get better before getting into games that can set back their confidence.
 
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Hawkeye1984

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Jul 29, 2022
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Right now I think the top 5 UConn, South Carolina, UCLA, Texas, and LSU are looking like the best teams in the country. Godspeed if we get stuck in the bracket that has 2 of them.

Right now the only clear teams ahead of Iowa in the B1G are UCLA and Michigan. USC and Maryland are up there too. I think ceiling is prob 3rd place in the B1G, but realistically around 5-8th place finish.

Outside of the top 5, I think Iowa could go punch-for-punch with any team in the country at the moment.
It will be this way almost every single year because of NIL.
 

o_AMAYS

All-Conference
Jan 4, 2023
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Our ballhandling is light years better than last year. Chit Chat is better than Lucy - Kylie and McCabes handles are both improved and Stremlow looks solid. Deal is a work in progress, but we will see how much we will have to rely on her this year.
Agree that Chit Chat seems like a step up in terms of ball security against pressure. Beyond that, hard for me to tell given the competition. Miami is not a big forced-turnover team, and they gave Iowa trouble without Chit Chat.
 
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Legend12

Heisman
Dec 16, 2022
9,964
32,877
113
Our ballhandling is light years better than last year. Chit Chat is better than Lucy - Kylie and McCabes handles are both improved and Stremlow looks solid. Deal is a work in progress, but we will see how much we will have to rely on her this year.

Chit Chat turns it over at a higher % rate than Lucy did.
 

Legend12

Heisman
Dec 16, 2022
9,964
32,877
113
Chit Chat has 1.6 Turnovers per a game - Lucy averaged 3.1 per a game last year. Let alone Chit Chat has much more quickness and even more wiggle than Lucy.

You don't understand statistics, do you?
 

Legend12

Heisman
Dec 16, 2022
9,964
32,877
113
Kevin Smith had more quickness and wiggle than Andre Woolridge.

Super relevant.
 

Legend12

Heisman
Dec 16, 2022
9,964
32,877
113
I do and you're barking up the wrong tree here. Not only does Chit chat turn it over at a lower rate (2.5 vs 3.6 per 40 mins). CW also has a much much better assist to turnover ratio of 3-1 vs 1.6.

Lucy's TO% last year was 15.1%
Chit Chat's TO% this year is 16.4%
 

Bunsen82

All-American
May 6, 2004
3,243
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Kevin Smith had more quickness and wiggle than Andre Woolridge.

Super relevant.
You aren't very smart either. Lets look at similar type opponents and minutes moron.

UNI - Olson 38 minutes - 4 turnovers Wright 29 minutes 4 Turnovers
Drake Olsen 38 minutes 2 turnovers Wright 27 minutes 1 Turnovers

By stats they are almost equivalent. By eye test most would take Chazadi over Olsen on ballhandling - but if you want to die on that hill be my guest. You can go post 3 more times inflating your post count too if you wish trying to make your point.
 

Jonesy5960

Heisman
Feb 1, 2023
5,979
12,323
113
Lucy's TO% last year was 15.1%
Chit Chat's TO% this year is 16.4%
That's nothing but an estimate and a wash. Look I loved Lucy, but she wasn't the pure point guard that Chit Chat is. Assist to turnover is what everyone considers to be the most important stat with respect to that position and CCW's is twice that of Lucy. You want another actual hard stat that takes pace into consideration? CCW has a turnover rate of 3.3 per 100 possessions vs 5.0 for Lucy. You won't find an actual stat that supports your position that CCW turns the ball over at a higher rate and Chit Chat is delivering more assists (7.4 vs 6.0 per 40 min) on top of that. That might very well change over the course of the season, but she's been a more effective and efficient point guard to date.
 
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