Playoff Projections Post Week 4

[wildkit_fan]

Updates from previous weeks:

1. Attempting to incorporate N/S for 1-6A. I just went strictly based on latitude, so if IHSA does some other way .
2. Per tip from 4AFan, one CPL team is removed based on max of 2 teams from certain CPL divisions.

Note- I am quite certain teams that played out of state teams (e.g. ESL) are under seeded because I am not tracking down all of the projected wins for out of state opponents, although I did include the projected wins for MC's wk 1 opponent, since it was only 1 team and made difference in getting #1 seed for 8A.

* Updated to reflect new IHSA enrollment numbers. (e.g. Marist up to 8A, Elgin down to 7A).

 

[CCHS-Fan]

Just a heads up there were enrollment corrections that took place in the last week. Not sure your data source included these updates.

Up to 400 public schools enrollments were changed.

My data source is Steve Soucie.

He has mentioned this has never happened mid-season before.

 

[CCL65]

Is the current year enrollment normally based on the previous years number or this years fall enrollment number?

 

[4Afan]

Updates from previous weeks:

1. Attempting to incorporate N/S for 1-6A. I just went strictly based on latitude, so if IHSA does some other way .
2. Per tip from 4AFan, one CPL team is removed based on max of 2 teams from certain CPL divisions.

Note- I am quite certain teams that played out of state teams (e.g. ESL) are under seeded because I am not tracking down all of the projected wins for out of state opponents, although I did include the projected wins for MC's wk 1 opponent, since it was only 1 team and made difference in getting #1 seed for 8A.

View attachment 926331

FWIW, the IHSA playoff outlook site factors in out of state opponents when calculating up to date playoff points. So if you're using that as your first tie breaker then the IHSA site is up to date.

 

[4Afan]

Just a heads up there were enrollment corrections that took place in the last week. Not sure your data source included these updates.

400 public schools enrollments were changed.

My data source is Steve Soucie.

He has mentioned this has never happened mid-season before.

My guess is that there were updates because this is the first year they went to a one year enrollment cycle vs. a two year enrollment cycle.

 

[AlabamaTimberwolf]

At an enrollment of 310, wouldn't Sullivan be 1A?

 

[4Afan]

At an enrollment of 310, wouldn't Sullivan be 1A?

IHSA current playoff outlook has the 1A cutoff at 302.

 

[AlabamaTimberwolf]

IHSA current playoff outlook has the 1A cutoff at 302.

There's a lot of inconsistency with the IHSA... Surprised I know, being the state of ILL-E-NOISE but whats the issue?

 

[crusader_of_90]

Just a heads up there were enrollment corrections that took place in the last week. Not sure your data source included these updates.

400 public schools enrollments were changed.

My data source is Steve Soucie.

He has mentioned this has never happened mid-season before.

AHHHH - the fix is in!!!

 

[4Afan]

There's a lot of inconsistency with the IHSA... Surprised I know, being the state of ILL-E-NOISE but whats the issue?

See my other post above. I think there were updates due to it now being a one year enrollment cycle instead of two year. Plus I'm pretty sure schools had until the end of the first week of September to submit enrollment numbers to the ISBE, which is what the IHSA uses for enrollment.

 

[crusader_of_90]

Good work!

 

[Topiarydan1]

Marist and Schaumburg in 7A- never thought I'd see the day

 

[wildkit_fan]

FWIW, the IHSA playoff outlook site factors in out of state opponents when calculating up to date playoff points. So if you're using that as your first tie breaker then the IHSA site is up to date.

I could use that, but really I’m projecting out the playoff points at seasons end, so I wouldn’t get that from there.

 

[CCL65]

Marist and Schaumburg in 7A- never thought I'd see the day

Right. IHSA as Marist at 1507 x 1.65 =2,486.55. That’s a big number for 7A

 

[4Afan]

Right. IHSA as Marist at 1507 x 1.65 =2,486.55. That’s a big number for 7A

Actually this week they IHSA playoff outlook has Marist in 8A.

 

[wildkit_fan]

Right. IHSA as Marist at 1507 x 1.65 =2,486.55. That’s a big number for 7A

Class is determined after the 256 team field is selected. I have Maine South as smallest (other than MC) 8A team at 2,489…. But now when I go to IHSA website, looks like they have changed the enrollment numbers as mentioned above. Will update classes tomorrow

 

[Coach Percy]

Wow! No love for 3-1 Westinghouse.......I love it!!!!!

 

[4Afan]

Wow! No love for 3-1 Westinghouse.......I love it!!!!!

Do you anticipate getting 5 wins? Outside of Johnson, Massey has Westinghouse as an underdog in the rest of their games. wildkit_fan uses Massey projections to get his 256 teams.

 

[wildkit_fan]

I've updated the bracket in the initial post to reflect new IHSA enrollment numbers. Few teams changed class. Info on the classes (excluding teams who voluntarily play up):

• 8A: Smallest enrollment, Maine South 2,476
• 7A: Largest, Hinsdale Central 2,402; Smallest, Addison Trail 1,840
• 6A: Largest, Carmel 1,839; Smallest, Crete 1,461
• 5A: Largest, Chatham 1,435; Smallest, Normal (University) 1,032
• 4A: Largest, Decatur (MacArthur) 1,009 ; Smallest, Breese (Central) 628
• 3A: Largest, Macomb 610; Smallest, Stillman Valley 419
• 2A: Largest, West Frankfort 419; Smallest, Newman Central Catholic 302
• 1A: Largest, Arthur (A.-Lovington-Atwood-Hammond) 296

 

[Coach Percy]

Do you anticipate getting 5 wins? Outside of Johnson, Massey has Westinghouse as an underdog in the rest of their games. wildkit_fan uses Massey projections to get his 256 teams.

We will win a minimum of 6. But I love the bulletin board material! We repost all naysayers as more fuel for us.

 

[Still Missing34]

We will win a minimum of 6. But I love the bulletin board material! We repost all naysayers as more fuel for us.

I've heard the computers really have it out for Westinghouse.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

We will win a minimum of 6. But I love the bulletin board material! We repost all naysayers as more fuel for us.

naysayers? He uses Massey predictions for remainder of season results.

 

[Coach Percy]

Lol.....I don't care if it was a Commodore 64. We will make the state playoffs.

 

[4Afan]

I've updated the bracket in the initial post to reflect new IHSA enrollment numbers. Few teams changed class. Info on the classes (excluding teams who voluntarily play up):

• 8A: Smallest enrollment, Maine South 2,476
• 7A: Largest, Hinsdale Central 2,402; Smallest, Addison Trail 1,840
• 6A: Largest, Carmel 1,839; Smallest, Crete 1,461
• 5A: Largest, Chatham 1,435; Smallest, Normal (University) 1,032
• 4A: Largest, Decatur (MacArthur) 1,009 ; Smallest, Breese (Central) 628
• 3A: Largest, Macomb 610; Smallest, Stillman Valley 419
• 2A: Largest, West Frankfort 419; Smallest, Newman Central Catholic 302
• 1A: Largest, Arthur (A.-Lovington-Atwood-Hammond) 296

Will be interested to see if these numbers hold true at the end of the season. Pretty big discrepancy between these projections and what is currently listed on the IHSA playoff outlook in terms of class cut off for enrollments in a few classes.

Current IHSA playoff outlook class breakdown by enrollment:

1A - up to 302
2A - 302-411
3A - 413-548
4A - 550-912
5A - 917-1396
6A - 1397-1851
7A - 1865-2324
8A - 2331 and up

 

[cornerrat#1]

Will be interested to see if these numbers hold true at the end of the season. Pretty big discrepancy between these projections and what is currently listed on the IHSA playoff outlook in terms of class cut off for enrollments in a few classes.

Current IHSA playoff outlook class breakdown by enrollment:

1A - up to 302
2A - 302-411
3A - 413-548
4A - 550-912
5A - 917-1396
6A - 1397-1851
7A - 1865-2324
8A - 2331 and up

All.... Week five historical wise usually produces quite a bit of movement leading into six as it becomes more apparent on what teams aren't going to make it. Postseason picture should be much more clear in a week. Ratsy

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Lol.....I don't care if it was a Commodore 64. We will make the state playoffs.

Cool, I hope you do but there is no naysayer(s), it's a computer algorithm lol.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

 

[3 Yards]

You also predicted you were going to go to Reed Custer and pound them a few years back.

 

[Coach Percy]

You also predicted you were going to go to Reed Custer and pound them a few years back.

Lol......I also said we would beat Elmwood Brimfield the week before and we did. So what does that mean?

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Lol......I also said we would beat Elmwood Brimfield the week before and we did. So what does that mean?

It means you said you would beat one team and did and beat another and didn’t.

 

[Still Missing34]

Lol......I also said we would beat Elmwood Brimfield the week before and we did. So what does that mean?

It means you might not have an unbiased opinion

 

[RPG24]

Loyola is only playing 8 games ?

 

[4Afan]

Loyola is only playing 8 games ?

Yep, they had no week 2 opponent.

 

[crusader_of_90]

Althoff at a 15th seed in 3A is a good place for the Crusaders at 5-4. Maybe they get to 6-3. Will be happy to compete in this class. A couple of rounds and I'd be happy.

 

[Roamin' Catholic]

Althoff at a 15th seed in 3A is a good place for the Crusaders at 5-4. Maybe they get to 6-3. Will be happy to compete in this class. A couple of rounds and I'd be happy.

Feeling the same about QND. Just a firm reminder that getting bumped up certainly sucks now and again. But 95% of the population doesn't give a **** about how we feel about being multiplied up. Can't change the rules, just have to live with it. We'll keep chugging along. At least there's football to be played. No complaints there!

Such is life for the smaller downstate Catholic/Private programs. Maybe we should just start hand picking those rosters like they think we currently do anyways? Maybe we should stop worrying about all the other stuff and just do the cheating they claim we've been guilty of for generations now. Let's fill our cabinets up with all those trophies that are rightfully ours. Let's stop hoping for quarterfinal "competitiveness" and expecting championships. I think that's what they do at the schools that are the actual reason we're all multiplied... but I wouldn't know... success in football isn't something the Good Lord had in the plans for QND unfortunately. But I'll remain hopeful...

 

[3 Yards]

Lol......I also said we would beat Elmwood Brimfield the week before and we did. So what does that mean?

It also means you give bulletin board material yourself.

 

[cornerrat#1]

All.... Triad rips Highland. That blows up the south 4A bracket eeven before more changes coming. Ratsy

 

[AlabamaTimberwolf]

Feeling the same about QND. Just a firm reminder that getting bumped up certainly sucks now and again. But 95% of the population doesn't give a **** about how we feel about being multiplied up. Can't change the rules, just have to live with it. We'll keep chugging along. At least there's football to be played. No complaints there!

Such is life for the smaller downstate Catholic/Private programs. Maybe we should just start hand picking those rosters like they think we currently do anyways? Maybe we should stop worrying about all the other stuff and just do the cheating they claim we've been guilty of for generations now. Let's fill our cabinets up with all those trophies that are rightfully ours. Let's stop hoping for quarterfinal "competitiveness" and expecting championships. I think that's what they do at the schools that are the actual reason we're all multiplied... but I wouldn't know... success in football isn't something the Good Lord had in the plans for QND unfortunately. But I'll remain hopeful...

Those damn "sun worshipers" are always causing trouble!!!

Ya know I gotta give you **** brother!~

 

[PowerI66]

We will win a minimum of 6. But I love the bulletin board material! We repost all naysayers as more fuel for us.

Pressure's on, coach!

 

[cornerrat#1]

All.... Fwiw in the 4A South bracket. Waterloo "upset" Highland this week giving them their third loss. With two remaining games left using Massey projections they would both end up 6-3. Ratsy