The bigger issue is our 3 point defense. I know that link cited that it can hardly be affected but our games provide an opposite conclusion.
Our wins against Clemson (4-18) ; Purdue (7-26); Michigan (3-15); Nebraska (6-18); Maryland (6-25); Iowa(6-27) included the other team missing some wide open looks but it at least appeared to me that our defense affected the other team enough to cause that % especially against Iowa , Purdue and Michigan , where close outs and shot clock violations were plentiful. In the above games we were 7-19;7-14; 11-23;10-18;10-22;2-13. Only Iowa which was a super human defense effort but also with us hitting 2-13 was the only game we did not outshoot our opponents from 3. But giving up no more than 6-7 threes seems like a winning formula.
However , not the only main factor in wins and losses, as we lost at Seton Hall and Penn State giving up 5-21 and 6-18 but only had 4-18 and 5-19. Both those 2 games we simply did not play well overall, shooting , on the glass and turnovers galore . Bad starts did not help.
The other losses to DePaul and Minnesota the 3 point stats were close with DePaul 9-24 and we fouled a3 point shooter making it worse but we shot 10-27 and yesterday’s Minnesota game they shot 13-24 and we shot 12-27 . Both games came down to the wire that we came up short but cannot say we played bad and definitely did not play bad for the road. You could argue DePaul hitting those 5 threes late and Minnesota hitting a ton of 3’s late in the shot clock and reasonably defended , was just bad luck.
That leaves UMASS and Lafayette. UMASS was 16-32 and also fouled a few times and converted 5-6 foul shots so 54 points and we were 3-13. We were outscored 54-9 from 3 and their foul shots . We blew 15-17 point leads in both halves. Should never have happened that we played such bad defense and blown those leads but you cannot say we didn’t play a good road game.
Lafayette was (7-18)but was fouled 3 times and made 8-9 foul shots so really 10-18 to our 4-26.
Both losses on a last second three , luck or bad defense or both. Yes plenty of things we didn’t do before the last shots to win the game easily but still games where we gave up too many threes with not great defense. Illinois was never a game and I am excluding that game but very optimistic we will beat them at home.
7 losses and 4 of the losses either lousy 3 point defense or just bad luck and other than Lafayette where we were atrocious the other 3 road game losses we did not play bad on the road but our defense was not its nasty self. 2 of the losses we did not play well overall at Seton Hall and at Penn State and still had our chances with 5 minutes to go and came up short . Illinois a no show. We are 11-7 but 3-4 more wins right there coming down to last possession .
Overall , Pike has to get the team to either give up no more than 6 or 7 threes home and away and we will likely win 80% of our remaining games.
