OT: Major Winter Storm for Philly-NJ-NYC Area (12-24" very likely) for late Sun (1/31) into Tues (2/2)
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Rgem is a bomb for NJ, with 15-20. And historic for SW areas from Philly to Baltimore, with 20-30. Doesn’t sound realistic
But the common denominator for just about all of the model runs is that north/central NJ (Somerset, Middlesex, etc) is firmly in an 8-16 swath.
No but do you really see Baltimore getting 34 inches?
Neither could be right too...mentally split the difference
National Weather Service
Good evening. Our latest forecast and briefing has been issued for the upcoming major winter storm. Please find the briefing at the link. **Note**: You may have to refresh the page/clear your cache for the latest version to display.
A prolonged Nor’easter will impact the region Sunday afternoon through much of Tuesday.
A major winter storm will affect the region. Precipitation will begin as snow as it arrives SW to NE Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunday night into Monday morning, a mix with or change to sleet and rain is likely from the coast up to near the I-95 corridor. Precipitation changes back to snow by late Monday before winding down Tuesday afternoon.
Significant snowfall is expected, with the heaviest amounts favored over eastern Pennsylvania and central and northern New Jersey. The expected area of heaviest snow has shifted northward today. However, the exact storm track remains uncertain and a shift in track could bring the heavier snow amounts farther north or south. The heaviest snow is likely during the day Monday, when rates could exceed 1 inch per hour in the heaviest bands. Snow will likely continue into Tuesday, but additional accumulation then will be limited.
Strong winds will develop especially near the coast and over the waters with gusts reaching 40 to 50+ mph, strongest on Monday. This could result in power outages. Inland, gusts could reach 35 to 45 mph, creating reduced visibility and very hazardous travel in blowing and drifting snow.
Coastal flooding is likely and could reach moderate levels as early as Monday morning along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay.
Good evening. Our latest forecast and briefing has been issued for the upcoming major winter storm. Please find the briefing at the link. **Note**: You may have to refresh the page/clear your cache for the latest version to display.
A prolonged Nor’easter will impact the region Sunday afternoon through much of Tuesday.
A major winter storm will affect the region. Precipitation will begin as snow as it arrives SW to NE Sunday afternoon and evening. Sunday night into Monday morning, a mix with or change to sleet and rain is likely from the coast up to near the I-95 corridor. Precipitation changes back to snow by late Monday before winding down Tuesday afternoon.
Significant snowfall is expected, with the heaviest amounts favored over eastern Pennsylvania and central and northern New Jersey. The expected area of heaviest snow has shifted northward today. However, the exact storm track remains uncertain and a shift in track could bring the heavier snow amounts farther north or south. The heaviest snow is likely during the day Monday, when rates could exceed 1 inch per hour in the heaviest bands. Snow will likely continue into Tuesday, but additional accumulation then will be limited.
Strong winds will develop especially near the coast and over the waters with gusts reaching 40 to 50+ mph, strongest on Monday. This could result in power outages. Inland, gusts could reach 35 to 45 mph, creating reduced visibility and very hazardous travel in blowing and drifting snow.
Coastal flooding is likely and could reach moderate levels as early as Monday morning along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay.
That's the 18Z GFSv16, the "new and improved" GFS, not the NAM. 18Z NAM is 12" or more for the eastern half of NNJ/CNJ (down into Monmouth) and for all of NYC/HV/LI, with less S/W and N/W of there (8-12").
I LIKE that map. Why are we always posting static maps?
And the first of us has entered the Negotiation Phase...
As predicted, the NWS-Philly upped snowfall forecasts to 12-18" for many and 6-8/8-12" for almost everyone else, except for SENJ and the immediate coast up to about Belmar, as per the maps below, and issued warnings for most of NJ/EPA (pink counties), except for Cumberland/Atlantic/Cape May in the SE, which just have advisories (given a lot of rain and some snow) and Sussex/Carbon/Monroe in NWNJ/PA, which just have watches still, since they're not convinced they'll get enough snow for warnings, yet. NWS-NYC will follow suit in the next hour, presumably and I'll add that map.
4:45 pm edit: NWS-NYC decided not to issue warnings yet (the snow gets there later, so they wait sometimes), but their watches now talk about 6-12". They still haven't updated their map yet.
Also, note that while the NWS-Philly maps show 12-18" for many, via the color, the warnings for that shaded area are actually for 11-15" of snow, as per below, which is basically what I said in the quoted post above, i.e., that 10-15" would be better, but they just don't have that color - time for them to invest in some new colors, lol.
5:15 pm edit: NWS-NYC finally added their updated map, with most of NENJ and some of NYC (surprised not all of NYC and part of LI - they're worried about rain, I guess) in the 12-18" color, although amounts look to be 12-14" (again a 10-15" color would be nice).
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
344 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Lehigh-
Northampton-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Washington, Morristown, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton,
Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown
344 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 11 to
15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
* WHEN...From 5 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Tuesday.
Not going to show all the 18Z models (2x a day is enough), but suffice it to say that they all show a major winter storm still, with most showing 10-16" (with spots up to 20+") for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC including most of NJ (except the SE part/coast in some, due to rain and the far NWNJ on a few, due to less precip), so no signficant overall change in storm expectations.
Here's the NWS regional snowfall map, which I like a lot as its shows all of NJ and nearby parts of states - my guess is NYC on eastward will also be in the orange (12-18") color, which should be 10-15". Need to do some work, which I've been ignoring, lol...
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Cause I think about 3 people on the weather boards know how to do the animation, lol - they are cool...
Anyone mentioning ‘milk’ or ‘bread’ or ‘eggs’ will be banned.
Gotta say these animations are cool - the guys on 33 say you have to have WeatherBell to do that, but if they start posting them, they're worth sharing. At $25/month, I think it's time to sign up, at least for the winter, lol. Here's the one for the 18Z Euro. Big Dog's barking...
Amy Freeze just posted her call on Instagram and it got bigger at 8-12” now for Central Jersey.
No big changes. Spent the day fixing the snowblower and clearing the driveway of kids toys. I'll miss being on air for this one, but also looking forward to my first big storm with my kids. No bust!
John Cifelli's #NJWX
John Cifelli's #NJWX
Latest from Channel 7/Jeff Smith. I need to learn how to draw these. Given what we know now, I would have a general 10-15" for everything NW of a line from about Asbury Park to Philly and just note something like "and locally up to 20"" for that entire area, since we simply don't know where the heaviest bands will set up, but we're almost certain to see some heavy bands in this kind of setup. I really like the NWS map - I'd then have less snow in stages SE of that AP-Philly line, like they do and a bit less than 10" well NW, like in the Poconos. I just have a hard time seeing as low as 6" for most of what's in white.
My biggest quibble on the NWS map is NWS-NYC only going with the 8-12" color east of NYC in LI and coastal CT. I would have that area at 10-15" (if their color palette allowed it, lol), with a bit less in inland CT (maybe 6-10").
My biggest quibble on the NWS map is NWS-NYC only going with the 8-12" color east of NYC in LI and coastal CT. I would have that area at 10-15" (if their color palette allowed it, lol), with a bit less in inland CT (maybe 6-10").
I like the NWS axis better than Jeff's.Latest from Channel 7/Jeff Smith. I need to learn how to draw these. Given what we know now, I would have a general 10-15" for everything NW of a line from about Asbury Park to Philly and just note something like "and locally up to 20"" for that entire area, since we simply don't know where the heaviest bands will set up, but we're almost certain to see some heavy bands in this kind of setup. I really like the NWS map - I'd then have less snow in stages SE of that AP-Philly line, like they do and a bit less than 10" well NW, like in the Poconos. I just have a hard time seeing as low as 6" for most of what's in white.
My biggest quibble on the NWS map is NWS-NYC only going with the 8-12" color east of NYC in LI and coastal CT. I would have that area at 10-15" (if their color palette allowed it, lol), with a bit less in inland CT (maybe 6-10").
Nicely done. I've been saying I think 10-15" is good for the 95 corridor and NW of there, which is close to your 8-14" for there and I would nudge that 10" line a little further east than 95, maybe following 537 from about Mt. Holly to Freehold and then over to maybe Long Branch (except maybe not within 2-3 miles of the water), since we've seen countless storms where interior Monmouth County does as well as 95. And we agree on a decreasing gradient south and east of that line down to just a few inches in much of SE NJ. Love the term "sensitive" for the setup too - been stealing it. :>)
Enjoy the snow with the kids!
BOOM TKR Jink is in affect. Major bust in play!Just got a 5 gallon tin of ethanol free high performance gasoline for my snow thrower. Will that be enough????
Lol
Sounds like she'll fit in with Claire at the Hillsborough Deli
Quick update. 12Z suite is very bullish on a major (8-12") to historic (12-20") snowstorm for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region starting late Sunday and going through Tuesday morning, as this one looks like a slow mover, given the "block" (-NAO) slowing the movement NE of the coastal low. I expect warnings to be hoisted either at 4 pm or maybe they'll wait until 4 am and I expect the NWS snowfall forecasts to go up to 12-18" for some/many (since the NWS doesn't have a 10-15" swath, which I think would be better) and the media mets will likely up theirs appreciably also. We'll see soon, although we're still ~36 hours from the 12Z model initialization to the storm start, which means that modest to maybe even significant changes are still possible, given the high sensitivity of this Miller B setup to fairly small changes in key system evolution variables. Anyway, here are the main models.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...-2-12-2/page/267/?tab=comments#comment-261149
Not going to show all the 18Z models (2x a day is enough), but suffice it to say that they all show a major winter storm still, with most showing 10-16" (with spots up to 20+") for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC including most of NJ (except the SE part/coast in some, due to rain and the far NWNJ on a few, due to less precip), so no signficant overall change in storm expectations.
Here's the NWS regional snowfall map, which I like a lot as its shows all of NJ and nearby parts of states - my guess is NYC on eastward will also be in the orange (12-18") color, which should be 10-15". Need to do some work, which I've been ignoring, lol...
It's Saturday night during the time of COVID, so why not another live 0Z model thread? The linked post just below has last night's thread, which has a lot of background info on the models, so I won't repeat that here and will focus on sharing the model graphics and any key comments. I had to use a link rather than the actual post, since I tried to use the post and the board said I couldn't post more than 20 images - now we know, lol.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...e-over-150-inches-of-snow.210476/post-4929875
First up, as always, is the 0Z NAM, which is an absolute bomb for all of CNJ/NNJ (>12" everywhere and near 20" close to NYC) and is a nuclear bomb for NYC/LI, with 20-26" of snow. However snowfall drops off S of a line from about Trenton to Brick, but not steeply as the 6" line is still from Chester to AC. There's a serious snow hole for DC/Balt, which get 2 feet in some models. If the DC peeps get hosed again (they've had <1" snow over last winter and this one so far), I fear for them, lol.
Next up is the RGEM (Canadian mesoscale model) and if the NAM was a bomb, I don't even know what to call this, as it's off-the-charts, especially in E-PA (with a max of 51"), but also for most of NJ and NYC.
Next is the GFS, which is a ho-hum 12-20" for almost all of the area, except SE NJ and the new and improved GFSv16, which will be replacing the old GFS. How do we know it's improved? Well it has a maximum for the entire run, right over my house with 24". Holy crap if we come anywhere close to these models it's going to be a tough couple of days around here for many, as if COVID wasn't enough.
JFC look at the 0Z Canadian (CMC). No words...
And now for the outlier again, somewhat - the 0Z UK. The map might look like it's just less precip compared to the others, but actually, the thermal profile has the surface going above 32F for much of Monday afternoon/evening when the heaviest precip is falling. That occurs as far inland as the TPK and while 1.5-2.0" of liquid falls (15-20" worth of snow) only areas west of the TPK look like all/mostly snow. NYC for example probably sees half the precip as rain.
The problem with this, as I was discussing with some mets on 33andrain is that the layers above at 925 mbar, 850 mbar and 750 mbar never get above 32F. The key question is whether the flakes melt in the column or not and with maybe only a few hundred feet near the surface above 32F, I doubt the sub-32F flakes (it's well below 32F higher up in the column) will melt while traversing that small warm layer. If I knew where the temp went above 32F and the depth of that layer, I could do those calcs - or at least I could've 30 years ago, lol, as that's chem eng'g 101 stuff. Also, if the flakes don't melt (it takes time for them to melt) 33-34F wet snow falling on 32F snow at the surface will not melt. So, it's possible the model thermals are off - or not, as it's also very possible the model is seeing this correctly. As an aside, there are many things one could question for the very snowy models (they simply look too high), too, so it's not like I'm just picking on this one.
And the 0Z Euro, which looks about identical to the 12Z run and maybe a little less snowy than the 18Z run, but still a big hit with 12-18" widespread for the area. Temps did get up to above 32F at the surface near the end of the run, but after almost all the precip fell (ends as some snizzle) - will have to keep an eye on that, as even a 25 mile shift NW in the track would bring rain to much of LI and the CNJ coast and maybe to the 95 corridor.
1:30 am Edit: Final comments after this thread. All the usual caveats apply regarding what could still go wrong with the forecast, but we have almost model consensus right now (and have basically had it since last night and certainly this afternoon) only about 24 hours from the model data input to the start of the storm Sunday evening (it’s a 36-48 hour storm!) on one of the biggest snowstorms we’ve seen in this area, especially for areas north of 276/195 in EPA, CNJ, NNJ, and SENY/NYC/LI. So, we’re close enough now that any major deviations from a major (8-12”) to historic (12-20” with even more possible for some) snowstorm are unlikely, although not impossible, as we know from past history. Philly is very close to being in this consensus, too, while most of SNJ, especially towards the coast, is not, although they could get in on snows greater than 12” too, but the consensus isn’t there at this time.
I’m nearly certain the NWS (and media) snowfall forecasts will go up at 4 am from a general 8-12”/10-15” for most probably to at least 12-18” for most (and maybe 18-24” for some, although hard to say exactly where that might be), with lesser amounts south of 276/195 (8-12”?) and in SENJ (4-8”?). Near blizzard conditions are also possible on Monday with low visibilities when it's snowing heavily and winds gusting to 30-40 mph near the coast. And where the snow is wet and heavy, downed trees/limbs/wires could lead to power outages. One more risk: there will be widespread minor tidal flooding throughout the coastal areas. This is looking like a serious and potentially dangerous storm. Stay safe everyone.
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It's Saturday night during the time of COVID, so why not another live 0Z model thread? The linked post just below has last night's thread, which has a lot of background info on the models, so I won't repeat that here and will focus on sharing the model graphics and any key comments. I had to use a link rather than the actual post, since I tried to use the post and the board said I couldn't post more than 20 images - now we know, lol.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...e-over-150-inches-of-snow.210476/post-4929875
First up, as always, is the 0Z NAM, which is an absolute bomb for all of CNJ/NNJ (>12" everywhere and near 20" close to NYC) and is a nuclear bomb for NYC/LI, with 20-26" of snow. However snowfall drops off S of a line from about Trenton to Brick, but not steeply as the 6" line is still from Chester to AC. There's a serious snow hole for DC/Balt, which get 2 feet in some models. If the DC peeps get hosed again (they've had <1" snow over last winter and this one so far), I fear for them, lol.
Next up is the RGEM (Canadian mesoscale model) and if the NAM was a bomb, I don't even know what to call this, as it's off-the-charts, especially in E-PA (with a max of 51"), but also for most of NJ and NYC.
That RGEM is just clown shoes
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