RUTGERS 60 Illinois 58 in front of 8,000 at the RAC
THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-ILLINOIS PREDICTION THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
This is a must game we have to win. Get out of the gate quickly and never take the foot off the pedal.
Do we know definitively that Ayo is or isn't playing? Predictions are fun but to really make one this is a rather significant variable.
But that aside, I agree with the poster above that it is important for Geo to start. Geo, Mathis, Yeboah, and Johnson need to be on the court as much as possible.
But that aside, I agree with the poster above that it is important for Geo to start. Geo, Mathis, Yeboah, and Johnson need to be on the court as much as possible.
So if he starts and plays 32 minutes we win by 6, but if he comes off the bench and plays 32 minutes we lose by 12?
Going with the double reverse prediction. Like most fans I am whiny and emotional. I think our players are average and they are tired. We played way over our head for for a 6 week span. The team we saw in the beginning of the year and the past 6 games is indicative of what we really are.
Time to be rational.....
RAC is a home court advantage
You are what you are over a big sample size of 25
AYo injury probably impacts game
We almost beat them there
RHJ and Caleb will have good games
RU 64
Ill 51
Time to be rational.....
RAC is a home court advantage
You are what you are over a big sample size of 25
AYo injury probably impacts game
We almost beat them there
RHJ and Caleb will have good games
RU 64
Ill 51
Interestingly, even in our last 6 games.
Three of them (Purdue, Northwestern, and Ohio St) our adj offensive efficiency was above our season average. A fourth (Nebraska) was very close to the average.
Two of them (Purdue and Maryland) were above average defensive efforts. Unfortunately the Maryland one came in our worst offensive game of the year.
Our last two games were our second worst (Northwestern) and third worst (Ohio St) adjusted defensive performances of the year.
Our average AdjO - AdjD for the season is 17.404, the SD is 14.290.
Last six:
Neb 6.4
Pur 32.1
Mich 8.6
Mary 13.1
Northwestern 1.9
Ohio St 5.8
Where would we be ranked if we played like these games every game?
Neb 111th
Pur 1st
Mich 83rd
Mary 33rd
Northwestern 150th
Ohio St 116th
Did I have a point? I don't know.
Three of them (Purdue, Northwestern, and Ohio St) our adj offensive efficiency was above our season average. A fourth (Nebraska) was very close to the average.
Two of them (Purdue and Maryland) were above average defensive efforts. Unfortunately the Maryland one came in our worst offensive game of the year.
Our last two games were our second worst (Northwestern) and third worst (Ohio St) adjusted defensive performances of the year.
Our average AdjO - AdjD for the season is 17.404, the SD is 14.290.
Last six:
Neb 6.4
Pur 32.1
Mich 8.6
Mary 13.1
Northwestern 1.9
Ohio St 5.8
Where would we be ranked if we played like these games every game?
Neb 111th
Pur 1st
Mich 83rd
Mary 33rd
Northwestern 150th
Ohio St 116th
Did I have a point? I don't know.
Efforts of the year, best to worst
Seton Hall <= This one puts us #1 by far, with an implied 95.4% chance of beating Kansas on a neutral floor
Niagara
Lafayette
Purdue
Indiana
Minnesota
@Nebraska <= #1 Kansas overall rating is ~equal to the effort in this game
Penn St
Wisconsin
Stephen F. Austin
Massachusetts
---- TOP 25 Level ---
Illinois
Maryland
Iowa
NJIT
---- TOP 50 Level ---
Michigan St
Michigan
---- TOP 100 Level ---
vs Nebraska
Ohio St
Drexel
Northwestern
---- TOP 150 Level ---
Bryant
---- TOP 200 Level ----
Pittsburgh
St Bonaventure <= this one would put us at about #255 (Saint Joseph's) as a sustained performance
Seton Hall <= This one puts us #1 by far, with an implied 95.4% chance of beating Kansas on a neutral floor
Niagara
Lafayette
Purdue
Indiana
Minnesota
@Nebraska <= #1 Kansas overall rating is ~equal to the effort in this game
Penn St
Wisconsin
Stephen F. Austin
Massachusetts
---- TOP 25 Level ---
Illinois
Maryland
Iowa
NJIT
---- TOP 50 Level ---
Michigan St
Michigan
---- TOP 100 Level ---
vs Nebraska
Ohio St
Drexel
Northwestern
---- TOP 150 Level ---
Bryant
---- TOP 200 Level ----
Pittsburgh
St Bonaventure <= this one would put us at about #255 (Saint Joseph's) as a sustained performance
Says we have played like a major conference bottom feeder in 4 of those 6 games
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So far that is 6.5 (counting @Nebraska as a tie) games out of 24 D1 games with effort worthy of a #1 ranking, 27%, and 11/24 worthy of top 25 (46%)
Last season, we had 2/31 (6.5%) worthy of #1 (Eastern Michigan and @ Iowa) and 6/31 (19%) (the two mentioned + @ Penn St, @ Michigan St, Fair Dick, Wisconsin) worthy of top 25.
Our worst performance last year, St John's, would have put us #336, just behind Alabama St. Overall, we had four performances worse than this years St Bonny game; St. John's, Fordham, Columbia, and Indiana
Last season, we had 2/31 (6.5%) worthy of #1 (Eastern Michigan and @ Iowa) and 6/31 (19%) (the two mentioned + @ Penn St, @ Michigan St, Fair Dick, Wisconsin) worthy of top 25.
Our worst performance last year, St John's, would have put us #336, just behind Alabama St. Overall, we had four performances worse than this years St Bonny game; St. John's, Fordham, Columbia, and Indiana
I expect to see Rutgers blown out of the RAC by 22 points or win by 2 or 22
This game I see game as having no middle ground for Illinois So we have a 75% chance of winning since I can't see Illinois winning a close game at the RAC who does? We need to beat ourselves at home to lose at home.
so
Rutgers 76 - 54
Rutgers 68 - 61
Rutgers at the free throw line with 8.8 sec left with score tied at 55 and somebody hits the front end of a one & one and end up missing the 2nd and the ball bounces the right way for us and we get 2 more foul shots and miss the 1st & make the 2nd 57-55 Rutgers
or
Illinois 85 -63
This game I see game as having no middle ground for Illinois So we have a 75% chance of winning since I can't see Illinois winning a close game at the RAC who does? We need to beat ourselves at home to lose at home.
so
Rutgers 76 - 54
Rutgers 68 - 61
Rutgers at the free throw line with 8.8 sec left with score tied at 55 and somebody hits the front end of a one & one and end up missing the 2nd and the ball bounces the right way for us and we get 2 more foul shots and miss the 1st & make the 2nd 57-55 Rutgers
or
Illinois 85 -63
I wonder if our defense is the same most games but because our m-o is to sag off of the corners, in some games our opponents get hot from deep.
Another clue to this is how confident our opponents are when shooting threes against us. Their shots almost seem effortless, like they were instructed to run to a spot and wait, then pull the trigger on a catch and shoot in rhythm.
Another clue to this is how confident our opponents are when shooting threes against us. Their shots almost seem effortless, like they were instructed to run to a spot and wait, then pull the trigger on a catch and shoot in rhythm.
Our backs are almost to the wall in terms of getting an NCAA bid. That fact, home court advantage, and them having a good player hurt leads to a close/low scoring win. 66- 60 sounds about right.
Our defense has been struggling giving open 3's but Illinois doesnt take a lot of 3's so this is a better matchup for us. If Dosunmu is out or plays but isnt himself we should be able to ride the RAC to another victory.
It would help if we could get at least one out of Myles or Ron to snap out of their funks
It would help if we could get at least one out of Myles or Ron to snap out of their funks
rather have Myles be used as a passer out of the low post than ask him to score against Cockburn. I want Myles to give us 25 minutes (al 25 allocated when cockburn in game) rebound and defend and get 3 OREB, everything else is gravy
Myles doesn't need to be going one on one against Kofi to score. If the offense is flowing he can get a couple lobs or dump offs and score a few off offensive rebounds.
Also, when I say funk, it doesnt mean only scoring. When Myles is engaged he rebounds and protects the rim better. We need a more active Myles
We lost @Pitt by 11 and @MSU by 12 in early Dec, our 2 worst losses. Haven't lost a game by more than 6 since but we will lose by the same amount as @MSU to a team on a 3 game losing streak at home that we are 16-0, all because Geo doesn't start? That sounds as bad plum and his epic collapse discussion.
Score will be higher than a rock fight this time.
Rutgers 70 Illinois 62