Covid 5.0
- Thread starter Ewooc
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@ThereIsNoPlace at least its not as bad as your contribution to this board, so I've got that going for me.
This,overall,shouldn't be overlooked. While it may bea nightmare in places, in others, they'll be the ones getting the food, the supplies to those areas.
Having the diversity in spread of the wuhan virus, it allows for certain needs to be met.
I live in an area where several counties have zero infection around mine. We are keeping it at home here, hospitals are as prepped as they can be.
But, many people are still working,safely.
Very Interesting Link - Click Here - I think what we are starting to see is that we a lot of people have been sick with this, but it hasn't been diagnosed. It's still nothing to fool around with, but the doom and gloom would start to diminish if we start trying to really get the numbers correct and not give the most doom and gloom message possible.
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b - I have no idea how this works, how long it would take or anything. Maybe @dinglefritz could weigh in, but it sounds like we really need to beef up antibody testing to actually see the magnitude. Now that probably brings in another layer of red tape, but it sounds like in Britain and other countries that there has been a mystery "flu" going around and no one could put their finger on it. Probably has been Corona the entire time and not as doom and gloom as people say.
what none of these data take into account is the effect on sick nonCOIVD patients
we are seeing patients who unfortunately cannot be offered the surgery they would have received a month ago - they are now too high risk because systems can no longer offer the same degree of postop care they require - these are COVID related deaths but not figured in the numbers
we have trauma patients attempting to be cared for for hours and hours in the emergency room rather than in a proper ICU - without an trauma intensivist or ICU nurse caring for them - some will die as a result
early stage lung cancer surgery is being postponed for a month+ with the hope that it remains early stage when the hospital is able to do this surgery again
the standard of care in an overwhelmed hospital is going to decline sharply for all patients -not just COVID patients
I guess hopefully the good that comes out of all of this hysteria is to fix a lot of the problems that seem to be popping up. No way we will get to everything, but hopefully, at least in the short term, we will try to address as many of these shortcomings as we can and make ourselves better prepared.
yes - now that this is being taken seriously by most - some areas will have more time to prepare than others
Coronavirus death toll estimated too high. By orders of magnitude.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the...64?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/Bvu45bydFP
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the...64?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/Bvu45bydFP
"Give me a pitcher of beer and plate of hot wings or give me death.
- Patrick Henry, American Patriot and lover of the good things.
Sam Adams, brewer and Patriot, agrees.
Do you mean the potential estimates too high or are you saying the body counts are inflated? I cannot read the above article because I am not a subscriber.
The following has to give you some concern?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/italy-army-coffins-coronavirus/
The following has to give you some concern?
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/italy-army-coffins-coronavirus/
Sam Adams, brewer and Patriot, agrees.
Founding Father statues have some pretty badass poses.
We are prepared for every imaginable military threat to the nation and our way of life
the same approach needs to occur with other equally plausible threats.
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It actually has. We have federal power to really get on top of this, it just hasn't been activated.
They have tests now that can determine if you have already had the virus and didn't know it. This will be huge, as it will allow these people to get on with their lives.
This is the biggest garbage article ever. Somehow over 10% of the state is all going to be in hospital at the same time? Wrong. This is negligent and irresponsible.
So we are rationing masks and tests because no one has decided to push the start button on all these awesome plans that exist?
No, that's not what it is saying, but if there is a spike in cases of really any kind, we will run out of room in hospitals very, very quickly.
Nebraska has 7,000 hospital beds, many of which are already occupied.
The population of Nebraska overall is roughly 2 million.
If 30% get the virus (600,000) and 5-10% require hospitalization (30,000 to 60,000), even over the course of a couple of months, we will have far more need than there is space. Diseases don't operate on an even curve, they tend to spike during an outbreak, but even if we divide this out over 6 months and have all 7,000 beds available immediately every month(like I said, both of which are not possible, I'm just writing this out to try to explain this to you), that means 5,000-10,000 cases per month requiring hospitalization. And this is not even to speak of ventilators, of which there are far less than even beds.
So, no, it's not a garbage article.
The above, by the way, is at the 30% estimation. If it were to rise as high as even 50%, well, now the problem is even worse. 70% would be catastrophic.
I don't think it's a garbage article, but we keep hearing all of this doom and gloom that has yet to materialize... I guess the worst can still happen, but outside of Lincoln and Omaha there are only like 20 confirmed cases. I agree with all of the numbers that folks are posting if we hit the worst case senario, but we aren't there yet as are many states. With millions probably already being affected and dealing with it at home I don't quite think the mass hospitalization is going to be the ginormous problem we are making it out to be. I'm probably entirely wrong, I'm still just waiting for this to materialize to the levels a lot experts in this field keep projecting.
Just give it a couple of weeks and we'll know if we've successfully flattened the curve.
If you want to see how bad things can actually be, look at New York, Seattle, etc.
Population of Italy: 60 million
Population of Nebraska: abt 2 million
Infected in Italy as of today's # after their supposed massive outbreak: 69K
Your projection for Nebraska: 600K
Idk man, sounds like garbage.
the more rural your setting, and the more spread out your cities the flatter the curve (I hope)
the geography provides some built in social distancing that was in place prior to any mandates
dense population areas are at a huge disadvantage ...likewise large hospitals are akin to a cruise ship with the exception that a high percentage of the "passengers" are known to be infected and can't be isolated in that health care workers have to be in contact on multiple occasions per day as well as seeing other patients
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The Italian outbreak has been going on for about three weeks. Please see these graphs to show how their cases have spiked:
https://www.axios.com/italy-coronav...ses-2adb0fc7-6ab5-4b7c-9a55-bc6897494dc6.html
Here is today's update:
March 25 (GMT)
- 5210 new cases and 683 new deaths in Italy. Protezione Civile chief Borrelli, the person usually holding the daily press conference, is at home with a fever, while the former chief Bertolaso is now hospitalized in Milan after having tested positive to the virus.
74,386
Deaths:
7,503
Recovered:
9,362
That is a slightly over 10% death rate, because their hospitals were overwhelmed extremely quickly. That is catastrophic.
Many cases in Italy are located in the north of the country. So it isn't right to take these numbers against 60 million, you'd want to adjust that down to the population of the epicenter area.
Here is an analysis of what Italy has been going through:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-center-lessons.html
Hopefully, Nebraska's early efforts, such as closing schools and businesses and being very, very public about the importance of social isolating, will make a situation like this unlikely here. Unfortunately, areas like New York, Miami, Seattle, New Orleans, and places in California may look like this within 2 weeks.
So, again, no, not garbage, you just aren't thinking about this clearly.
That is correct. We have some natural advantages here in Nebraska, in that we have two small cities that do not experience a ton of international travel, and a huge rural state. That will "probably" help us flatten our curve.
Well shoot, why stop there? What of 100% get it?
What if 200% get it?
What if 200% get double the virus does that mean it's 400%?
Be afraid. Live in fear. Don't listen to garbage math and idiotic projections.
Well you can thank Obama for the depleted stock for starters. And about everything else if you do a little research.
https://www.breitbart.com/health/20...pleted-stockpile-of-n95-masks-never-restored/
The United States was ranked the best-prepared country in the world to handle a pandemic in late 2019 by the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHCHS)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/us...r-pandemics-johns-hopkins-study-found-in-2019
Says the guy posting ny times articles.
I mean the entire world has 375k cases, but sure Nebraska could have 600K.
You want to count the population of nebraska, but not the population of Italy.
Any more selective math you want to do to help your case?
I dunno, I prefer to be aware of how bad something could get, not ignore what is going on. But hey, you do you, and that is not a garbage article.
I'm basing my math on what experts are saying is likely to happen in the next few weeks to months, but a lot depends on how well these measures we're implementing work.
Also, if experts, and by proxy, I myself, am wrong, that's fine. Good. We won't experience anywhere near as bad of an outbreak as was feared.
If these projections prove to be even remotely accurate, however, we're going to have some pretty rough problems.
Yeah, but that is also what the news gives us. I have a ton of friends in both areas, and Seattle especially they are saying it isn't as crazy as it is being portrayed. It'll be interesting once we can start to tag real numbers to this thing how much we did or didn't over react.
You could die every time you drive on the road, but you do it almost every single day. That's "how bad it could get."
So a shortage of masks during a crisis that became obvious at least 2.5 months ago is the fault of the president who left office over 3 years ago, based on a pandemic that happened 11 years ago?
Why didn't we start prepping for this in January? As well as test kits? Ventilators? That Obama's fault, too? If the stockpile needed to be replenished to prepare for a pandemic, and that actually mattered to this administration, wouldn't that have been done already?
Linking fiery garbage like Breitbart and Fox News says a lot.
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