Started the week around 30 in rpi...

[8dog]

Finished at 42. Quit scheduling valley and alcorn. You know their records will be awful every yr. 6-28 combined thus far this yr.

Lets also look at tn martin the last 4 yrs: 17-35, 9-42, 11-40, 13-41. But yeah, lets dial them up for two home games.

Scheduling tip: if a rainout helps you more than a win, dont schedule that team.

 

[philduckworth]

Finished at 42. Quit scheduling valley and alcorn. You know their records will be awful every yr. 6-28 combined thus far this yr.

Scheduling tip: if a rainout helps you more than a win, dont schedule that team.

So frustrating and infuriating.

 

[msstate7]

If we win on the weekends, our rpi will be fine. I'm not crazy about games that knock our rpi down some, but I do like getting guys PT that normally wouldn't get it.

 

[engie]

Yeah -- our preseason projected SOS was only about 5% tougher than the #1 national SOS last year(Florida). Let's schedule a couple more elite teams for the midweek. LOL @ you trying to assess RPI via that mechanism anyway.

That Valley game is going to be key in allowing us to be more successful in midweek games going forward by establishing a midweek starter that pounds the zone and will give us a chance to win every time out. Which is good -- considering 4 of our remaining 7 midweek games are against teams inside the top 100 that could very well beat us.

 

[8dog]

Im not asking for elite teams so drop the straw man argument and the arrogance. Im not sure what mechanism you are LOL'ing at but there is no argument to be made that valley and alcorn and tn martin are anything but terrible for our rpi. Avoid those games and you can more easily absorb losses to oral roberts or someone like oregon underperforming.

And I honestly think an argument could be nade that playing teams as bad as valley let our pitchers think they can get away with stuff they wont be able to against typical midweek teams.

 

[patdog]

Agree and disagree. Overall, you're right, our SOS this year is going to be outstanding, for a change. And I've got no problem with a single game vs. Alcorn, Valley and JSU. I'd even rotate 1 of those each year to Smith Wills and let them be the home team if they want to. But

Let's schedule a couple more elite teams for the midweek.

Just because you don't schedule a UT-Martin doesn't mean the only alternative is an elite team. A better option would be to schedule a LA Tech instead. Still a pretty easy win, but nowhere near the RPI hit UT-Martin is.

That Valley game is going to be key in allowing us to be more successful in midweek games going forward by establishing a midweek starter that pounds the zone and will give us a chance to win every time out.

That Valley game doesn't establish a thing. Other than that our players are at least above-average 6A high-school level players. Which we already knew.

 

[philduckworth]

Yeah -- our preseason projected SOS was only about 5% tougher than the #1 national SOS last year(Florida). Let's schedule a couple more elite teams for the midweek. LOL @ you trying to assess RPI via that mechanism anyway.

That Valley game is going to be key in allowing us to be more successful in midweek games going forward by establishing a midweek starter that pounds the zone and will give us a chance to win every time out. Which is good -- considering 4 of our remaining 7 midweek games are against teams inside the top 100 that could very well beat us.

Why are you trying to come from a different angle? The poster is simply saying playing Valley and Alcorn is awful. I'm not sure how anyone could disagree with that notion. It's really dumb for Cohen/Stricklin to schedule these games.

 

[121Josey]

If we win on the weekends, our rpi will be fine.

Just win, baby! The big question is what's the difference between chalking up a loss to a decent team while playing reserves and drilling a team without a pulse while the reserves play the late innings.

I didn't like having positional starters playing into the late innings against MVS. It was a loss for the RPI and PT, but a win for the stats.

 

[BriantheDawg]

Engie? Drop the arrogance?? LOLOLOLOL

 

[paindonthurt_]

Why is it dumb? We have to schedule some cupcakes, right?

Why not keep SOME NOT ALL of that money in state?

We play 50 to 60 games. Some of them are going to be cupcakes. Some of them are going to be ****** like Valley or JSU. If thats the case, then just play them once or twice. 2 games.

 

[OleMissLogo]

Yeah -- our preseason projected SOS was only about 5% tougher than the #1 national SOS last year(Florida). Let's schedule a couple more elite teams for the midweek. LOL @ you trying to assess RPI via that mechanism anyway.

That Valley game is going to be key in allowing us to be more successful in midweek games going forward by establishing a midweek starter that pounds the zone and will give us a chance to win every time out. Which is good -- considering 4 of our remaining 7 midweek games are against teams inside the top 100 that could very well beat us.

WarrenNolan has State's predicted SOS at 57. I know you used the previous year's RPI to make that claim, but that's just laughable. Cause teams don't change from one year to the next, right?

 

[patdog]

Warren Nolan is just a) wrong or b) incomplete at this point. Last week, I think his predicted SOS for us was #79. We'll have at least a top 20 SOS (probably top 10) at the end of the season.

 

[8dog]

No we dont have to schedule teams this bad.

 

[msstate7]

Warren Nolan is just a) wrong or b) incomplete at this point. Last week, I think his predicted SOS for us was #79. We'll have at least a top 20 SOS (probably top 10) at the end of the season.

Yep. At ucla, at usc, at vandy x3, at Florida x3, and at lsu x3... That's potential 4 road trips to top 10 teams.

 

[OleMissLogo]

Warren Nolan is just a) wrong or b) incomplete at this point. Last week, I think his predicted SOS for us was #79. We'll have at least a top 20 SOS (probably top 10) at the end of the season.

Year - MSU SOS- # games vs Top 50 RPI - # games vs sub-200

2015 - 39 - 22 - 8
2014 - 19 - 25 - 9
2013 - 2 - 50 - 5 (granted 14 of the 50 vs RPI 50 were postseason)
2012 - 13 - 30 - 4
2011 - 11 - 36 - 7
2010 - 8 - 31 - 6
2009 - 27 - 31 - 7


So, yes, under Cohen most of MSU's seasons have been top 20 SOS.

If current RPIs hold, then State will play only 24 games against Top 50 RPI and 9 vs sub-200. Obviously RPIs won't hold exactly, but those numbers will probably be pretty close at the end of the regular season. Even if the SOS gets into the low teens, that's a very far cry from "5% tougher than the #1 national SOS last year" as Engie claims.

That's my only point. That his comparison is laughable.

 

[patdog]

If current RPIs hold

They won't. I expect our final SOS will be higher than the low teens.

I agree though, engie does go overboard. And I'm actually very surprised to see that the SEC has kept our overall SOS as high as it has throughout Cohen's tenure, because traditionally his OOC schedule is just a bunch of cupcakes. .

 

[OleMissLogo]

Also, just to show how laughable "5% tougher than the #1 SOS last year" is:

Florida's SOS was 0.5782 (tied with Vandy for #1). #20 was UCF at 0.5538.

The difference between 1st and 20th (0.0244) was the same as the difference between 20th and 66th. Meaning that once you get near the top, the differences become pretty huge.

The Top 10 had Opponent records around .600, 11-20 were around .580.

State's current SOS is .5532 (so around 20th last season) and the Opponent record is around .580 (this is not just Opponents played, but all on the schedule, so the SEC teams are included).

So I agree that it will be around 20 this season. I was using WarrenNolan's predicted to really just show that it isn't anywhere close to 5% tougher than 2015 Florida.

 

[KurtRambis4]

I think it will

be better than "around 20", barring everyone in the SEC bombing.

This schedule is quite similar to 2013, where we were near the top.

 

[engie]

Im not asking for elite teams so drop the straw man argument and the arrogance. Im not sure what mechanism you are LOL'ing at but there is no argument to be made that valley and alcorn and tn martin are anything but terrible for our rpi. Avoid those games and you can more easily absorb losses to oral roberts or someone like oregon underperforming.

And I honestly think an argument could be nade that playing teams as bad as valley let our pitchers think they can get away with stuff they wont be able to against typical midweek teams.

How are they terrible for our RPI? It hurts SOS -- and our SOS is going to finish very near the top 5 in the country. So, what you are clamoring for -- is not only scheduling what was expected to be the toughest schedule in the country in at least the last two years -- you actually want us to make us tougher. It's a ridiculous position.

 

[engie]

Agree and disagree. Overall, you're right, our SOS this year is going to be outstanding, for a change. And I've got no problem with a single game vs. Alcorn, Valley and JSU. I'd even rotate 1 of those each year to Smith Wills and let them be the home team if they want to. But Just because you don't schedule a UT-Martin doesn't mean the only alternative is an elite team.

So -- essentially -- you are still bitching about 4 layup games in a 56 game regular season? Got it.

A better option would be to schedule a LA Tech instead. Still a pretty easy win, but nowhere near the RPI hit UT-Martin is.

Again -- the predicted #1 SOS in the country isn't good enough for you. It makes no sense.

That Valley game doesn't establish a thing. Other than that our players are at least above-average 6A high-school level players. Which we already knew.

Remember you said it when Pilkington gets the ball and gives us a quality outing against a very good USM squad on Tuesday. But I'm guessing you'll counter with something about the confidence-booster game that provided the foundation having nothing at all to do with that outcome...

 

[engie]

Engie? Drop the arrogance?? LOLOLOLOL

Fire CohenZ!11!1 That damn clown!11!1

 

[engie]

WarrenNolan has State's predicted SOS at 57. I know you used the previous year's RPI to make that claim, but that's just laughable. Cause teams don't change from one year to the next, right?

RPI is barely even a valid formula at this point -- yet you think what it is telling you is more valid than the initial assessment? Remind me that you said all this when it's a top 10 schedule at the end of the year.

The initial argument was scheduling anyway. You don't get to make out the schedule 20 games in. The fact is -- we scheduled what we thought would be and what was reasonably projected to be the toughest SOS in the country this year.

 

[engie]

Year - MSU SOS- # games vs Top 50 RPI - # games vs sub-200

2015 - 39 - 22 - 8
2014 - 19 - 25 - 9
2013 - 2 - 50 - 5 (granted 14 of the 50 vs RPI 50 were postseason)
2012 - 13 - 30 - 4
2011 - 11 - 36 - 7
2010 - 8 - 31 - 6
2009 - 27 - 31 - 7


So, yes, under Cohen most of MSU's seasons have been top 20 SOS.

If current RPIs hold, then State will play only 24 games against Top 50 RPI and 9 vs sub-200. Obviously RPIs won't hold exactly, but those numbers will probably be pretty close at the end of the regular season. Even if the SOS gets into the low teens, that's a very far cry from "5% tougher than the #1 national SOS last year" as Engie claims.

That's my only point. That his comparison is laughable.

Nice math. I'll do you one better.

Florida Atlantic (Final RPI) #17
Florida Atlantic #17
South Dakota State #164
South Dakota State #164
Memphis #77
Massachusetts-Lowell #213
Nicholls State #84
Massachusetts-Lowell #213
Nicholls State #84
Alcorn State #291
UCLA #7
USC #27
Oklahoma #87
South Alabama #78
Oregon #66
Oregon #66
Oregon #66
Eastern Kentucky #265
Oral Roberts #43
Vanderbilt #4
Vanderbilt #4
Vanderbilt #4
Mississippi Valley State #298
Georgia #92
Georgia #92
Georgia #92
Southern Miss #58
Ole Miss #39
Ole Miss #39
Ole Miss #39
Tennessee-Martin #279
Tennessee-Martin #279
Florida #1
Florida #1
Florida #1
Texas A&M #5
Texas A&M #5
Texas A&M #5
ULM #211
LSU #3
LSU #3
LSU #3
Ole Miss #39
Alabama #45
Alabama #45
Alabama #45
Missouri #56
Missouri #56
Missouri #56
Troy #125
Auburn #26
Auburn #26
Auburn #26
Arkansas #21
Arkansas #21
Arkansas #21

Average RPI - 74.9 regular season

Best national SOS last year(Florida) average RPI - 76.58 regular season

So tell me again how my comparison is laughable? Or are we going to continue to play make believe on scheduling being done midseason after teams have been assessed for the season -- in order for you to pretend to call me wrong about something?

 

[Bulldogg31]

Engie, this is awesome.

Would you mind taking a look at Vandy's schedule? I believe that before playing us their schedule was horrendous.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

Almost as bad as Ole Miss scheduling a 3 game series with Grambling. I think we should drop a SWAC game every year and replace it with USM. We only play them once a year and they are always a solid RPI team that we usually beat. I'd actually like to see us play them 3-4 times a year. Maybe put one of those games in Biloxi.

 

[8dog]

By playing them, it hurts our rpi even if we win. How do you not get that? Again, a rainout is better than beating them. And by looking at their history, we know that when we schedule them.

You are ok with that. I am not. Its stubborn.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

He's already my nominee for DDDY. Please let him dig himself a deeper hole.

 

[patdog]

I do agree we need to go back to scheduling USM 2-3 times per season. It's ridiculous to only play them once. But it's not really a big deal to me as long as we have other legitimate OOC games, which we do this year.

 

[patdog]

You're relentless, aren't you.

Not bitching about the schedule. I've said many times it's a very good schedule overall. Generally speaking though, playing 150ish RPI teams is better than playing 250ish teams. Still pretty easy wins and don't hurt the SOS as much.

I have no idea what Pilkington is going to do vs USM and nobody else does either. Madison Central's ace could look good against Valley. That doesn't mean Pilkington won't be a very good midweek starter for us. Just that he hasn't proven anything yet.

 

[engie]

By playing them, it hurts our rpi even if we win. How do you not get that?

Again -- do a search. I've explained rpi in detail quite a few times here. It's apparent you don't get it and are pretty new to following it in baseball on a micro basis.

No -- beating them did not hurt our rpi. It didn't help, but it didn't hurt. Vandy losing midweek at home is what hurt. And there is still a ~ 10 spot fluctuation right now depending on opponents and opponents opponents weeks.

When we are sitting at home Sunday and our rpi fluctuates 5 spots up or 5 spots down -- then we can assess that if we just took every day off, we'd be national champs! That -- or if we played every day -- we'd be #1 for sure! This discussion is every bit as ridiculous. You simply do not understand the game if you don't get the need for an occasional game against a team like that.

I've been a schedule critiquer all along here. Had a pretty good melt last year when it came out and the noncon was terrible and we had scheduled out our entire margin of error. But critiquing this schedule for TWO total SWAC games is just laughably ridiculous.

 

[8dog]

I know as much as you do about baseball and rpi as you do. I can assure you that one opponent like vandy losing one more game doesnt hurt nearly as much as mixing a 2-13 record into your opponents' total record does. Boyd tracks these type games most years and highlights these games as those that hurt you no matter what.

It makes no sense to schedule games you know will hurt your rpi. Puts more pressure on the other games.

 

[engie]

On a given night -- a 150ish team will beat you. That's the disconnect. You need a couple games that you prettymuch can not lose to develop roles and confidence in roles. We will play 10% of our games this year against such teams. Maximum. There is a negligible SOS effect between those two teams over what is pushing a 60 game schedule before rpi is actually in play. Worrying about RPI on a nightly basis is cart before the horse. You need a couple against those types of teams. Not pulling an Arkansas, but a couple.

We are never going back to Hattiesburg under Cohen so unless Biloxi can entice us -- or they decide to start coming to Starkville without return trips -- that isn't going to change. Really bad deal down there the last trip we took involving Lane Burroughs' wife.

You say I can't know about Pilkington -- but you argued that I couldn't know about this team either. I know what I saw and it isn't all quantifiable. Other than the 80% strikes pounding it down in the zone part. So we will see Tuesday night.

 

[engie]

I know as much as you do about baseball and rpi as you do. I can assure you that one opponent like vandy losing one more game doesnt hurt nearly as much as mixing a 2-13 record into your opponents' total record does. Boyd tracks these type games most years and highlights these games as those that hurt you no matter what.

It makes no sense to schedule games you know will hurt your rpi. Puts more pressure on the other games.

Show me where Boyd does this. The only thing scheduling 2-3 of those games hurt is if you manage to lose one of them. Loss on SOS, gain on WP. Net effect negligible over the course of a season.

And your last two sentences are still beyond ridiculous. The only way it "hurts" rpi is via SOS. If SOS is top 10 -- you are literally bitching in the macro sense because it wasn't top 3-4. That's about as fathomable as the average rugbdawg thread. But I'm done arguing with you about it because I can't understand it for you.

 

[OleMissLogo]

Because last season means exactly jack and ****. Last season's Final RPI isn't any indicator of team quality for this season, unless you are also arguing that State is equal to 132 for the SOS of every opponent y'all play this season.

Do you really not see the flaw in that logic?

 

[Go Budaw]

Warren Nolan is just a) wrong or b) incomplete at this point. Last week, I think his predicted SOS for us was #79. We'll have at least a top 20 SOS (probably top 10) at the end of the season.

I'm not complaining about the schedule by any means, but I'm not quite sure our SOS is going to end up as high as some are predicting. There are currently at least 6 other SEC teams with a higher SOS than us right now, and most of those are in the top 10 or 20. With the bulk of the nonconference games having already been played for just about everybody, you'll likely see the SOS for those SEC teams stay high or climb even higher as they accumulate games in conference play. I expect ours to climb higher as well, but its going to be difficult for us to get into that top 10 range based on what we already know about our nonconference opponents, and its going to be especially hard for our SOS to leapfrog those other 6 SEC teams. Teams like Oregon and Oklahoma aren't helping us nearly as much as we thought they would, either.

 

[OleMissLogo]

Apparently you've never looked at Boyd's site. He hasn't updated for this season, but here is State's 2015 schedule:

http://boydsworld.com/sa/mississippi_state.html

Essentially, once you hit 250 the game automatically hurts your RPI, even if you win on the road. Last season State had 3 such games. This season, current RPI says 8.

It's becoming apparent you don't really understand RPI if you are seriously arguing that those games aren't overall negative to your RPI unless you lose.

 

[bierto]

Because last season means exactly jack and ****. Last season's Final RPI isn't any indicator of team quality for this season, unless you are also arguing that State is equal to 132 for the SOS of every opponent y'all play this season.

Do you really not see the flaw in that logic?

When one is trying to create a schedule a year out, please explain what other than last years rpi is a good indicator of difficulty of schedule?

Unless we hire a ridiculous number of scots to figure on teams underclassmen, last years results is the only indicator we have to go by to try and put together a difficult schedule. And by this metric our schedule would be countrys most difficult based off last year.

 

[OleMissLogo]

2013 was so far to the top due to the long postseason run against all Top 50 teams.

Boyd's ISR SOS has State at 139 right now, which only includes teams played. SEC schedule will obviously bump that up a good bit, but that's a long jump to make.

 

[wpmusm]

We are never going back to Hattiesburg under Cohen so unless Biloxi can entice us -- or they decide to start coming to Starkville without return trips -- that isn't going to change. Really bad deal down there the last trip we took involving Lane Burroughs' wife.

Right. I know Cohen will never come back to Hattiesburg, so I'd like to play 1 in Pearl and 1 in Biloxi. Probably not going to happen though.

FWIW, Burroughs brought his Northwestern State team down here a couple weeks ago for a weekend series. Not sure if we ironed things out with him, but the incident in 2010 would have been handled much better by our current administration (compared to when Giannini was running things).

 

[8dog]

There it is engie

Maybe you should "do a search"